Will Market’s Seasonality Return to Importance in 2015?

Saturday, March 14, 12:15 noon.

The market has a very long history of making most of its gains in the favorable winter season between October and May, while if there is to be a substantial correction it most often takes place in the unfavorable season of May to October.

The pattern is so consistent that academic studies (and actual portfolios) show that a strategy of investing only for the favorable season and standing aside in cash for the unfavorable season, outperforms the market over the long-term while taking roughly only 50% of market risk.

Like any strategy, particularly including buy and hold, it does not work out every year within the long-term. Sometimes the decline in the unfavorable season is only minor, and sometimes the market makes further gains in the unfavorable season.

But over the long-term it does work out quite dramatically, doubling the market’s long-term performance by avoiding serious corrections, and most of the down-legs in bear markets.

In addition, when it doesn’t work out for several straight years, it almost always comes back quite dramatically, making up for its absence. (Otherwise, it would not have its history of so dramatically outperforming the market over the long term).

Since this market has gone for an unusual length of time, since 2011, without even a normal 10% correction, seasonality has lost its importance the last several years, pretty much ridiculed by short-sighted analysis.

That is understandable, since in each of the last three years, the market has had only minor summer pullbacks and standing aside for them was non-productive.

031415j

However, can we depend on 2015 being as benign?

We are in a situation where the economy is slowing after the Fed has allowed a QE stimulus program to expire.

The last time that happened was in 2011.

Here is a reminder of what happened in 2011 when the economy was showing signs of slowing. The S&P 500 plunged 21% from May to October, even though at that time investors were also confident the Fed had its back via the ‘Bernanke Put’, and would not allow the market to decline.

However, the Fed did allow it, and did not come to the rescue with another round of QE until the S&P 500 was down 21%, on the edge of entering a bear market.

031415b

It’s interesting that in 2011 the market was also down in February and March.

That time, it recovered in April to a new high on May 1 before collapsing.

Is that the best we can hope for this time, with the economy slowing again and the Fed not talking about stimulus, but after ending its last QE program last fall, now talking about perhaps taking another step away from stimulus by beginning to raise interest rates?

Something to think about. 

Meanwhile, we will just continue to follow our indicators and their signals.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Sorry, But This Is Not 1997 For the Market

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers’ area of today’s blog, there is an in-depth markets update (stock market, gold, bonds) from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

Volatility is back. The Dow was down as much as 265 points and swung back 120 points to close down ‘only’ 145 points, or 0.8%. The rest of the market was not quite as negative as the blue chips. Volume was almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 145 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg down 0.9%.

Gold closed up $6 an ounce,  or 0.6%, at $1,158 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 1.0%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.3%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed up 0.7%. Hong Kong closed up 0.1%. India closed down 1.5%. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.9%. Malaysia closed down 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed down 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.8%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed down 0.2%.

European markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.9%. France’s CAC closed up 0.5%. Belgium closed up 0.3%. Denmark closed up 1.5%. Finland closed down 0.1%. Greece plunged 3.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.4%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%. Norway closed down 0.1%. Portugal closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.2%. Switzerland closed up 0.4%.


Global markets for the week. 

Another down week in the U.S. except for our holding in the Russell 2000. Mixed with big moves in both directions elsewhere.

THIS WEEK (March 13)
DJIA 17749 -0.6%
S&P 500 2053 -0.9%
NYSE 10750 -0.8%
NASDAQ 4871 -1.1%
NASD 100 4314 -1.9%
Russ 2000 1232 +1.2%
DJTransprts 8945 +0.4%
DJ Utilities 573 +0.5%
XOI Oils 1,273 -3.1%
Gold bull. 1,155 -0.9%
GoldStcks 65.58 -3.0%
Canada 14731 -1.5%
London 6740 -2.5%
Germany 11901 +3.0%
France 5010 +0.9%
Hong Kong 23,823 -1.4%
Japan 19254 +1.5%
Australia 5788 -1.4%
S. Korea 1985 -1.3%
India 28503 -3.2%
Indonesia 5426 -1.6%
Brazil 48579 -2.8%
Mexico 44002 +1.7%
China 3534 +4.1%
LAST WEEK (March 6)
DJIA 17856 -1.5%
S&P 500 2071 -1.6%
NYSE 10841 -2.0%
NASDAQ 4927 -0.7%
NASD 100 4399 -0.9%
Russ 2000 1217 -1.3%
DJTransprts 8907 -1.3%
DJ Utilities 570 -4.1%
XOI Oils 1,314 -4.5%
Gold bull. 1,165 -3.9%
GoldStcks 67.60 -12.1%
Canada 14952 -1.9%
London 6911 -0.5%
Germany 11550 +1.3%
France 4964 +0.3%
Hong Kong 24,164 -2.7%
Japan 18971 +0.9%
Australia 5868 -0.5%
S. Korea 2012 +1.4%
India 29448 +0.8%
Indonesia 5514 +1.2%
Brazil 49981 -3.1%
Mexico 43280 -2.1%
China 3396 -2.1%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Feb. 27)
DJIA 18132 -0.1%
S&P 500 2104 -0.3%
NYSE 11062 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4963 +0.2%
NASD 100 4440 -0.1%
Russ 2000 1233 +0.2%
DJTransprts 9024 -1.2%
DJ Utilities 594 -1.0%
XOI Oils 1,376 -0.9%
Gold bull. 1,212 +0.8%
GoldStcks 76.94 +3.6%
Canada 15234 +0.4%
London 6946 +0.5%
Germany 11401 +3.2%
France 4951 +2.5%
Hong Kong 24,823 -0.1%
Japan 18797 +2.5%
Australia 5898 +0.9%
S. Korea 1985 +1.2%
India 29220 -0.1%
Indonesia 5450 +0.9%
Brazil 51583 +0.7%
Mexico 44190 +1.5%
China 3468 +1.9%


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a relatively light week for potential market-moving economic reports, but they will include Industrial Production, New Housing Starts, the FOMC meeting statement, Janet Yellen’s FOMC press conference, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Sorry, But This Is Not 1997 For the Market

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers’ area of today’s blog, there is an in-depth markets update (stock market, gold, bonds) from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


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**** End of Today’s post*****

Slowing Economy Should Prevent Fed from Raising Rates!

Thursday, March 11, 9:25 a.m.

The consensus forecast is that it’s a sure thing the Fed will remove the phrase that it will be ‘patient’ about raising interest rates from its FOMC meeting statement next week. That would clear the way for it to begin rate hikes at its June meeting, since Fed Chair Yellen said in her press conference last month that removal of the phrase would indicate rate hikes could begin two meetings later.

The stock market has been pulling back for two weeks on that expectation of rising interest rates. It plunged further and sharply after Friday’s strong jobs report.

However, don’t be surprised if the Fed leaves the ‘patient’ phrase in its statement, and that even if it does remove it, they will replace it with some other form of assurance that rate hikes are still not in the cards anytime soon.

The Fed has said all along it would not begin raising rates until it was sure the economic recovery had improved enough to handle it.

Evidence is that the economy is going the other way, slowing since QE stimulus ended last fall. The indications are in the downward revision of 4th quarter GDP, and negative reports so far for the 1st quarter of this year, in factory orders and manufacturing indexes, consumer spending, consumer confidence, auto sales, the housing industry, etc.

This morning’s report was more of the same. Consumer spending is roughly 70% of the economy, and retail sales fell 0.6% in February. That was once again worse than forecasts and the third straight month of declines. Retail sales minus gasoline sales were down even more, 0.8%. The report also shows that auto sales are declining, since retail sales ex-autos were only down 0.1%.

The news is particularly disappointing since the plunge in gasoline and other energy costs has been putting extra spending money in the pockets of consumers. But in spite of that extra money and the recent reports that consumer incomes are rising, consumer spending has been declining as they choose to pay off debt and save more. That is being verified by the retail sales reports of recent months.

The slowing economy and lack of inflation do not support the Fed raising rates anytime soon. 


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your premium content area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) from late yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day, with the Dow down only 35 points at its intraday low, and up 70 points at its high, closing down 27 points, or less than 0.2%. The rest of the market was mixed, but with positive market breadth, more stocks up than down on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Volume was average at 0.76 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 27 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%. The NYSE Composite closed unchanged. The Nasdaq closed down 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.6%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.

Gold closed down $7 an ounce at $1,154 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP spiked up another 1.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.7%.


European Markets closed up strongly yesterday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.5%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 2.7%. France’s CAC closed up 2.4%. Belgium closed up 1.4%. Denmark closed up 0.5%. Finland closed up 1.4%. Greece closed down 2.5%.  Ireland closed up 1.4%. Italy closed up 2.2%. Netherlands closed up 1.8%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed up 2.2%. Spain closed up 1.1%. Switzerland closed up 0.9%.

Asian Markets closed up strongly last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed up 1.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.9%. China closed up 1.8%. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 1.0%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan closed up 1.4%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. South Korea closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.8%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.7%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.9%. The German DAX is down 0.3%. France’s CAC is down 0.1%. Belgium is up 0.1%. Denmark is up 0.1%. Finland is down 0.1%. Greece is down 0.7%. Ireland is up 1.4%. Italy is up 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.4%. Norway is up 1.4%. Portugal is down 0.1%. Spain is down 0.1%. Switzerland is up 0.1%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up 0.2% at $48.58 a barrel. 2

Gold is up $5 an ounce at $1,159 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment.  To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s reports were that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index ticked up 0.1 to 98 in February. The Labor Department’s JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed 4.99 million job openings in January little changed from December, and the quits and layoff rate was unchanged at 1.2%.

Yesterday’s report was that the EIA Oil Supplies report showed that crude oil inventories jumped again in the March 6 week to 448.9 billion, another 80-year record.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims declined a big 36,000 last week to 289,000. The 4-week m.a. fell by 3,750 to 302,250. And Retail Sales were down 0.6% in February, worse than expected and the third straight monthly decline.

The pre-open indicators have been positive and became more so on the Retail Sales report, as its lowers the potential for the Fed to raise interest rates.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 90 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your premium content area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) from late yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


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SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
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Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Market Pullback Still Underway.

Tuesday, March 10, 9:25 a.m.

Short-term support levels held in Friday’s sharp plunge, and the market bounced off those supports yesterday.

But our short-term technical indicators remained on the short-term sell signals that were calling for at least another pullback.

And it’s looking this morning like that pullback is still underway.

031015a

031015b 


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your premium content area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

The market bounced some from Friday’s negative reaction to the jobs report. The blue chips of the Dow bounced back more than the rest of the market. Volume was fairly light at 0.65 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 136 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.2%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.2%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,167 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.9%.


European Markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed down 0.6%. Belgium closed down 0.5%. Denmark closed down 0.1%. Finland closed up 0.1%. Greece plunged 4.2%.  Ireland closed down 0.8%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.3%. Norway closed down 0.8%. Portugal closed up 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.3%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.9%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.5%. Hong Kong closed down 0.9%. India closed down 0.5%. Indonesia closed up 0.3%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.4%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed down 1.8%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down sharply this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 1.8%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 1.4%. The German DAX is down 1.2%. France’s CAC is down 1.1%. Belgium is down 1.0%. Denmark is unchanged. Finland is down 0.6%. Greece is up 0.4%. Ireland is down 0.5%. Italy is down 1.0%. Netherlands is down 0.9%. Norway is down 1.5%. Portugal is down 2.4%. Spain is down 1.3%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down 0.5% at $49.73 a barrel.

Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,165 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment.  To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only report so far is that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index ticked up 0.1 to 98 in February. Still to come is the Labor Department’s JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which will be released at 10 a.m.

The pre-open indicators have been very negative all morning and remain so.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 175 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your premium content area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Wake-up call or beginning of something worse?

Saturday, March 7, 10:15 a.m.

There were no safe havens anywhere yesterday, except maybe cash. Gold and bonds closed down even more sharply than the stock market.

While the S&P 500 closed down 1.4%, gold closed down 2.6%, bonds closed down 2.2%, and supposedly defensive utilities closed down 3.1%.

Wall Street likes to tout utilities as defensive stocks due their high dividends. Haven’t heard that claim much lately, probably because with yesterday’s further plunge the DJ Utilities Avg is down 13.2% in just 6 weeks.

030715b

Bonds haven’t done much better, the 20-yr bond etf TLT is down 11% in 6 weeks.

030715c

On the stock market:

In last Saturday’s blog I noted that after three straight weeks of gains it looked like the market was overbought and about to pull back and keep the pattern of short-term volatility and 5% pullbacks going.

Other clues for the short-term included that among our technical indicators Internal Strength was not confirming the market’s new highs (Internal Strength was making lower highs), often an early warning for the short-term

The expected pullback did seem to be taking place this week.

030715l

At this point not even short-term support levels have been broken. But was yesterday the end of the market’s upside breakout already?

All due to yesterday’s job report showing 295,000 new jobs created in February moving markets to expect the Fed will very soon begin raising interest rates, probably in June.

Prior to the report, the market was liking the negative economic and inflation reports, on the expectation that with the economy slowing and inflation nowhere in sight, the Fed would not raise interest rates any time soon, and perhaps not even in 2015.

Those thoughts were supported by the comments like those of Jack Welch and Warren Buffett just two weeks ago, that the Fed “would be crazy to raise rates under current conditions.”

Did one jobs report change all that?

Anything can happen once markets become over-valued, and yesterday’s panic was at least a wake-up call to that fact.

Meanwhile, we will just continue to follow our intermediate-term and long-term indicators.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:    Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

An ugly day as volatility returned on increased volume of just under 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 278 points, or 1.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.4%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.6%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.2%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg plunged 3.1%.

Gold closed down $31 an ounce,  or 2.6%, at $1,165 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 1.2%.

Bonds (TLT) plunged 2.2%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed down 0.2%. Hong Kong closed down 0.1%. But India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 1.2%. Japan closed up 1.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.8%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. South Korea closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed up 0.5%. Thailand closed up 1.0%.

European markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow plunged 1.7%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 0.4%. France’s CAC closed unchanged. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Denmark closed up 0.4%. Finland closed up 0.4%. Greece closed down 0.9%.  Ireland closed up 1.1%. Italy closed up 0.2%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%. Norway closed 0.4%. Portugal closed up 0.9%. Spain closed down 0.3%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.


Global markets for the week. 

So much for new market highs in the U.S., the Dow headed for 20,000, the Nasdaq above 5,000, at least for now.

THIS WEEK (March 6)
DJIA 17856 -1.5%
S&P 500 2071 -1.6%
NYSE 10841 -2.0%
NASDAQ 4927 -0.7%
NASD 100 4399 -0.9%
Russ 2000 1217 -1.3%
DJTransprts 8907 -1.3%
DJ Utilities 570 -4.1%
XOI Oils 1,314 -4.5%
Gold bull. 1,165 -3.9%
GoldStcks 67.60 -12.1%
Canada 14952 -1.9%
London 6911 -0.5%
Germany 11550 +1.3%
France 4964 +0.3%
Hong Kong 24,164 -2.7%
Japan 18971 +0.9%
Australia 5868 -0.5%
S. Korea 2012 +1.4%
India 29448 +0.8%
Indonesia 5514 +1.2%
Brazil 49981 -3.1%
Mexico 43280 -2.1%
China 3396 -2.1%
LAST WEEK (Feb. 27)
DJIA 18132 -0.1%
S&P 500 2104 -0.3%
NYSE 11062 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4963 +0.2%
NASD 100 4440 -0.1%
Russ 2000 1233 +0.2%
DJTransprts 9024 -1.2%
DJ Utilities 594 -1.0%
XOI Oils 1,376 -0.9%
Gold bull. 1,212 +0.8%
GoldStcks 76.94 +3.6%
Canada 15234 +0.4%
London 6946 +0.5%
Germany 11401 +3.2%
France 4951 +2.5%
Hong Kong 24,823 -0.1%
Japan 18797 +2.5%
Australia 5898 +0.9%
S. Korea 1985 +1.2%
India 29220 -0.1%
Indonesia 5450 +0.9%
Brazil 51583 +0.7%
Mexico 44190 +1.5%
China 3468 +1.9%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Feb. 20)
DJIA 18140 +0.7%
S&P 500 2110 +0.7%
NYSE 11108 +0.6%
NASDAQ 4955 +1.3%
NASD 100 4443 +1.4%
Russ 2000 1231 +0.7%
DJTransprts 9131 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 600 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,388 -1.9%
Gold bull. 1,202 -2.2%
GoldStcks 74.28 -3.7%
Canada 15172 -0.6%
London 6915 +0.6%
Germany 11050 +0.8%
France 4830 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,832 +0.6%
Japan 18332 +2.3%
Australia 5845 +0.2%
S. Korea 1961 +0.2%
India 29231 +0.5%
Indonesia 5400 +0.5%
Brazil 51237 +1.2%
Mexico 43551 +1.1%
China 3402 +1.4%


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In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Consumer SentimentTo see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:    Remain Bullish – But Watchful!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


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Oil prices stubbornly resilient around $50 a barrel.

Thursday, March 5, 9:25 a.m.

The majority opinion seems to be that oil prices will drop further, popular targets being $30 and $40, with some outliers as low as $10 a barrel.

I don’t know if it’s just a case of as Warren Buffett says, the tendency to look in the rear view mirror and extend what is seen there in a straight line into the future, rather than looking through the windshield.

Looking in the rear view mirror all we see is a shocking plunge in the price of oil.

030515d

And it certainly seems reasonable to extend a continuation of that trend into the future, given the way that oil supplies continue to pile up, now at the point where the reports have become that finding additional places to store the oil has become a problem, while global economic reports continue to show slowing economies and slowing demand for oil.

Yet, oil seems to be stubbornly resilient around $50 a barrel?

A situation to keep an eye on (and we are).


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Investors Are Mistakenly Assured By Two Shaky Generalities

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A negative day, but the close was well off the earlier low. The Dow closed down 106 points, or 0.6%. But the rest of the market was not as negative, and volume was fairly light at 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 106 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.

Gold closed up $1 an ounce at $1,201 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.1%.


European Markets closed mostly up yesterday.

The London FTSE closed up 0.4%. The German DAX closed up 1.0%. France’s CAC closed up 1.0%. Belgium closed up 1.0%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece closed down 1.4%.  Ireland closed up 1.0%. Italy closed up 0.7%. Netherlands closed up 0.7%. Norway closed down 1.0%. Portugal closed down 1.5%. Spain closed up 0.3%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.

Asian Markets mostly closed down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.9%. Hong Kong closed down 1.1%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.8%. New Zealand closed down 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.6%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed down 0.6%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.5%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.4%. The German DAX is up 0.7%. France’s CAC is up 0.9%. Belgium is up 0.4%. Denmark is up 0.6%. Finland is up 0.8%. Greece is down 0.4%. Ireland is up 0.1%. Italy is up 0.9%. Netherlands is up 0.9%. Norway is up 1.1%. Portugal is up 1.3%. Spain is up 0.6%. Switzerland is up 0.3%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up 0.5% at $51.76 a barrel.

Gold is up $2 an ounce at $1,203 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is another full week for potential market-moving economic reports, including the the ISM Mfg Index, auto sales, the ADP Monthly Jobs Report, Factory Orders, the U.S. Trade Deficit, the Labor Department’s Monthly Employment Report for February, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were that Consumer Incomes were up 0.3% in January, but Consumer Spending declined 0.1% for the second straight month. The Fed’s favorite inflation measurement, the PCE Index, declined 0.5% in January, and the core rate, excluding food and energy, was up only 0.1%. The ISM Mfg Index ticked down from 53.5 in January to 52.9 in February. And Construction Spending declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in January, missing the consensus forecast of an increase of 0.3%.

Tuesday’s reports were auto sales. Overall sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.2 million, missing the consensus for 16.9 million. .

Wednesday’s reports were the ADP Employment Report, which showed 212,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in February. The ISM non-mfg Index ticked up from 56.7 in January to 56.9 in February. The EIA Oil Supplies Report showed crude stockpiles rose again last week, up 10.3 million barrels, much higher than the consensus forecast for a 4.6 million barrel increase.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims jumped to 320,000 last week, the highest level since last May. The four-week moving average rose by 10,250 to 304,750. And fourth quarter Productivity was revised from the originally reported decline of 1.8% to a decline of 2.2%. Still to come are Factory Orders, which will be released at 10 am.

The reports have had little effect on the pre-open indicators.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 40 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Investors Are Mistakenly Assured By Two Shaky Generalities

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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