Will 4th Quarter Earnings Provide Upside Market Volatility?

Tuesday, January 13, 9:25 a.m.

Of the two main concerns for markets lately, oil prices continue to plunge, while signs increase that the ECB is readying a big QE type stimulus for the 18-nation euro-zone.

011314a

European markets seem to be reacting (positively) to the latter, while the U.S. market seems more concerned about the oil price decline.

Meanwhile, the 4th quarter earnings reporting season has begun in the U.S.

As always, it began with Alcoa’s report after the close yesterday. Alcoa reported a turnaround from a loss of $2.19 a share in the 4th quarter of last year to a profit of 33 cents a share this time, which of course beat Wall Street’s estimate of 26 cents.

Major banks report next and are expected to disappoint. In fact, estimates for 4th quarter earnings overall are not expected to be as positive as recent quarters.

That does leave more room for surprises to be to the upside.

And the market could use a few positive surprises from some direction.

011315b


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half 

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is a hotline from last evening, and there will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A negative day on the further plunge in oil prices and the energy sector. European markets not as concerned. Volume was just under 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 96 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.7%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.0%. The small stock Russell 2000 closed down 0.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.3%.

Gold closed up $16 an ounce at $1,232.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.6%.

European Markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed unchanged. The German DAX closed up 1.4%. France’s CAC closed up 1.2%. Belgium closed up 0.3%. Denmark closed up 0.7%. Finland closed up 0.2%. Greece surged up 3.8%.  Ireland closed down 0.1%. Italy closed up 1.0%%. Netherlands closed up 0.7%. Norway closed down 1.4%. Portugal closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.8%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.3%. China closed up 0.2%. Hong Kong closed up 0.8%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.5%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed up 0.6%. New Zealand closed up 0.5%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.6%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up quite strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.7%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.5%. The German DAX is up 1.2%. France’s CAC is up 1.3%. Belgium is up 1.2%. Denmark is up 0.8%. Finland is up 1.0%. Greece is up 2.1%. Ireland is up 0.9%. Italy is up 1.3%. Netherlands is up 0.9%. Norway is up 0.8%. Portugal is up 1.2%. Spain is up 1.3%. Switzerland is up 0.9%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down another 2.9%, and under $45 a barrel at 44.72.

Gold is up $5 an ounce at $1,239 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a fairly quiet week for important economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book and several others. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only economic report so far is that the Small Business Optimism Index rose again in December, rising to 100.4 form 98.1 in November. Still to come is the Labor Department’s JOLTS Report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which will be released at 10 a.m.

Our pre-open indicators, already positive, have become more so.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 150 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half 

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is a hotline from last evening, and there will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Is the nerve-wracking volatility grinding you down?

Saturday, January 10, 12:30 p.m.

Market volatility continues, with more than enough catalysts; the seemingly endless plunge in oil prices and its growing impact on important global economies and trading partners; the up and down uncertainties in the euro-zone; the up and down uncertainties on when the Fed will begin to raise interest rates (in a few months or not until next year?), and so on.

As I have been saying for some time, it is not going to go away (until some of those situations are resolved one way or the other).

Volatility has a potentially troublesome history. The repeated losses by those traders trying to catch tops and bottoms, and the nerve-wracking ups and downs in investor portfolios, tends to move people to give up and withdraw from the market ‘until it sorts itself out’, creating a downdraft from either increased selling, or a lack of buying.

Volatility in markets that have been rising and then turn sideways with volatility continuing but making no further progress, ‘high level churning’ as Stan Weinstein used to call it, has often been a sign of a potential market top.

In the other direction, old-time brokerage firm founder Richard Wyckoff back in the early 1900’s, said the same thing in his memoirs about the emotional impact of volatility at market bottoms: “In a decline many will hold on hoping for a rally that will get them out at higher prices. But if they get a rally they don’t sell because the rally raises their bullish hopes again. But the whipsawing volatility at the bottom grinds them down and they do finally give up.”

So volatility is not something to laugh off. It can have an impact by itself regardless of whether surrounding conditions are bullish or bearish.

So far the volatility in the U.S. is not of the ‘going nowhere sideways churning’ Weinstein referred to, as it continues to follow a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, going somewhere but with nerve-wracking instability.

011015a

If you think it’s been brutal in the U.S., have a look at a few other global markets, in which the volatility is just as brutal, but unfortunately in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

011015b

011015c

011015d

It’s not just the volatility that is of concern, but the negative divergence between the positive U.S. market and so many global markets outside of the U.S.


 

“Failure to prepare is essentially preparing to fail.”  John Wooden, famed former football coach.


Do we read enough or watch too much TV?

I’ve been intrigued by a  number of books and studies over the last few years about the habits of very successful people, and the wealthy.

They invariably show that, although the wealthy come from a variety of backgrounds and have various levels of education, they have common attitudes toward opportunities, life, work, entertainment, and retirement (they’re not interested in it), that are quite different from most other people.

Two glaring differences are in the use of free time.

Television: The average American watches TV five hours a day, or 35 hours a week, almost equal to a full workweek. Those over 70 watch an average of seven hours a day. (Surfing the internet is replacing some TV watching).

The wealthy watch TV an average of less than an hour a day, and rarely surf the Internet. Their favorite free-time activity is;

Reading: Only 26% of Americans ‘like to read’. The average American reads fewer than one book a month, and each year 25% have not read a single book in the previous year.

The studies show the wealthy try to read every day, tend to listen to audio books when travelling, and on average read more than two books per month, while 86% reported they ‘love to read’.

Then there are the confessions of Warren Buffett and his long-time partner Charlie Munger.

Quoting from an article by Shane Parrish, Farham Street:

“Most people go though life not really getting any smarter. Why? They simply won’t do the work required.

We can learn a lot from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

They didn’t get smart because they are both billionaires. No, in fact they became billionaires, in part, because they are smart. More importantly, they keep getting smarter. And it turns out that they have a lot to say on the subject.

Read – a lot.

Warren Buffett says, "I just sit in my office and read all day." He estimates he spends 80% of his working day reading and thinking about what he has read.

Charlie Munger says, "You could hardly find a partnership in which two people settle on reading more hours of the day than in ours. If we hadn’t been continuous learners, the record wouldn’t have been as good. And we were so extreme about it that we both spend the better part of our days reading, so we can learn still more.”

When asked how to get smarter, Buffett once held up stacks of papers and pointed to stacks of books, and said “Read 500 pages like this every day.”

"Neither Warren nor I are smart enough to make the decisions we do with no time to think," Munger once told a reporter. "We make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because we’ve spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly sitting and reading and thinking."

Food for thought?


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is a hotline and in-depth Market Signals Update (stocks, bonds, gold) from Wednesday evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: Last week we updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


U.S. market yesterday.

Another sharply negative day after only two rally days?  Volume about average at 0.7 billon shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 170 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.9%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.2%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.

Gold closed up $12 an ounce at $1,220 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.1%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 1.5%. China closed down 0.2%. Hong Kong closed up 0.4%. India closed up 0.7%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. South Korea closed up 1.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.

European markets closed down after only a two-day rally.

The Europe Dow closed down 1.6%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.1%. The German DAX closed down 1.9%. France’s CAC closed down 1.9%. Belgium closed down 1.1%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.6%. Greece closed up 2.4%.  Ireland closed down 0.3%. Italy closed down 3.3%. Netherlands closed down 1.8%. Norway closed up 0.3%. Portugal closed down 1.2%. Spain closed down 3.9%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.


Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (Jan. 9)
DJIA 17737 -0.5%
S&P 500 2044 -0..7%
NYSE 10711 -1.1%
NASDAQ 4704 -0.5%
NASD 100 4213 -0.4%
Russ 2000 1185 -1.1%
DJTransprts 8858 -2.6%
DJ Utilities 623 +0.3%
XOI Oils 1,302 - 3.5%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.9%
GoldStcks 76.17 +8.0%
Canada 14384 -2.5%
London 6501 -0.7%
Germany 9648 -1.2%
France 4179 -1.7%
Hong Kong 23919 + 0.3%
Japan 17197 -1.5%
Australia 5440 +0.5%
S. Korea 1924 -0.1%
India 27458 -1.5%
Indonesia 5216 - 0.5%
Brazil 48840 +0.7%
Mexico 42384 +0.6%
China 3442 +1.6%
LAST WEEK (Jan. 2)
DJIA 17832 -1.2%
S&P 500 2058 -1.4%
NYSE 10830 -1.4%
NASDAQ 4726 -1.7%
NASD 100 4230 -2.0%
Russ 2000 1198 -1.4%
DJTransprts 9098 -1.1%
DJ Utilities 621 -2.2%
XOI Oils 1,349 - 1.2%
Gold bull. 1,188 -0.7%
GoldStcks 70.51 +3.1%
Canada 14753 +1.0%
London 6547 -0.9%
Germany 9764 -1.6%
France 4252 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23857 + 2.2%
Japan 17450 -2.1%
Australia 5415 +0.9%
S. Korea 1926 -1.1%
India 27887 +2.4%
Indonesia 5242 + 1.5%
Brazil 48512 -3.2%
Mexico 42114 -2.1%
China 3389 +2.5%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Dec. 26)
DJIA 18053 +1.4%
S&P 500 2088 +0.9%
NYSE 10985 +0.9%
NASDAQ 4806 + 0.9%
NASD 100 4314 +0.8%
Russ 2000 1215 + 1.7%
DJTransprts 9199 +2.3%
DJ Utilities 635 +3.6%
XOI Oils 1,366 - 0.1%
Gold bull. 1,196 + 0.2%
GoldStcks 68.40 - 1.4%
Canada 14607 +1.0%
London 6609 +1.0%
Germany 9922 +1.4%
France 4295 +1.3%
Hong Kong 23349 + 1.0%
Japan 17818 +1.1%
Australia 5369 +1.1%
S. Korea 1948 +1.0%
India 27241 - 0.5%
Indonesia 5166 + 0.4%
Brazil 50144 +1.0%
Mexico 43002 +1.1%
China 3308 +1.6%


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a fairly quiet week for important economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book and several others. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is a hotline and in-depth Market Signals Update (stocks, bonds, gold) from Wednesday evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: Last week we updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Fedspeak to the rescue again.

Thursday, January 8, 9:30 a.m.

It’s truly amazing how the Fed can affect global markets so dramatically, not with actions but with just a few words in a statement, or even a remark from an individual Fed governor.

How often do we see it over the years?

It doesn’t always work when conditions simply overwhelm any ability of words to have an effect. That was demonstrated by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s assurances in 2006 that housing was not in a bubble, and later that its bursting would not affect the rest of the economy, and later still that the problems were not serious enough to cause a recession.

But when problems are not as obvious, the Fed’s ability to cool off enthusiasm or halt pullbacks with just a few words is remarkable.

We seem to be seeing another example.

With global markets plunging, U.S. indexes breaking below short-term 50-day moving averages, and fear rising, markets got a boost from the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting yesterday.

010815a

And stocks are up strongly in Europe this morning on increasing expectations that the ECB will act on its promise of providing more economic stimulus if necessary to halt the eurozone’s slide toward recession. The not so subtle warnings in the minutes of the Fed’s December FOMC meeting, released yesterday, that the ECB needs to act puts more pressure on ECB to act.

And global markets are getting another big boost today from last evening’s remarks by Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, a voting member of the FOMC.

He achieved world-wide attention in a speech last evening in which he said that with inflation expected to stay low until 2018, the Fed does not need to begin raising interest rates until 2016.

And markets in Europe, and pre-open indicators in the U.S. are surging higher.

It’s amazing how often the Fed can control markets without action, via simple jaw-boning to raise or lower investor expectations on whatever is the issue of the moment.

But, the remarks by Charles Evans don’t mean a lot. If markets stabilize and move higher, it would only take a remark by a different Fed governor about the need to raise rates to keep their schedule on track for rate hikes to begin in June.

We will just continue to follow our intermediate and longer-term indicators.


Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is be an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A nice triple-digit bounce-back day on fairly decent volume of almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE, with the indexes mostly closing near their highs of the day.

The Dow closed up 212 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.2%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.2%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.1%.

Gold closed down $7 an ounce to $1,212.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.4%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.2%.

European Markets gave up most of significant early gains to close mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.8%. The German DAX closed up 0.5%. France’s CAC closed up 0.7%. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Denmark closed down 0.5%. Finland closed down 0.7%. Greece closed down another 1.5%. Ireland closed down 0.1%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Netherlands closed up 0.7%. Norway closed up 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.7%. Spain closed up 0.2%. Switzerland closed up 0.3%.

Asian Markets closed up last night, following yesterday’s U.S. rally.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed down 2.4%. Hong Kong closed up 0.7%. India closed up 1.4%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 1.7%. Malaysia closed up 1.0%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 1.1%. Singapore closed up 1.4%. Taiwan closed up 1.7%. Thailand closed up 1.4%.


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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are surging up this morning on increasing hopes for ECB stimulus.

The Europe Dow is up 1.8%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 1.9%. The German DAX is up 1.8%. France’s CAC is up 2.4%. Belgium is up 2.0%. Denmark is up 1.3%. Finland is up 1.2%. Greece is down 1.2%. Ireland is up 1.4%. Italy is up 2.6%. Netherlands is up 2.0%. Norway is up 1.1%. Portugal is up 2.4%. Spain is up 2.3%. Switzerland is up 2.0%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.25 at $48.90 barrel.

Gold is up $2 an ounce at $1,212 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week has a number of important economic reports, including Auto Sales, Factory Orders, the U.S. Trade Deficit, the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for December, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were auto sales for December, which were positive. Among them; Chrysler +20%; General Motors +19.3%; Ford +1.3%; Nissan +6.9%; Honda +1.5%.

Tuesday’s reports were that Factory Orders fell 0.75 in November. And the ISM Non-Mfg (Services sector) Index, fell from 59.3 in November to 56.2 in December.

Yesterday’s reports provided good news. The U.S. Trade Deficit fell 7.7% in November, although mostly due to the impact the sharp drop in oil prices had on the value of imported oil. And the ADP Jobs Report showed that 241,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in December, while the previously reported jobs for November were revised up from208,000 to 227,000.

This morning’s report was that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 4,000 last week, to 294,000. The 4-week m.a. fell by 250 to 290,500. 


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 150 points or so in the early going.


Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: Last week we updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

More downside to go?

Tuesday, January 6, 9:25 a.m.

As expected, volatility has not gone away.

And it is of more concern this time since the catalyst for the decline of the last few days was not simply the short-term overbought condition, or excessive investor confidence and bullishness as with the previous pullback. In fact, this time, bullish investor sentiment, cooled off by the last pullback, was not excessive.

The catalyst for this pullback, the continuing dramatic plunge in oil prices and the return of potential political instability and other serious problems in the fragile euro-zone, are real problems.

010615c

Should we be more concerned this time that favorable seasonality and the improving U.S. economy may not be enough to keep the pullback under control?

We will just continue to follow our intermediate and longer-term indicators, but the situation sure does have us watching them closely.


Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: Last week we updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

An ugly day, down from the open and worsening all day on the further 5% drop in the price of oil, which closed under $50 a barrel. Volume picked up to just over 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow plunged 331 points, or 1.9%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 2.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.6%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 2.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.2%.

Gold closed up $19 an ounce to $1,205.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.6%.

European Markets plunged sharply yesterday.

The Europe Dow plunged 3.6%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 2.0%. The German DAX closed down 3.0%. France’s CAC closed down 3.3%. Belgium closed down 2.2%. Denmark closed down 0.5%. Finland closed down 1.8%. Greece plunged 5.6%.  Ireland closed down 1.2%. Italy plunged 4.9%. Netherlands closed down 2.7%. Norway closed down 2.4%. Portugal closed down 3.1%. Spain closed down 3.5%. Switzerland closed down 0.5%.

Asian Markets followed yesterday’s global sell-off last night.

The Asia Dow plunged 2.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 1.7%. China closed up 0.1%. Hong Kong closed down 1.0%. India closed down 3.1%. Indonesia closed down 1.0%. Japan closed down 3.0%. Malaysia closed down 1.2%. New Zealand closed down 0.7%. South Korea closed down 1.7%. Singapore closed down 1.4%. Taiwan closed down 2.4%. Thailand closed down 0.4%.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed.

The Europe Dow is up 0.1%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is up 1.0%. France’s CAC is up 0.3%. Belgium is up 0.3%. Denmark is down 0.6%. Finland is down 1.8%. Greece is plunging another 5.6%. Ireland is down 0.9%. Italy is up 0.9%. Netherlands is up 0.4%. Norway is up 0.4%. Portugal is down 0.6%. Spain is up 0.1%. Switzerland is up 0.3%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down another $1.13 at $48.91 a barrel.

Gold is up $5 an ounce at $1,210 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will see a number of important economic reports, including Auto Sales, Factory Orders, the U.S. Trade Deficit, the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for December, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were auto sales for December, which were positive. Among them; Chrysler +20%; General Motors +19.3%; Ford +1.3%; Nissan +6.9%; Honda +1.5%.

This morning’s reports will be Factory Orders, and the ISM non-Mfg (Services sector) Index, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.

It’s still all about the plunging price of oil and the political situations in Greece and the euro-zone.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 40 points or so in the early going.


Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: Last week we updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

2015: the Recovery Year for Energy and Commodities?

Saturday, January 3, 12 noon.

Last year was a dismal year for oil, the energy sector in general, commodities, and gold.

Following through with the theme of my weekend newspaper column of how investors tend to shop for the next year’s winners from the lists of the previous year’s hottest out-performers, while studies show they’d be much better off considering the previous year’s under-performers, leads us to the worst performers of last year.

Are they oversold? Are their bear markets over? Are they at least due for a bear market rally?

Oil.

So far, oil is showing no signs of bottoming. After attempting to hold at $55 a barrel in December, it has declined to a new low. 

010314a

But is it a sign of a bottom approaching that pundits have moved from reasons to expect $80 to hold, then $70, then $55, to reasons why it will go lower, $50, $40 gaining popularity?

No longer is it that OPEC countries will have to cut production to boost prices and protect their industries. The story now is that OPEC countries want to push oil prices lower, willing to live with the short-term pain in hopes of forcing high-cost oil producers out of business (deep-water drillers, U.S. oil frackers, etc.). 

If that is their goal, a secret alliance, is a 50% plunge not close to being enough to accomplish that goal? We don’t have a buy signal on it yet, but we are watching closely.

Energy sector.

While the S&P 500 gained double-digits last year, the energy sector declined 25% over the last six months, following oil down. Is that enough for at least a bear market rally even if there is to be another leg down?

There are some encouraging signs on the charts. the sector’s internal strength has reached its intermediate-term oversold zone, and did not confirm the sector’s last low (its internal strength made a higher low).

We would not buy at this point, with the majority of our momentum indicators like MACD and William’s 14%R still on sell signals.

But it is another area we are watching closely as we enter the new year.

010314b

Commodities:

It’s a similar situation with commodities. Certainly underperfomers in 2014, and out of favor.

010314c

But will the Fed finally gets its wish in 2015 for some degree of inflation to show up. It sure could happen if the economy continues to grow and the Fed leaves interest rates near zero a few more months.

The Fed’s target is 2% inflation, even a bit more. It got only 1.3% in 2014.

United States Inflation Rate

And then there is:

Gold.

Down 38% in its bear market from 2011, could it become a big winner in 2015?

010314d

If so, will the gold-mining stocks be a bigger winner than gold bullion?

The gold-mining stocks are down 70% in gold’s bear market. Just a 50% retracement of the bear market decline would be a 107% gain in the XAU Index of Mining Stocks.

We don’t have a buy signal yet, and a lot of investors have experienced serious losses trying to pick the bottom. But we are watching closely.

010315f

Not that beaten down areas are the only prospects, but these are a few of the interesting areas we are watching as a new year begins.

U.S. market. Short-term.

When the market became short-term overbought above 50-day moving averages in early December, and our short-term indicators triggered sell signals, we said it would be just a 4% to 5% pullback to alleviate the overbought condition and cool off the high level of bullish investor sentiment before the upside would resume.

The S&P 500 pulled back exactly 5%, and the upside resumed to new highs.

But the entire pullback and recovery, which might normally take place over a couple of months, took place in just 3 weeks. Short-term overbought again, it rolled over the last two days.

010315g 


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Seasonal Sweet Spot for Small Stocks-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


U.S. market yesterday.

A somewhat negative day with considerable intraday volatility. The Dow was up 125 points, then down 90 points, but up 9 points at the close. Volume about average at 0.6 billon shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 9 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.6%.

Gold closed up $3 an ounce at $1,187 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 1.0%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.1%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.2%.

Japan’s market was closed for holiday.

Among those that were open: Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed up 2.2%. India closed up 1.4%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan’s market was closed for holiday. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed up 0.6%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

European markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.9%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The German DAX closed down 0.4%. France’s CAC closed down 0.5%. Belgium closed down 0.1%. Denmark closed up 1.1%. Finland closed up 0.9%. Greece closed up 1.2%.  Ireland closed up 0.1%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.5%. Norway closed up 0.5%. Portugal closed up 1.2%. Spain closed up 0.7%. Switzerland closed down 0.6%.


Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (Jan. 2)
DJIA 17832 -1.2%
S&P 500 2058 -1.4%
NYSE 10830 -1.4%
NASDAQ 4726 -1.7%
NASD 100 4230 -2.0%
Russ 2000 1198 -1.4%
DJTransprts 9098 -1.1%
DJ Utilities 621 -2.2%
XOI Oils 1,349 - 1.2%
Gold bull. 1,188 -0.7%
GoldStcks 70.51 +3.1%
Canada 14753 +1.0%
London 6547 -0.9%
Germany 9764 -1.6%
France 4252 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23857 + 2.2%
Japan 17450 -2.1%
Australia 5415 +0.9%
S. Korea 1926 -1.1%
India 27887 +2.4%
Indonesia 5242 + 1.5%
Brazil 48512 -3.2%
Mexico 42114 -2.1%
China 3389 +2.5%
LAST WEEK (Dec. 26)
DJIA 18053 +1.4%
S&P 500 2088 +0.9%
NYSE 10985 +0.9%
NASDAQ 4806 + 0.9%
NASD 100 4314 +0.8%
Russ 2000 1215 + 1.7%
DJTransprts 9199 +2.3%
DJ Utilities 635 +3.6%
XOI Oils 1,366 - 0.1%
Gold bull. 1,196 + 0.2%
GoldStcks 68.40 - 1.4%
Canada 14607 +1.0%
London 6609 +1.0%
Germany 9922 +1.4%
France 4295 +1.3%
Hong Kong 23349 + 1.0%
Japan 17818 +1.1%
Australia 5369 +1.1%
S. Korea 1948 +1.0%
India 27241 - 0.5%
Indonesia 5166 + 0.4%
Brazil 50144 +1.0%
Mexico 43002 +1.1%
China 3308 +1.6%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Dec. 19)
DJIA 17804 +3.0%
S&P 500 2070 +3.4%
NYSE 10890 +3.7%
NASDAQ 4765 + 2.4%
NASD 100 4281 +2.0%
Russ 2000 1195 + 3.7%
DJTransprts 8989 +1.7%
DJ Utilities 613 + 2.7%
XOI Oils 1,367 +10.1%
Gold bull. 1,194 -2.2%
GoldStcks 69.36 +1.0%
Canada 14468 +5.4%
London 6545 +3.9%
Germany 9786 +2.0%
France 4241 +3.2%
Hong Kong 23116 -0.6%
Japan 17621 +1.4%
Australia 5312 +2.2%
S. Korea 1929 +0.4%
India 27371 +0.1%
Indonesia 5144 -0.3%
Brazil 49650 +3.4%
Mexico 42529 +2.0%
China 3256 +5.8%


Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will see a number of important economic reports, including Factory Orders, the U.S. Trade Deficit, the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for December, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Seasonal Sweet Spot for Small Stocks-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

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