Plenty to keep investors on edge today.

Tuesday, February 17, 9:25 a.m.

Will the economy be affected again this winter by the continuing deep freeze in the snowbound northeast?

Government offices in Washington are closed today due to overnight snowfall.

Will the port strikes on the west coast become serious enough to affect the economy? Ships have not been able to unload cargo for six days so far.

The Eurogroup failed to reach a debt extension agreement with Greece yesterday as had been hoped. Hopes have shifted to talks over the next few days.

The cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine seems to be an iffy thing, as some fighting continued yesterday.

Worries about the potential for deflation were not helped by the reports that India’s Wholesale Price Index fell to minus 0.4% in January. It puts increasing pressure on India’s central bank to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation in the U.K. fell from 0.5% in December to 0.3%, its lowest level since 1960.

Another Fed President has added to the chorus of Fed officials opting for the Fed to prepare markets to expect the Fed to begin hiking interest rates in June. Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland region Fed, says the Fed needs to remove its assurance that “it will be patient” in raising rates at its next meeting, opening the door for a rate increase in June. 

Will investors be concerned by the news that billionaire hedge funder David Tepper has apparently turned bearish again. Management at his fund revealed it cut its equity holdings by a whopping 40% in the 4th quarter, including all of its Apple shares.

All this as the market has reached the point where it is either near an upside breakout, or just near the potential overhead resistance at the previous peaks where breakouts seemed imminent but failed.

021415c


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Presidents Day holiday.


European Markets closed down yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed down 0.4%. France’s CAC closed down 0.2%. Belgium closed down 0.4%. Denmark closed down 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece plunged 3.8%.  Ireland closed down 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.2%. Netherlands closed down 0.5%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed up 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.5%. Switzerland closed up 0.7%.

Asian Markets closed almost flat last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed down 0.1%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed down 1.3%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.1%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is down 0.4%. France’s CAC is down 0.1%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Denmark is up 1.4%. Finland is down 0.2%. Greece is down 1.0%. Ireland is down 0.5%. Italy is up 0.6%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is down 0.2%. Portugal is up 1.4%. Spain is up 0.3%. Switzerland is up 0.1%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down 0.4% at $52.58 a barrel.

Gold is down $15 an ounce at $1,212 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened but busy week for economic reports, including Housing Starts, the Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on the holiday yesterday.

This morning’s report so far is that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index declined from 9.95 to 7.78 in February, still above 0 and positive, but weaker than expected.

Still to come are the Housing Market Index, and E-Commerce Retail Sales, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.

Pre-open indicators are somewhat negative.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 20 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

About those stock market ‘breakouts’.

Saturday, February 14, 12 noon.

Yahoo Finance: “At record high, U.S. stocks look to extend breakout”

Associated Press: ”U.S. stocks closed at record high Friday” 

MarketWatch was more accurate: “The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 end at record highs.”

We’re hoping, but it can hardly be classified as a breakout at this point.

More like being at potential resistance where previous breakout attempts failed.

021415a

021415b

021415c

Would you really classify even the S&P 500 (next chart), which did close at a fractional new high as a breakout? I see at least four previous occasions last year where such ‘breakouts’ were actually short-term peaks.

So although we are hoping this will actually be a breakout it’s too early to celebrate just yet.

021415d

We have similar headlines regarding Europe:

“European markets close at record highs”. Well, at least that’s what a Wall Street Journal and other headlines said.

I believe they meant the three major markets of Germany, France, and to some degree the U.K. closed at record highs.

But it’s certainly not true of the majority of European markets. Just a few examples:

021315a

021315b

021315d

Or an overall European index.

021315c


Is U.S. Dollar at an important top?

The dollar has certainly been on a rocket ride since last summer when global economic and currency problems, particularly the euro-zone and its euro, became obvious.

But did the dollar become dangerously overbought and over-popular in the process? It is certainly extended above its long-term 200-day m.a., and technical indicators are high in their overbought zones.

021415e

And in the short-term chart the technical indicators have turned mixed, while the dollar has formed a potential short-term double top.

021415f

Monday’s EuroGroup meeting and whether it reaches an agreement with Greece that keeps Greece in the eurozone may be important to the dollar’s next move. A breakout or a top?


To read my latest newspaper column click here:   Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

A quiet positive day with little volatility. Volume was about average at 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 46 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.6%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.6%.

Gold closed up $8 an ounce at $1,229 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down another 1.0%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 2.2%. China closed up 1.0%. Hong Kong closed up 1.1%. India closed up 1.0%. Indonesia closed up 0.6%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed up 0.7%. New Zealand closed up 0.7%. Singapore closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed up 0.8%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

European markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed 1.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 0.4%. France’s CAC closed up 0.7%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 0.9%. Finland closed up 0.7%. Greece surged up 5.6%.  Ireland closed down 0.2%. Italy closed up 1.0%. Netherlands closed up 1.0%. Norway closed up 1.4%. Portugal closed up 1.6%. Spain closed up 1.7%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.


Global markets for the week. 

Another big week in the U.S., and somewhat in Europe. Big declines again for utilities, and bonds.

THIS WEEK (Feb. 13)
DJIA 18019 +1.1%
S&P 500 2096 +2.0%
NYSE 11042 +1.8%
NASDAQ 4893 +3.1%
NASD 100 4384 +3.7%
Russ 2000 1223 +1.5%
DJTransprts 9034 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 594 -3.2%
XOI Oils 1,415 +3.1%
Gold bull. 1,229 -0.4%
GoldStcks 77.12 +0.3%
Canada 15264 +1.2%
London 6873 +0.3%
Germany 10963 +1.1%
France 4759 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,682 +0.1%
Japan 17913 +1.5%
Australia 5835 +1.1%
S. Korea 1957 +0.1%
India 29094 +1.3%
Indonesia 5374 +0.6%
Brazil 50635 +3.8%
Mexico 43072 +0.8%
China 3356 +4.2%
LAST WEEK (Feb. 6)
DJIA 17824 +3.9%
S&P 500 2055 +3.1%
NYSE 10847 +2.9%
NASDAQ 4744 +2.4%
NASD 100 4228 +1.9%
Russ 2000 1205 +3.4%
DJTransprts 8932 +3.3%
DJ Utilities 614 -3.7%
XOI Oils 1,372 +5.2%
Gold bull. 1,234 -3.8%
GoldStcks 76.92 -3.1%
Canada 15083 +2.8%
London 6853 +1.5%
Germany 10846 +1.4%
France 4691 +1.9%
Hong Kong 24,679 +0.7%
Japan 17648 -0.2%
Australia 5774 +4.0%
S. Korea 1955 +0.3%
India 28717 -1.6%
Indonesia 5342 +1.0%
Brazil 48792 +4.0%
Mexico 42715 +4.3%
China 3222 -4.2%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Jan. 30)
DJIA 17164 -2.9%
S&P 500 1994 -2.8%
NYSE 10537 -2.3%
NASDAQ 4635 -2.6%
NASD 100 4148 -3.0%
Russ 2000 1165 -1.9%
DJTransprts 8649 -3.7%
DJ Utilities 637 -1.6%
XOI Oils 1,304 -1.1%
Gold bull. 1,283 -0.9%
GoldStcks 79.40 +1.4%
Canada 14673 -0.7%
London 6749 -1.2%
Germany 10694 +0.4%
France 4604 -0.8%
Hong Kong 24,507 -1.4%
Japan 17674 +0.9%
Australia 5551 +1.5%
S. Korea 1949 +0.7%
India 29182 -0.3%
Indonesia 5289 -0.6%
Brazil 46907 -3.8%
Mexico 40950 -4.0%
China 3363 -4.2%


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In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened but busy week for economic reports, including Housing Starts, the Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:   Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

What happened to global markets moving in tandem?

Thursday, February 12, 9:30 a.m.

What happened to the history of global economies and markets usually moving in tandem with each other, economies into recessions and recoveries together, stock markets rising together in bull markets, and rolling over into bear markets in tandem? When one region sneezes the rest catch a cold, and all those other clichés that marked the long historical pattern.

Hey, it couldn’t be otherwise right? After all, more than ever it is one global economy, each region and individual country more dependent on each other than ever, as trading partners, as providers of the various resources each has and others need, in global financial transactions, and so on.

Not any more it seems. Central banks have become the driving forces of markets.

They said it was going to take coordinated actions on their part to prevent the 2008 global meltdown from worsening into a full-fledged Great Depression. And they pulled that off.

But since then it has been every country for itself. And it shows.

021215b

021215a

021215c

021215d

It’s not likely to change any time soon, with the U.S. Fed having ended its QE stimulus last year, and thinking about beginning to raise interest rates next year, while central banks in Europe, China, Japan, are cutting rates and launching new stimulus efforts.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter from yesterday afternoon is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A mixed and flat day at the close, but a swing of 150 points between intraday low and high for the Dow before closing flat. Volume only 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 6 points, not measureable as a percentage. The S&P 500 closed unchanged. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.4%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 2.4%.

Gold closed down $12 an ounce at $1,219.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.4%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.2%.


European Markets closed down some yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed down 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.4%. Belgium closed down 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.8%. Finland closed down 0.1%. Greece plunged 4.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.8%. Italy closed down 0.8%. Netherlands closed up 1.0%. Norway closed down 1.9%. Portugal closed down 1.3%. Spain closed down 1.3%. Switzerland closed down 0.5%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.7%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.4%. China closed up 0.5%. Hong Kong closed up 0.4%. India closed up 1.0%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed up 1.9%. Malaysia closed down 0.6%. New Zealand closed down 0.7%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.7%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.1%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.1%. The German DAX is up 1.7%. France’s CAC is up 1.3%. Belgium is up 0.7%. Denmark is up 0.3%. Finland is up 1.1%. Greece is up 4.6%. Ireland is up 0.1%. Italy is up 2.2%. Netherlands is up 0.8%. Norway is up 1.3%. Portugal is up 2.0%. Spain is up 1.8%. Switzerland is down 0.1%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up 2.3% at $49.97 a barrel.

Gold is up $7 an ounce at $1,226 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a very light week for economic reports, but will include the Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s reports were that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined from 100.4 in December to 97.9 in January, but still at a high level of optimism. And the JOLTS report showed U.S. jobs openings rose 3.7% to 5.03 million in December, the highest since 2001, and labor turnover (separations) – layoffs, workers who quit, and people fired – rose to 4.89 million, the highest since 2008. For all of 2014, 58.3 million were hired, and 55.4 million lost or left their jobs.

Yesterday’s only report was the weekly EIA petroleum report, which showed an increase in crude oil inventories of 4.9 million barrels last week, substantially more than consensus forecast of a 3.4 million barrel increase.

This morning’s only reports are that new weekly unemployment claims jumped by 25,000 last week to 304,000. The four-week m.a. fell by 3,250 to 289,750. And Retail Sales fell 0.8% in January, the 2nd straight month of declines, after a decline of 0.9% in December. 

The reports have taken the pre-open indicators well off their previous highs, but they remain positive.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 50 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter from yesterday afternoon is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Can relief from Grexit threat break market out of its funk?

Tuesday, February 10, 9:25 a.m.

The U.S. market peaked on December 29 and in spite of triple-digit moves by the Dow in one direction or the other almost every day, it has gone nowhere since.

021015c

It’s not that it has not had numerous potential catalysts to break it out of the trading range in one direction or the other. But each piece of either good or bad news has had an effect for only a few days.

After reaching the top of the range again last Thursday, the market has been down two straight days since.

But this morning has come good news again, some potential relief on the euro-zone crisis.

First the newly elected Greek government said yesterday it will propose to the Eurogroup, meeting to decide its fate Wednesday, that Greece will agree to implement 70% of the reforms included in its current bailout agreement.

That was followed this morning by a report that the European Union commission will propose a 6-month extension of Greece’s debt obligations.

On those reports U.S. stock market futures spiked up to indicate a triple-digit gain by the Dow at the open.

Will the Grexit relief have enough legs to break the market out of its sideways range to the upside?

Or will it be just another in the string of triple digit moves taking place in both directions that have the market going nowhere – marking time for what?

Big players acting before bond yields begin to rise?

Normally large corporations awash in excess cash do not borrow more just because they can. That is, when interest rates and bond yields are in a normal range. But with bond yields at record lows, the temptation is apparently just too much, especially with bond buyers willing to lend them large sums of money for next to nothing.

Apple, already sitting on an astounding $178 billion in cash, borrowed an additional $6.5 billion with its issuance on Monday of another $6.5 billion in bonds. Taking advantage of the low yields and willing buyers, Apple’s debt through bond sales has gone from 0 in 2012 to $36 billion in 2014, and now higher.

Microsoft is joining the party. Already sitting on $85 billion in cash, it is selling $7 billion in Microsoft corporate bonds, split into maturities of 5, 7, 10, 20, 30, and for the first time in its history, 40-years.

So far this year, AIG and Union Pacific have also borrowed for the long-term at the ultra-low rates, including debt (bonds) not maturing for 40-years.

A money management firm spokesman said “For a borrower like these large corporations it’s almost a no-brainer: they are raising cash and locking in record low rates for a very long period of time.”

021015a

But for the lenders, that is the buyers of the bonds????

With yields at a record 15-year low (bond prices at record highs after a 15-year bond bull market) might the timing of locking in those rates for a very long time be just a bit off? Like, is it not likely that at some point bond yields will rise back to normal levels and bond prices will plunge, should they need to sell those bonds at any time before they mature?


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A somewhat negative day. Volume; 0.75 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 95 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.8%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.0%.

Gold closed up $8 an ounce at $1,241 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.2%.


European Markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed down 1.7%. France’s CAC closed down 0.9%. Belgium closed down 1.1%. Denmark closed down 0.7%. Finland closed down 1.4%. Greece plunged 4.8%.  Ireland closed down 0.6%. Italy closed down 1.9%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%. Norway closed up 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.8%. Spain closed down 2.0%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.2%. China closed up 1.5%. Hong Kong closed up 0.1%. India closed up 0.5%. Indonesia closed down 0.5%. Japan closed down 0.3%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed up 0.5%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed down 0.4%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.1%. The German DAX is up 1.0%. France’s CAC is up 1.3%. Belgium is up 0.9%. Denmark is up 0.9%. Finland is up 0.5%. Greece is up 7.0%. Ireland is up 0.9%. Italy is up 1.8%. Netherlands is up 0.8%. Norway is down 0.6%. Portugal is up 0.5%. Spain is up 1.5%. Switzerland is down 0.3%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down 0.8% at $52.49 a barrel.

Gold is down $5 an ounce at $1,236 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a very light week for economic reports, but will include the Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This mornings report so far was that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined from 100.4 in December to 97.9 in January, but still at a high level of optimism. Still to come is the JOLTS report, which will be released at 10 a.m.

Pre-open indicators were somewhat positive all morning, and then spiked up on the report of a potential compromise on the euro-zone crisis regarding Greece.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 105 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
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Did the week’s spikes and plunges mean anything?

Saturday, February 7, 12 noon.

After being down four of the previous five weeks, it was good to see the big rally this week.

Some of the short-term moves were dramatic in both directions.

Stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down.

020715n

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But did they mean anything, such as the beginning of longer term reversals, or were they just one-week wonders to alleviate the short-term overbought or oversold conditions above and beneath 50-day moving averages?

The intermediate-term charts say the jury is still out on all four situations.

Bonds?

020715d

Stocks?

020715i

Other Voices:

Michael Hartnett, global strategist, BoA/Merrill Lynch: “Volatility is in a win-win: Either growth recovers, in which case the Fed raises rates and bond yields are simply too low; or growth does not recover, and the risk of currency wars, dramatic shifts toward fiscal indulgence, or debt default, will grow very quickly. Either way, volatility will rise.”

On the price of oil: Sentiment still very bearish. Could that be a positive? We’ll just follow our technical indicators on oil and the energy sector.

John Kilduff, co-founder Again Capital: “I still believe oil is going down to $30 to $33 area . . . . . . . . What you saw over the past several days was technical in nature, a short squeeze.”

Ari Wald, chief of technical analysis, Oppenheimer & Co.: “It is too early to expect major upside for the price of oil. Back in ’09, it took four months of stabilization. That’s what I want to see before I expect significant upside in the price of oil. Major resistance at $57 to $60. Sell it into those levels. Strength should be sold.”

On the Fed raising interest rates:

Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst, The Lindsey Group: "The Fed is fast running out of excuses. . . . The Fed’s game of rationalizing zero interest rates has no touch with reality.”

Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed: “There is a need to look through low inflation as temporary. It’s difficult to justify the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates.”

Jack Welsh, former CEO of G.E.: “The Fed would be crazy to raise rates in the current economic environment. . . . It does nothing at all for the U.S. economy to whack it now with everybody around the world easing, easing, easing.”

Warren Buffett: “I think it is going to be very tough to raise rates when you’ve got what is going on around the world. . . . It would exacerbate the problem of the strong dollar and have a lot of international repercussions.”

Monthly strength period came through again.

On the blog week before last we showed this chart and said “We need to see short-term trendline supports hold, and that could happen, at least based on a market pattern that has a pretty good record.

The ‘monthly strength period’ (the last two days of the month and the first four trading days of the following month) is due to begin today and run through next week.

The market tends to make gains during the period thanks to the extra chunks of money that flow into the market at the end of each month, much of which flows automatically into the market. Those sources include monthly stock and mutual fund dividends, usually ear-marked for automatic re-investment, employers’ monthly contributions to employees’ 401k and IRA plans, investors following a dollar cost averaging monthly investment plan, etc.”

The pattern did come through. the support levels held and the market experienced its biggest weekly gain in some time.

020715m

The pattern was due to end on Thursday, and the Dow closed up another 211 points on Thursday and then closed down yesterday.

The next short-term pattern?


To read my latest newspaper column click here: The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out Wednesday.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

A downside reversal in the afternoon to a negative close. The Dow was up 70 points in the morning, but sold off in the afternoon and was down 121 points just before the close before bouncing back to close down only 60 points. Volume remained quite high with 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 60 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.7%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg plunged 4.0%.

Gold closed down $27 an ounce at $1,235 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP surged up 1.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 1.8%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.2%. China closed down 1.9%. Hong Kong closed down 0.4%. India closed down 0.5%. Indonesia closed up 1.2%. Japan closed up 0.8%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.6%. Thailand closed up 0.4%.

European markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed down 0.5%. France’s CAC closed down 0.3%. Belgium closed down 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.8%. Finland closed down 0.1%. Greece closed down 2.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.3%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.2%. Spain closed up 0.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.


Global markets for the week. 

A big week in the U.S. as volatility continues. Big jump in the price of oil, and resource and commodity producing countries Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, but big decline in gold? Big declines for safe havens; utilities, and bonds.

THIS WEEK (Feb. 6)
DJIA 17824 +3.9%
S&P 500 2055 +3.1%
NYSE 10847 +2.9%
NASDAQ 4744 +2.4%
NASD 100 4228 +1.9%
Russ 2000 1205 +3.4%
DJTransprts 8932 +3.3%
DJ Utilities 614 -3.7%
XOI Oils 1,372 +5.2%
Gold bull. 1,234 -3.8%
GoldStcks 76.92 -3.1%
Canada 15083 +2.8%
London 6853 +1.5%
Germany 10846 +1.4%
France 4691 +1.9%
Hong Kong 24,679 +0.7%
Japan 17648 -0.2%
Australia 5774 +4.0%
S. Korea 1955 +0.3%
India 28717 -1.6%
Indonesia 5342 +1.0%
Brazil 48792 +4.0%
Mexico 42715 +4.3%
China 3222 -4.2%
LAST WEEK (Jan. 30)
DJIA 17164 -2.9%
S&P 500 1994 -2.8%
NYSE 10537 -2.3%
NASDAQ 4635 -2.6%
NASD 100 4148 -3.0%
Russ 2000 1165 -1.9%
DJTransprts 8649 -3.7%
DJ Utilities 637 -1.6%
XOI Oils 1,304 -1.1%
Gold bull. 1,283 -0.9%
GoldStcks 79.40 +1.4%
Canada 14673 -0.7%
London 6749 -1.2%
Germany 10694 +0.4%
France 4604 -0.8%
Hong Kong 24,507 -1.4%
Japan 17674 +0.9%
Australia 5551 +1.5%
S. Korea 1949 +0.7%
India 29182 -0.3%
Indonesia 5289 -0.6%
Brazil 46907 -3.8%
Mexico 40950 -4.0%
China 3363 -4.2%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Jan. 23)
DJIA 17672 +0.9%
S&P 500 2051 +1.6%
NYSE 10788 +1.2%
NASDAQ 4757 +2.7%
NASD 100 4278 +3.3%
Russ 2000 1188 +1.0%
DJTransprts 8981 +2.5%
DJ Utilities 648 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,319 +3.0%
Gold bull. 1,295 +1.4%
GoldStcks 78.33 -1.5%
Canada 14779 +3.3%
London 6832 +4.3%
Germany 10649 +4.7%
France 4640 +6.0%
Hong Kong 24,850 + 3.1%
Japan 17511 +3.8%
Australia 5468 +3.6%
S. Korea 1936 +2.5%
India 29278 +4.1%
Indonesia 5323 +3.4%
Brazil 48775 -0.5%
Mexico 42649 +3.0%
China 3512 -0.7%


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a very light week for economic reports, but will include the Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here: The Party is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out Wednesday.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


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Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

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