Looks like time for another market pullback already.

Saturday, November 8, 9:15 am.

The ‘monthly strength period’, the last two trading days of each month, and the first four days of the following month, was due to end on Thursday, and seemed to.

And next week is the week before the month’s options expirations week, and the week before tends to be negative.

And the market has been up for 3 straight weeks. As a result, as noted on Thursday’s post, AAII investor sentiment spiked higher into its dangerous zone this week, with bulls above 50 at 52.7%, and bears under 20, at just 15.1%, virtually no one expecting anything but higher prices.

Then there is the short-term overbought condition above 50-day moving averages.

110814a

110814c

If I’m right will it be just another brief pullback, or the beginning of the real correction that didn’t materialize in October?

Has the jobs report lost its mojo?

For years I have referred to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report as ‘The Big One’. Or at least I have done so since the market topped out the first time in 2000.

As the economy slowed and for quite awhile after both the 2001 recession and the 2007-2009 recession, jobs disappeared each month, and each report was watched for signs of jobs bottoming. And as they recovered, they were watched just as closely, since the reports were volatile, sometimes gains, sometimes losses, then as recoveries continued; sometimes large job gains, sometimes small gains.

Because the reports are volatile, often subject to revisions, and impossible to predict, for 15 years they most often came in with a surprise in one direction or the other. And as a result of the exaggerated focus on the reports, egged on by CNBC, those surprises almost always resulted in a one-to three day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other. (Thus my description of the report as ‘the big one’).

There were always points within the reports for debate. Jobs were up but the participation rate was not, or jobs were disappointing but the unemployment rate fell (the government obviously falsified the numbers said Donald Trump and Jack Welch).

The other side of the pattern was that whichever was the direction of the initial knee-jerk reaction was almost always reversed over the subsequent few days, and the market forgot about it, going back to whatever was its focus before the report.

But reports the last few months, even if a surprise, did not have the same effect on the market. Perhaps a move in one direction for a couple of hours, and then a reversal, but that was about it.

Most of it is that the jobs recovery has settled into a steady pace, with only minor variations from expectations.

Yesterday’s report was that only 214,000 new jobs were created in October, missing the consensus forecast of 240,000, but the unemployment rate dipped down from 5.9% to 5.8%. As is being reported, the economy has now added 200,000 or more jobs for nine straight months, for the first time since 1995, 20 years ago.

The market had little reaction, the Dow showing little volatility through the day, and closing up 19 points, or 0.1%.

I guess it’s time to retire my description of the jobs report as ‘the big-one’. It’s become just another boring report indicating the economic recovery continues. 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Healthy Returns from the Healthcare Sector

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is a ‘Global Markets’ Update from yesterday, and an in-depth Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

U.S. market yesterday.

A quiet non-volatile day. The Dow was up as much as 20 points, down as much as 60, and then spiked up on buy programs in the final minutes to close fractionally positive going into the weekend, up 19 points. Volume was 0.75 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 19 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed virtually flat, up just 0.03%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.9%.

Gold surged up $34 an ounce to $1,176 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.6%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.2%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The DJ Asia- Pacific Index closed up 0.4%.

Australia closed up 0.8%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.4%. India closed down 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.9%. Japan surged up 0.5%. Malaysia closed down 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed down 0.2%.

European markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.8%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed down 0.9%. France’s CAC closed down 0.9%. Belgium closed down 0.6%. Denmark closed down 0.1%. Finland closed down 1.2%. Greece plunged 5.4%. Ireland closed down 1.5%. Italy closed down 1.0%. Netherlands closed down 0.4%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed down 0.7%. Spain closed down 1.3%. Switzerland closed down 0.5%.

Global markets for the week. 

Not sure how to describe the week. From the looks of the green it was a third straight positive week. But by such fractional margins in so many markets that it could have as easily been negative. In the U.S. it was dependent on the last half hour rally before markets closed yesterday. The divergence between the U.S. market and many global markets seemed to return this week. A somewhat positive week for some resource dominated markets like Canada and Australia, as mining stocks bounced off of bear market lows. 

THIS WEEK (Nov. 7)
DJIA 17573 +1.1%
S&P 500 2031 +0.6%
NYSE 10864 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4632 +0.1%
NASD 100 4160 +0.1%
Russ 2000 1173 unchg
DJTransprts 8949 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 603 +1.0%
XOI Oils 1,473 -0.8%
Gold bull. 1,176 +0.4%
GoldStcks 69.04 +6.4%
Canada 14690 +0.5%
London 6567 +0.3%
Germany 9291 -0.4%
France 4189 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,550 -1.9%
Japan 16880 +2.9%
Australia 5522 +0.3%
S. Korea 1939 -1.3%
India 27868 Unchd
Indonesia 4987 -2.0%
Brazil 53222 -2.6%
Mexico 44614 -0.9%
China 2532 -0.1%
LAST WEEK (Oct. 31)
DJIA 17390 +3.5%
S&P 500 2018 +2.8%
NYSE 10844 +2.5%
NASDAQ 4630 +3.3%
NASD 100 4158 +2.9%
Russ 2000 1173 +4.9%
DJTransprts 8755 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 597 +2.3%
XOI Oils 1,485 +2.1%
Gold bull. 1,171 -4.8%
GoldStcks 64.88 -14.5%
Canada 14613 +0.5%
London 6546 +2.5%
Germany 9326 +3.8%
France 4233 +2.5%
Hong Kong 23,998 +3.0%
Japan 16413 +7.3%
Australia 5505 +2.0%
S. Korea 1964 +2.0%
India 27865 +3.8%
Indonesia 5089 +0.3%
Brazil 54628 +5.2%
Mexico 45027 +3.1%
China 2534 +5.2%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Oct. 24)
DJIA 16805 +2.6%
S&P 500 1,964 +4.1%
NYSE 10582 +3.2%
NASDAQ 4483 +5.3%
NASD 100 4042 +6.0%
Russ 2000 1118 +3.3%
DJTransprts 8568 +5.2%
DJ Utilities 583 +3.8%
XOI Oils 1,454 +3.0%
Gold bull. 1,230 -0.6%
GoldStcks 75.93 -1.5%
Canada 14543 +2.2%
London 6388 +1.2%
Germany 8987 +1.5%
France 4128 +2.4%
Hong Kong 23,302 +1.2%
Japan 15291 +5.2%
Australia 5399 +2.6%
S. Korea 1925 +1.3%
India 26851 +2.9%
Indonesia 5073 +0.9%
Brazil 51940 -6.8%
Mexico 43666 +0.9%
China 2410 -1.7%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a quiet week for U.S. economic reports, but there will be some of importance, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Healthy Returns from the Healthcare Sector

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is a ‘Global Markets’ Update from yesterday, and an in-depth Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

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  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
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**** End of Today’s post*****

Will ECB Action Catch European Markets Up To U.S.?

Thursday, November 5, 9:25 a.m.

The European Commission cut its growth forecasts for European economies again this week. The EU says it now expects GDP in the 18-country euro-zone will be up only 0.8% this year, down from its previous forecast of 1.2%, and that growth in 2015 will be only 1.1%.

The economic reports from Europe continue to be dismal.

Under increasing pressure to do something about it, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said in a press conference a few minutes ago that the ECB is ready to expand its balance sheet by a trillion euros over the next two years with another program of QE type asset purchases.

It has European markets moving higher this morning.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed, satisfied that the U.S. economy can continue its recovery without Fed stimulus, has tapered back its massive $80.5 billion a month QE stimulus to near zero this year.

So until now we have had the U.S. central bank, U.S. businesses, and U.S. investors confident and bullish, while the European Central Bank, European business, and investor confidence has been worried and pessimistic.

It shows in the markets. U.S. markets recovered fully from their scary pullbacks and on to new record highs.

110614a

While European markets, even Europe’s largest economy, Germany, struggling with its bounce-back, still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

110614b

But will ECB action have the same positive effect on European markets that stimulus had on the U.S. market?

Speaking of U.S. investor confidence. 

The latest weekly poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), which was released last night.

The two straight weeks of very positive market action (after 4 straight down weeks) has investors even more confident and optimistic. The AAII bullish percentage jumped again, rising 3.3% to 52.7%, while the bearish percentage fell by 6, to well under 20, at just 15.1%.

Not sure that’s a positive for the short-term.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update, and an in-depth ‘Mid-Week Stock Markets Update’ from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A mostly positive day, at least for the blue chips, which closed at new record highs. The Dow closed up 100 points, or 0.6%. But the Nasdaq diverged significantly, closing down 0.1%. Volume was again fairly heavy at almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 100 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up only 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 2.0%.

Gold plunged another $20 an ounce to 1,146 an ounce. (The XAU gold stocks index plunged another 4.2%).

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.1%.

European Markets closed sharply higher yesterday.

The London FTSE closed up 1.1%. The German DAX closed up 1.6%. France’s CAC closed up 1.9%. Belgium closed up 1.5%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed up 1.4%. Greece closed up 1.6%.  Ireland closed up 1.6%. Italy closed up 2.6%. Netherlands closed up 1.7%. Norway closed up 1.3%. Portugal closed up 1.8%. Spain closed up 1.2%. Switzerland closed up 1.4%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.3%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.2%. China closed up 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.6%. Japan closed down 0.9%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed unchanged. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.8%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are off earlier lows, turning positive after ECB president Draghi’s press conference.

The Europe Dow is up 0.2%

The London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is 0.9%. France’s CAC is up 0.8%. Belgium is up 0.8%. Denmark is up 0.8%. Finland is up 0.4%. Greece is up 1.1%. Ireland is up 0.8%. Italy is up 1.2%. Netherlands is up 1.1%. Norway is up 0.2%. Portugal is up 1.8%. Spain is up 1.2%. Switzerland is up 0.3%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $0.26 a barrel, at $78.42

Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,144 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Auto Sales, Construction Spending, the ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, the Labor Dept Monthly Employment Report, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were the PMI Mfg Index, which declined from 57.9 in September to 55.9 in October. But the ISM Mfg Index jumped from 56.6 in September to 59 in October, on a big jump in new orders. Construction Spending fell 0.4% in September, considerably worse than the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.7%. And Auto sales for October came in mixed but positive. Chrysler continued its winning streak, reporting a 22% sales increase from a year ago. Ford reported its sales were down 2% , and General Motors reported a sales increase of only 1%. Nissan, Toyota, and Honda reported U.S. sales were up 13%, 6.9%, and 6% respectively.

Tuesday’s report were that the U.S. Trade Deficit surged up 7.6% in September to $3 billion, on a big drop in exports to important trading partners Europe, China, and Japan. And Factory Orders declined 0.6% in September, about in line with the consensus forecast.

Yesterday’s reports were the ADP jobs report, which showed that . The PMI Services Index, which . And the ISM non-mfg Index, which .

This morning’s reports were that weekly unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 278,000 last week. The four-week moving average dropped 2,250 to 279,000, a 14-year low. And Productivity was up 2.0% in the 3rd quarter, and 2nd quarter productivity was revised up significantly, from the previously reported 2.3% to 2.9%. 

The early morning indicators, which were somewhat negative prior to the reports have turned positive after the reports.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 30 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update, and an in-depth ‘Mid-Week Stock Markets Update’ from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

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This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Can declines in energy costs offset slowing global economies?

Tuesday, November 3, 9:25 a.m.

Evidence that the slowdown in global economies is beginning to affect the U.S. economy is showing up more clearly in economic reports.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that the U.S. trade deficit jumped 7.6% to $43 billion in September. The culprit was a big decline in exports to important U.S. trading partners Europe, China and Japan. Exports to China fell 3.2%, to Europe by 6.5%, and by 14.7% to Japan. It was the biggest drop in exports in seven months. (Imports were unchanged).

Adding to the problem, the European Commission cut its growth forecasts for the European Union again this morning. The EU says it now expects GDP in the 18-country euro-zone will be up only 0.8% this year, down from its previous forecast of 1.2%, and that growth in 2015 will be only 1.1%.

Meanwhile, the price of oil, gasoline, heating oil, continues to drop precipitously as supply increases while demand slows with the slowing global economies.

110414e

Will the drop in energy costs put enough extra disposable income in the pockets of consumers that domestic buying (65% of the economy) will offset declining exports enough to keep the U.S. economy on its growth track until global economies pick up?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth ‘Mid-Week Markets Update’ tomorrow afternoon in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day and mixed day. The Dow was up as much as 20 points and down as much as 50 points, and closed about in the middle, down 24 points or 0.14%. Volume was fairly heavy at almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE, participation  picking up.

The Dow closed down 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed unchanged. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.7%.

Gold closed down $3 an ounce at $1,169 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed unchanged.

European Markets closed down yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.9%. The German DAX closed down 0.8%. France’s CAC closed down 0.9%. Belgium closed down 1.0%. Denmark closed down 1.1%. Finland closed down 0.5%. Greece closed up 2.6%.  Ireland closed up 1.3%. Italy closed down 2.1%. Netherlands closed down 0.6%. Norway closed down 0.1%. Portugal closed down 0.2%. Spain closed down 1.0%. Switzerland closed down 1.0%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.2%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.3%. India closed unchanged. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed up 2.7%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed down 0.9%. Singapore closed down 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.4%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.1%

The London FTSE is down 0.2%. The German DAX is down 0.1%. France’s CAC is down 0.6%. Belgium is up 0.3%. Denmark is up 0.1%. Finland is down 0.3%. Greece is up 1.9%. Ireland is up 0.1%. Italy is down 0.9%. Netherlands is down 0.4%. Norway is down 1.1%. Portugal is down 1.2%. Spain is down 0.9%. Switzerland is up 0.3%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $2.15 a barrel, at $76.61

Gold is down $1 an ounce at $1,168 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Auto Sales, Construction Spending, the ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, the Labor Dept Monthly Employment Report, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were the PMI Mfg Index, which declined from 57.9 in September to 55.9 in October. But the ISM Mfg Index jumped from 56.6 in September to 59 in October, on a big jump in new orders. Construction Spending fell 0.4% in September, considerably worse than the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.7%. And Auto sales for October came in mixed but positive. Chrysler continued its winning streak, reporting a 22% sales increase from a year ago. Ford reported its sales were down 2% , and General Motors reported a sales increase of only 1%. Nissan, Toyota, and Honda reported U.S. sales were up 13%, 6.9%, and 6% respectively.

This morning’s report so far is that the U.S. Trade Deficit surged up 7.6% in September to $3 billion, on a big drop in exports to important trading partners Europe, China, and Japan.

Still to come are Factory Orders, which will be released at 10 a.m.

The disappointing trade deficit report had no effect on the early morning indicators, which were already somewhat negative.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 40 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth ‘Mid-Week Markets Update’ tomorrow afternoon in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Global Markets No Longer a Drag on U.S. Market?

Saturday, November 1, 12 noon.

One of the big concerns during the summer and fall months was that tumbling global markets were likely to drag the U.S. market down with them.

That worry received considerable relief in the big back-to-back market gains of the last two weeks. The big weeks were across the board globally.

Not many global markets broke out to new highs like the Dow and S&P 500, but they did rally significantly off their lows.

110114b

 

110114i

Gold.

Gold plunged to new bear market lows this week. Gold bullion closed at a 4-year low yesterday.

But the gold mining stocks, already at new bear market lows, plunged another 14% this week, and are at a 12-year low, having given back almost all of their gains made in gold’s huge bull market that began in 2000.

110114a

Needless to say we remain on the sell signal for gold. 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:    Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

U.S. market yesterday.

Another triple-digit move. The Dow closed up 195 points or 1.1%. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs. Volume surged to 1.0 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 195 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.2%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.2. The Nasdaq closed up 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.4%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.1%.

Gold plunged $26 an ounce to $1,171 an ounce, a four-year low. Gold stocks plunged another 4.6%.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.8%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.3%.

Asian markets closed up sharply in their last session of the week.

The DJ Asia- Pacific Index closed up 0.9%.

Australia closed up 0.9%. China closed up 1.2%. Hong Kong closed up 1.3%. India closed up 1.9%. Indonesia closed up 0.6%. Japan surged up 4.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.8%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 1.2%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 1.0%. Thailand closed up 1.2%.

European markets also closed sharply higher yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.3%.

The London FTSE closed up 1.3%. The German DAX closed up 2.3%. France’s CAC closed up 2.2%. Belgium closed up 1.2%. Denmark closed up 0.4%. Finland closed up 1.4%. Greece closed up 1.0%. Ireland closed up 2.1%. Italy closed up 3.1%. Netherlands closed up1.9%. Norway closed up 0.5%. Portugal closed up 2.0%. Spain closed up 2.1%. Switzerland closed up 1.4%.

Global markets for the week. 

Another huge week globally. New record highs for Dow and S&P 500. Horrible week for gold, closing at a four-year low, even worse for gold mining stocks. Canada’s market, dominated by resource stocks lagged behind the global rally on the further plunge in gold stocks and oil. 

THIS WEEK (Oct. 31)
DJIA 17390 +3.5%
S&P 500 2018 +2.8%
NYSE 10844 +2.5%
NASDAQ 4630 +3.3%
NASD 100 4158 +2.9%
Russ 2000 1173 +4.9%
DJTransprts 8755 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 597 +2.3%
XOI Oils 1,485 +2.1%
Gold bull. 1,171 -4.8%
GoldStcks 64.88 -14.5%
Canada 14613 +0.5%
London 6546 +2.5%
Germany 9326 +3.8%
France 4233 +2.5%
Hong Kong 23,998 +3.0%
Japan 16413 +7.3%
Australia 5505 +2.0%
S. Korea 1964 +2.0%
India 27865 +3.8%
Indonesia 5089 +0.3%
Brazil 54628 -+5.2%
Mexico 45027 +3.1%
China 2534 +5.2%
LAST WEEK (Oct. 24)
DJIA 16805 +2.6%
S&P 500 1,964 +4.1%
NYSE 10582 +3.2%
NASDAQ 4483 +5.3%
NASD 100 4042 +6.0%
Russ 2000 1118 +3.3%
DJTransprts 8568 +5.2%
DJ Utilities 583 +3.8%
XOI Oils 1,454 +3.0%
Gold bull. 1,230 -0.6%
GoldStcks 75.93 -1.5%
Canada 14543 +2.2%
London 6388 +1.2%
Germany 8987 +1.5%
France 4128 +2.4%
Hong Kong 23,302 +1.2%
Japan 15291 +5.2%
Australia 5399 +2.6%
S. Korea 1925 +1.3%
India 26851 +2.9%
Indonesia 5073 +0.9%
Brazil 51940 -6.8%
Mexico 43666 +0.9%
China 2410 -1.7%
PREVIOUIS WEEK (Oct. 17)
DJIA 16380 -1.0%
S&P 500 1,886 -1.1%
NYSE 10250 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4258 -0.4%
NASD 100 3815 -1.4%
Russ 2000 1082 +2.8%
DJTransprts 8147 +3.2%
DJ Utilities 553 +0.2%
XOI Oils 1,412 -1.8%
Gold bull. 1,237 +1.1%
GoldStcks 77.08 -0.2%
Canada 14227 unchgd
London 6310 -0.5%
Germany 8850 +0.7%
France 4033 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,023 -0.3%
Japan 14532 -5.0%
Australia 5260 +1.5%
S. Korea 1900 -2.1%
India 26108 -0.7%
Indonesia 5028 +1.3%
Brazil 55723 +0.7%
Mexico 43273 -0.4%
China 2451 -1.4%

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In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Auto Sales, Construction Spending, the ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, the Labor Dept Monthly Employment Report, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:    Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Have Global Markets Bottomed?

Thursday, October 30, 9:25 a.m.

A number of global markets outside of the U.S. have been in serious declines. But have they bottomed? Or just rallied back from oversold conditions beneath their 50-day m.a. back up to potential resistance at the moving averages?

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103014b

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To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day until the FOMC statement was released, and then considerable volatility. The Dow was up as much as 60 points in the early going, and then down as much as 110 points after the statement, but recovered to close down 31 points, or 0.2%. Volume was 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 31 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.4%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.

Gold closed down $17 an ounce at $1,211 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.8%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.2%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.8%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed down 0.1%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 0.9%. Finland closed unchanged. Greece plunged 2.7%.  Ireland closed down 0.6%. Italy closed down 1.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 1.2%. Portugal closed down 0.8%. Spain closed down 1.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.3%.

Asian Markets mostly closed higher last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed down 0.5%. India closed up 0.9%. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed up 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are well off earlier lows but still down this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 1.7%

The London FTSE is down 0.5%. The German DAX is down 0.8%. France’s CAC is down 0.3%. Belgium is down 0.9%. Denmark is up 1.1%. Finland is down 0.4%. Greece is plunging 3.4%. Ireland is down 0.5%. Italy is down 1.4%. Netherlands is down 0.7%. Norway is down 1.6%. Portugal is down 2.7%. Spain is down 1.5%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.80 a barrel, at $81.41

Gold is down $5 an ounce at $1,206 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, the first report on 3rd quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were the PMI Services Sector Index, which slowed to its lowest level in 6 months, falling from 58.9 in September to 57.3 in October. The Pending Home Sales Index ticked up 0.3% from 104.7 in August to 105 in September. And the Dallas Fed Mfg Index ticked down from 10.8 in September to 10.5 in October.

Tuesday’s reports were that Durable Goods Orders fell 1.3% in September versus the consensus forecast of a rise of 0.2%. It was the 2nd straight monthly decline. But the Case-Shiller Home Prices Report showed U.S. home prices were up another 0.2% in August. And Consumer Confidence jumped from 89 in September to 95.5, much better than the consensus forecast of a decline to 87.3.

The only ‘report’ yesterday was the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, which indicated the Fed is more positive on the economy, but still able to keep rates low ‘for a considerable time’ due to the continuing low inflation.

This morning’s reports are that 3rd quarter GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized pace, somewhat better than the consensus forecast of 3.0%. And new weekly unemployment claims were up by a meaningless 3,000 last week to 287,000. The four-month m.a. ticked up by 250 to 281,000. 

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier lows after the GDP report, and are mixed.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so in the early going, but S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq are still pointing down some.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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