Will Global Market Collapses Pull U.S. Down?

Tuesday, October 21, 9:25 a.m.

The S&P 500 broke fractionally below its 50-day m.a. and rallied back, but found the 50-day m.a. to be overhead resistance this time, and plunged back down. It produced a bit of a scare when it then broke beneath its long-term 200-day m.a.

However its pullback was less than 10%, and it has now been up for two days. That has investors and the financial media optimistic that that’s all there will be of the downside.

102114a

But holy cow. The collapses in markets around the world are not just minor pullbacks. Something is certainly going on globally that the U.S. market is still pretty much ignoring.

Markets in Europe topped out several months before the U.S. market, and followed the same pattern as the U.S. market. They had been making new record highs along with the U.S. market, then broke beneath their 50-day m.a. No big deal.

But then, like the U.S. market they attempted to rally and this time, also like the U.S., found the 50-day m.a. to be overhead resistance, and also like the U.S. market, they pulled back further and broke below the long-term support at the 200 day m.a.

But they are several months ahead of the U.S. market, and their first rally attempt after breaking beneath the 200-day m.a. failed at that m.a., and their plunges have worsened in another leg down.

102114b

It’s not just Europe that the long-term 200-day m.a. is looking like overhead resistance. We can see the same thing is the Latin American Index (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, etc).

102114c

102114d

Is this something that should concern U.S. markets as they rally back to their 200-day m.a.’s, or can the U.S. economy and markets go it alone in a renewed bull market?

102114e

Other Voices. 

Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners: “By my calculation Carl Icahn’s portfolio has lost 15% to 20%, more than $6 billion, from recent market highs. My intention is not to be critical of Icahn, but to deliver the lesson and message that if one of the world’s most successful investors is having a tough time of it, all investors should pay heed to a market that could, and has, lost its innocence. . . . . . Everybody seems to be looking up when they should be looking down.”

Speaking of billionaire losses, given his holdings in IBM Warren Buffett reportedly lost more than $1 billion yesterday on IBM’s 7% plunge.

Can Wall Street have it both ways on seasonality? 

As happens every year, in the spring when some in the financial media bring up the remarkable history of Sell in May (and buy back in November), Wall Street and its cheerleaders are all over the place slamming it. Pay no attention, seasonality is just a myth.

However, now that fall is here, those same cheerleaders are all over the place telling investors it’s time to buy because the market’s favorable winter season is almost here.

When I and others were pointing out the history of August, September, and October usually being the weakest three-month period of the year, they were all over the place saying either that it was not true or that the declines were too small to think about.

But now that September and the first half of October were down fairly sharply, they’re all over the place pointing out the history of those months being down sharply enough to create fear, and then a great buying opportunity.

Have they changed their minds about seasonality?

No, they know the truth, but can only admit to the half of annual seasonality that promotes buying, not the half that calls for caution.

Speaking of seasonality. 

This e-mail from a subscriber last week about our Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS):

“Sy, Just to let you know, when I got clobbered in the 2000 crash I was determined to understand market-timing and find a strategy that could make money in bull, bear, or sideways markets. I evaluate literally more than 60 so-called ‘gurus’. You and the STS strategy are the ONLY one that is consistently valid and profitable over any 3 year or longer period. The STS is a phenomenal strategy for its gains, avoiding the crashes, and the incredible simplicity of two trades a year. Amazing. (You can quote me if you like). Ed.

STS last 15 years. 

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth ‘Markets’ Update there tomorrow.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

There we go. At last a follow-up positive day to a big triple-digit rally day. The Dow was down 140 points in the early going, due to the big plunge in IBM, heavily weighted in The Dow. But even the Dow reversed to the upside in the afternoon to close up 19 points, or 0.1%. But the rest of the indexes, not as impacted by IBM, were significantly more positive than the Dow. However, volume dropped back from the 1 billion+ shares on the down days last week, to just 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE. The safe havens, gold and bonds, remained concerned though, gold closing up 0.7% and bonds (TLT) closing up 0.4%.

The Dow closed up 19 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.9%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.4%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.4%.

Gold closed up $5 an ounce at $1,244 an ounce on another pullback by the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.4%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.4%.

European Markets closed down quite sharply again yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.7%. The German DAX closed down 1.5%. France’s CAC closed down 1.0%. Belgium closed down 0.6%. Denmark closed up 0.6%. Finland closed down 0.6%. Greece closed up 1.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.9%. Netherlands closed down 0.7%. Norway closed down 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.2%. Spain closed down 0.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.4%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.5%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.9%. Hong Kong closed up 0.1%. India closed up 0.6%. Indonesia closed down 0.5%. Japan plunged 2.0%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.7%. South Korea closed down 1.0%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed down 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are bouncing back strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.0%

The London FTSE is up 0.9%. The German DAX is up 1.5%. France’s CAC is up 1.7%. Belgium is up 1.4%. Denmark is up 1.7%. Finland is up 1.0%. Greece is surging 4.7%. Ireland is up 2.6%. Italy is up 2.3%. Netherlands is up 1.8%. Norway is up 2.6%. Portugal is up 2.1%. Spain is up 2.1%. Switzerland is up 0.9%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.99 a barrel, at $83.67

Gold is up $7 an ounce at $1,252 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include some of importance, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, the FHFA Home Price Index, the Fed’s National Business Activity Index, Leading Economic Indicators, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only U.S. report will be Existing Home Sales, which will be released at 10 a.m.

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier highs but are still quite positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 75 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth ‘Markets’ Update there tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Market volatility continues but is bottom in?

Saturday, October 18, 12:30 p.m.

The market’s volatility continues, and it has the outlook and expectations of the financial media jumping up and down just as rapidly every few days, between “This correction is just beginning” to “That’s it, the bottom is in.”

There have been 16 triple-digit moves by the Dow in the last 21 trading days on a closing basis. That does not include the days with intraday triple-digit swings from the lows to the highs, or highs to lows, which were just as wild even on the days when the closes were not triple-digits.

Of the triple-digit closes, 6 were to the upside, 10 were to the downside.

Here’s how the closes went since September 18 when the volatility began, to yesterday’s 263 points to the upside:     +109; +13; –107; –116; +154; –274; –264; +167; –238; –3; +208;     –17; –272; +274; –334; –115; –223; –5; –173; –24; +263.

So far each day the Dow closed up triple-digits, creating a lot of TV pundit excitement and bottom-calling, there was no follow through even the next day. The triple-digit up-day was immediately followed by down-days to new correction lows.

That serves a purpose in both directions. As happens in all significant market declines, they are never in a straight line down. They have enough bounces to keep the majority of passive investors first confident, and then at least hopeful, all the way down.

In the other direction, repeated failure of buying the dips when the market quickly reverses to the downside, causes bullish active investors to be more cautious and wait longer the next time, which is how corrections cascade down, those buying the dips becoming less bold, those selling encouraged to sell more quickly into the brief rallies.

So will that pattern continue, with no follow through to yesterday’s triple-digit rally?

101814j

As you know, I’ve been expecting a short-term rally off the oversold condition, but it just hasn’t happened. But after four straight down weeks, surely it must be time for the bulls to show more gumption and confidence.

Well, maybe. 

Does a low unemployment rate indicate a pending recession?.

I must be reading this chart wrong. It was released by the St. Louis Fed this week. It shows the unemployment rate going back 65 years to 1950.

The green line is the “Civilian Unemployment Rate”. The shaded areas (vertical gray bars) are the recessions over that period. The Fed’s accompanying questions were only “What is the ‘normal unemployment rate?”, and “When will the unemployment rate get back to normal?” (the deep red line).

If there was more information in the chart surely the Fed would have noticed and commented on it. So, I’m probably misreading it, or missing something.

But I notice that unemployment was at peak levels by the time recessions ended. And we can understand why that would be.

However, I don’t know why it would be, but does the chart not also show that every time the unemployment rate came down to a low, a recession was about to begin?

image

Interesting though.

I wish I had more time to talk about the economy and earnings, but the subscribers area took longer than normal this morning.

End of day market manipulation.?

Long-time readers know that every once in a while I get into a rant about the indications that the large program-trading firms use their powerful buy-programs to manipulate the market, particularly the 30-stock Dow, in the final half hour of the day when they want it to close positive for the day or going into a weekend.

It’s so obvious that I often wonder why regulators don’t put an end to it.

But of course the program-trading firms are the largest brokerage firms and investment banks on Wall Street, and we know how they are favored by the regulators.

However, it does look like such actions are noticed, and actions even taken on some (if they’re not a big investment bank?).

This from MarketWatch yesterday:

SEC charges high-frequency trading firm for orders at end of the day!

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday charged a high-frequency trading firm for placing a large number of "aggressive, rapid-fire trades" in the final two seconds of almost every trading day, allegedly to manipulate thousands of Nasdaq-listed stocks. The SEC said Athena Capital Research agreed to pay a $1 million fine to settle the charges and did not admit or deny the findings. The manipulative trading the SEC alleged occurred from June to December 2009 and made up more than 70% of the total Nasdaq trading volume of the affected stocks in the seconds before the market close.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the mid-week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there Monday afternoon.

U.S. market yesterday.

Yes, volatility moves in both directions, this time to the upside. The Dow closed up 263 points or 1.8%. The rest of the market was positive but not as much.

Market breadth was not impressive, only twice as many stocks up as down on the NYSE, not near what would be expected on a day when the Dow is up 263 points. And breadth was barely positive on the Nasdaq, with 1,553 stocks up an 1,395 down.

Volume was heavy as it has been lately, just over 1.0 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 263 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.3%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.7%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,237 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.6%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.8%.

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed down 0.7%. Hong Kong closed up 0.5%. India closed up 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 1.6%. Japan closed down 1.4%. Malaysia closed up1.6%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.4%. South Korea closed down 1.0%. Taiwan closed down 1.4%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

European markets surged up yesterday along with the U.S.

The Europe Dow closed up 2.7%.

The London FTSE closed up 1.9%. The German DAX closed up 3.1%. France’s CAC closed up 2.9%. Belgium closed up 3.5%. Denmark closed up 4.0%. Finland closed up 3.1%. Greece closed up 7.2%. Ireland closed up 3.2%. Italy closed up 3.4%. Netherlands closed up 2.9%. Norway closed up 3.9%. Portugal closed up 2.6%. Spain closed up 2.9%. Switzerland closed up 2.4%.

Global markets for the week. 

It was an impressive day yesterday, but not enough to prevent the fourth straight negative week.

THIS WEEK (Oct. 17)
DJIA 16380 -1.0%
S&P 500 1,886 -1.1%
NYSE 10250 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4258 -0.4%
NASD 100 3815 -1.4%
Russ 2000 1082 +2.8%
DJTransprts 8147 +3.2%
DJ Utilities 553 +0.2%
XOI Oils 1,412 -1.8%
Gold bull. 1,237 +1.1%
GoldStcks 77.08 -0.2%
Canada 14227 unchgd
London 6310 -0.5%
Germany 8850 +0.7%
France 4033 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,023 -0.3%
Japan 14532 -5.0%
Australia 5260 +1.5%
S. Korea 1900 -2.1%
India 26108 -0.7%
Indonesia 5028 +1.3%
Brazil 55723 +0.7%
Mexico 43273 -0.4%
China 2451 -1.4%
LAST WEEK (Oct. 10)
DJIA 16544 -2.7%
S&P 500 1,906 -3.1%
NYSE 10293 -3.2%
NASDAQ 4276 -4.5%
NASD 100 3870 -3.9%
Russ 2000 1053 -4.6%
DJTransprts 7893 -6.9%
DJ Utilities 552 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,438 -4.8%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.7%
GoldStcks 77.26 -1.5%
Canada 14227 -3.8%
London 6339 -2.9%
Germany 8788 -4.4%
France 4073 -4.9%
Hong Kong 23,088 +0.1%
Japan 15,300 -2.6%
Australia 5185 -2.4%
S. Korea 1940 -1.8%
India 26297 -1.0%
Indonesia 4962 +0.3%
Brazil 55353 +1.9%
Mexico 43435 -2.8%
China 2485 +0.4%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Oct. 3)
DJIA 17,009 -0.6%
S&P 500 1,967 -0.8%
NYSE 10635 -1.5%
NASDAQ 4475 -0.8%
NASD 100 4027 -0.6%
Russ 2000 1104 -1.3%
DJTransprts 8481 -0.1%
DJ Utilities 555 +1.4%
XOI Oils 1,511 -4.6%
Gold bull. 1,191 -2.1%
GoldStcks 78.42 -6.6%
Canada 14789 -1.6%
London 6527 -1.8%
Germany 9195 -3.1%
France 4281 -2.6%
Hong Kong 23,064 -2.6%
Japan 15,708 -3.2%
Australia 5315 -0.1%
S. Korea 1976 -2.7%
India 26567 -0.2%
Indonesia 4949 -3.6%
Brazil 54297 -5.1%
Mexico 44689 -0.4%
China 2474 +0.7%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

 

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include some of importance, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, the FHFA Home Price Index, the Fed’s National Business Activity Index, Leading Economic Indicators, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the mid-week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there Monday afternoon.

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Correction Accelerates But Investors Not Worried.

Thursday, October 14, 9:25 a.m.

The U.S. market, already down three straight weeks, seems to be accelerating to the downside this week. The S&P 500, down 3.1% last week, is already down 2.8% in the first three days of this week, and the early morning indicators are pointing to a seriously negative opening this morning.

The acceleration can also be seen in the daily trading volume on the NYSE, which has doubled this week to 1.2 billion shares from the average daily volume of around 0.6 billion over the last year.

Meanwhile, the Fed is doing its job of providing optimism to calm markets and consumers, with for instance, its Beige Book report yesterday that the economic recovery is still on track.

And Wall Street is doing what it considers to be its job of keeping investors optimistic and confident, with its assurances that there is no correction in the cards, only a minor pullback.

It has had to keep changing its story, raising its definition of what constitutes just a pullback, repeatedly moving its support levels lower, constantly trying to grasp minor straws that it says might indicate the bottom is in.

And it is working.

The latest weekly poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), released last night shows those who are bullish has increased by 2.8% to 42.7, while those who are bears increased only 2.7% to 33.7%. By the time corrections end, fear has usually taken over, with bulls under 20% and bears above 50%.

That wasn’t much of a rally. 

In Tuesday’s blog I said the correction had reached a short-term oversold condition where a rally attempt off the oversold condition was likely.

The market rallied strongly for awhile Tuesday, with the Dow up 150 points at its high. But it then rolled over to the downside and closed down 5 points for the day, and has been down sharply since.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is a hotline from last evening, an in-depth Markets Update (U.S. stock market, bonds, and gold) from yesterday, and a Global Markets report from Tuesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Now that was volatility. The Dow was down 460 points by mid-afternoon before recovering in the final two hours to close down ‘only’ 173 points. Volume surged up to almost 1.2 billion shares traded on the NYSE. It had increased from the previous average of 0.6 billion, to around 0.9 billion. But today was just about double the average of 0.6 billion of the past year or two.

The Dow closed down 173 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.2%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.3%.

Gold closed up $5 an ounce at $1,239 an ounce on another pullback by the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 1.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.8%.

European Markets plunged sharply again yesterday.

The Europe Dow plunged 2.6%.

The London FTSE closed down 1.9%. The German DAX closed down 2.9%. France’s CAC closed down 2.9%. Belgium closed down 2.4%. Denmark closed down 2.6%. Finland closed down 2.7%. Greece plunged 5.6%.  Ireland closed down 2.6%. Italy plunged 4.4%. Netherlands closed down 2.6%. Norway closed down 2.1%. Portugal closed down 3.0%. Spain closed down 3.5%. Switzerland closed down 2.7%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The Asia-Dow closed down 1.4%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.7%. Hong Kong closed down 1.0%. India closed down 1.3%. Indonesia closed down 0.2%. Japan closed down 2.2%. Malaysia closed down 1.5%. New Zealand closed down 0.6%. South Korea closed down 0.4%. Singapore closed down 1.4%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed down 1.4%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are down sharply again this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 2.2%.

The London FTSE is down 1.6%. The German DAX is down 1.5%. France’s CAC is down 2.0%. Belgium is down 2.6%. Denmark is down 3.0%. Finland is down 1.9%. Greece is down 1.5%. Ireland is down 2.1%. Italy is down 3.3%. Netherlands is down 2.4%. Norway is down 3.1%. Portugal is down 4.0%. Spain is down 3.5%. Switzerland is down 2.5%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $1.20 a barrel, at $80.58

Gold is down $6 an ounce at $1,239 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This is a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports, including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

The reports have been primarily negative so far.

There were no reports on Monday.

Tuesday’s only U.S. report was that the Small Business Optimism Index fell from 96.1 in August to 95.3 in September. From Europe came reports that the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from +6.9 in September to –3.6 in October, its first time in negative territory since 2012. And inflation in the U.K. fell from 1.5% in August to 1.2% in September.

Yesterday’s reports were that overall mortgage applications rose 5.6% last week thanks to the drop in mortgage rates. But it was due entirely to applications for refinancing of existing mortgages, which were up 10.6%, while apps for home purchases fell 0.7%. The Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 27.5 in September to 6.2 in October. Retail Sales declined 0.3% in September, the first monthly negative reading since last winter’s sharp economic slowdown. And the Producer Price Index was negative by –0.1% in September, for the first in more than a year, moving opposite to the Fed’s target of 2.0%+. The ‘core rate’, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged for the month.

This morning’s reports so far are that weekly unemployment claims fell again last week, declining by 23,000 to 264,000, the lowest level in 14 years, much better than the consensus forecast of an increase to 289,000. And Industrial Production was up 1.0% in September, beating the consensus forecast for a gain of 0.4%.

Still to come are the Phila Fed Index, and the Housing Market Index, measuring the sentiment of home-builders, both of which will be released at 10 am.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 170 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

It’s Time for Another Rally Attempt.

Tuesday, October 14, 9:25 a.m.

I was surprised the bulls and Wall Street firms didn’t try harder yesterday to prevent the S&P 500 from breaking below its 200-day m.a. at 1,905, and then 1,900, knowing how analysts and pundits were putting so much importance on it.

But they seemed to just let it go.

101414a

However, that only made the market even more oversold beneath short-term 50-day moving averages, making another rally attempt even more likely.

101414b 

Another rally is also needed to prevent panic and keep buy and hold investors confident that they need do nothing to protect their assets.

But will it finally be a buy the dip opportunity, or just another opportunity to lighten up by selling into it?

Other Voices. 

Michael Sincere, MarketWatch: “Volatility has returned to the market. To be specific, the market has rallied, sold off, rallied, and sold off. This is ideal for day traders but unnerving for individual investors. It is also a big red warning sign. . . . . Failed rallies mean the party is almost over and a bear market is getting closer. . . . When fear does hit the market, there will be a mad rush out the door that will remind investors of 2008.”

Jeff Macke, Yahoo Finance: “The S&P 500 is now below the 200 day moving average for the first time since 2012 and off 6.8% from recent closing highs. Our next support comes at about 1,850 where we started the year. On a technical basis there’s no where to hide anymore. That’s sort of good in that it’s the end of the beginning of the sell-off but bad in that we don’t know where prices will bottom.”

Ari Wald, chief technical analyst, Oppenheimer Asset Management: “We would expect to see a bounce with many of our bottoming indicators in an oversold condition.”

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Another ugly and volatile day for the bulls. The Dow was up 60 points at mid-day and then reversed sharply to the downside to close on its low, down 223 points, or1.4%. Volume was surprisingly heavy for a semi-holiday, with almost 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down  223 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.7% (at 1,874). The NYSE Composite closed down 1.2%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.5%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.6%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. plunged 2.2%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed up $9 an ounce at $1,230 an ounce on another pullback by the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.6%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.6%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The London FTSE closed up 0.4%. The German DAX up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.1%. Belgium closed down 0.7%. Denmark closed down 0.5%. Finland closed down 0.1%. Greece closed up 0.1%.  Ireland closed down 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.3%. Netherlands closed down 0.3%. Norway closed up 0.5%. Portugal closed up 0.3%. Spain closed up 0.4%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.

Asian Markets mostly closed mixed last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 1.0%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.4%. India closed down 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan plunged 2.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.6%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets have come well off earlier lows but are still down some this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.1%. France’s CAC is down 0.2%. Belgium is down 0.4%. Denmark is up 0.3%. Finland is down 0.1%. Greece is plunging 5.5%. Ireland is up 0.1%. Italy is down 0.4%. Netherlands is down 0.8%. Norway is up 0.2%. Portugal is down 0.1%. Spain is down 0.1%. Switzerland is down 0.4%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.99 a barrel, at $84.75

Gold is up $3 an ounce at $1,232 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports, including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only U.S. report is that the Small Business Optimism Index fell from 96.1 in August to 95.3 in September. From Europe came reports that the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from +6.9 in September to –3.6 in October, its first time in negative territory since 2012. And inflation in the U.K. fell from 1.5% in August to 1.2% in September.

The pre-open indicators have come well off earlier lows and are quite positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 70 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Update (stocks, bonds, gold) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

It’s already not just another three percent pullback.

Saturday, October 11, 12:30 p.m.

I have often written over the years about the successful efforts of Wall Street’s large program-trading firms to fool investors by keeping the 30-stock Dow looking as positive as possible.

It works for two reasons.

First, most investors are wisely busy with careers or enjoying their retirements. So if they glance at their smartphone during the day, or flick on the TV when they get home, and see the Dow was up, then to them the market was up, and all is well. Even if they notice the Nasdaq was down, it doesn’t matter. The Dow is the market.

Secondly, since the Dow consists of only 30 stocks, it’s relatively easy for the program-trading firms to hit say 3 (10% of them) with a buy-program to lift the Dow when desired.

One employee at a program-trading firm boasted a number of years ago, “Tell me in the last half hour where you want the Dow to close and give me a few million to play with, and I could most often close it within 10 points of what you want. I couldn’t move it over a full day or a week, but for half an hour, no problem.”

It’s often very noticeable in the last half hour of the trading day when the market is down some and suddenly spikes up 30 points in the final minutes to close marginally positive. Or when it needs a similar last hour spike on a Friday to close it positive going into a weekend.

It also shows up on those relatively rare occasions when the market experiences a correction or something worse.

I wrote about it my 1999 book Riding the Bear. Back in the early 1900’s, before regulations came into being after the 1929 crash, market manipulation was not illegal. The famed investors of the time, Joseph P. Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, John D. Rockefeller, Carnegie, Walter Chrysler, and many others spoke openly about it, even boasted about using misleading publicity in radio shows and interviews near market tops, and pumping up the prices of some popular stocks to keep investors bullish, while the manipulators unloaded tons of stocks in the rest of the market, getting out slowly before public investors caught on and began selling and driving prices down on them.

We can know that similar activity is not possible now, with the tight rules and regulations under which Wall Street and the big players have to operate.

But isn’t it interesting what shows up in even a minor ‘pullback’, in the way of corrections sneaking up on markets.  

Wall Street’s assurances when this pullback began was that it would only be another of the many 3% pullbacks, perhaps 4%, the market has experienced since 2012.

And so it has been so far, for the Dow. From their peaks the declines look like this:

DJIA: – 4.3%

S&P 500: –5.2%

NYSE Composite:  -7.0%

Nasdaq: 7.0%

DJ Transportation Avg:  -9.0%

Russell 2000: –12.8%

It explains why in market corrections investors who are not concerned about the market because the Dow is looking resilient, are often surprised when they get their monthly brokerage or mutual fund statements. While the Dow, or even the S&P 500, are looked on as representing the market for them, the most popular investment areas for investors are not the 30 Dow stocks but the small stocks of the Russell 2000 and the more exciting and promising stocks of the Nasdaq.

It’s been similar how, until recently, U.S. investors were not concerned about the plunges in global markets. After all, the U.S. market was doing well. Just look at the Dow, until this week, down only 2% or so.

It would seem that it’s already been shown that this is not just another 3% pullback.

Speaking of global markets.

No commentary needed. Many with the largest economies are back to, or below, their levels of last October.

And never mind short-term 50-day moving averages, below long-term 200-day m.a.’s.

101114a

101114b

101114c

101114d

But are they oversold enough to produce at least an impressive oversold rally on the first piece of good news they hear?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

U.S. market yesterday.

Another triple-digit decline by the Dow. Much worse declines by the rest of market, most notably the Nasdaq. And volume was very heavy, more than 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE. No attempt to close the market positive going into the weekend. They just let it go, closing on its low. Mmmmh.

The Dow closed down 115 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.2%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.5%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 2.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.7%.

Gold closed down $2 an ounce at $1,223 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.0%.

Asian markets also plunged in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 1.6%.

Australia closed down 2.0%. China closed down 0.6%. Hong Kong closed down 1.9%. India closed down 1.3%. Indonesia closed down 0.6%. Japan closed down 1.3%. Malaysia closed down 0.9%. New Zealand closed down 0.8%. Singapore closed down 1.0%. South Korea closed down 1.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.5%.

European markets plunged again yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 2.5%.

The London FTSE closed down 1.4%. The German DAX closed down 2.4%. France’s CAC closed down 1.6%. Belgium closed down 1.6%. Denmark closed down 2.0%. Finland closed down 1.6%. Greece closed down 2.0%. Ireland closed down 1.6%. Italy closed down 0.9%. Netherlands closed down 1.7%. Norway closed down 1.8%. Portugal closed down 1.1%. Spain closed down 1.2%. Switzerland closed down 1.3%.

Global markets for the week. 

It’s been a while since we’ve seen three straight down weeks, as well as such large declines, and for a change, for U.S. markets to be down as much as markets elsewhere.

THIS WEEK (Oct. 10)
DJIA 16544 -2.7%
S&P 500 1,906 -3.1%
NYSE 10293 -3.2%
NASDAQ 4276 -4.5%
NASD 100 3870 -3.9%
Russ 2000 1053 -4.6%
DJTransprts 7893 -6.9%
DJ Utilities 552 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,438 -4.8%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.7%
GoldStcks 77.26 -1.5%
Canada 14227 -3.8%
London 6339 -2.9%
Germany 8788 -4.4%
France 4073 -4.9%
Hong Kong 23,088 +0.1%
Japan 15,300 -2.6%
Australia 5185 -2.4%
S. Korea 1940 -1.8%
India 26297 -1.0%
Indonesia 4962 +0.3%
Brazil 55353 +1.9%
Mexico 43435 -2.8%
China 2485 +0.4%
LAST WEEK (Oct. 3)
DJIA 17,009 -0.6%
S&P 500 1,967 -0.8%
NYSE 10635 -1.5%
NASDAQ 4475 -0.8%
NASD 100 4027 -0.6%
Russ 2000 1104 -1.3%
DJTransprts 8481 -0.1%
DJ Utilities 555 +1.4%
XOI Oils 1,511 -4.6%
Gold bull. 1,191 -2.1%
GoldStcks 78.42 -6.6%
Canada 14789 -1.6%
London 6527 -1.8%
Germany 9195 -3.1%
France 4281 -2.6%
Hong Kong 23,064 -2.6%
Japan 15,708 -3.2%
Australia 5315 -0.1%
S. Korea 1976 -2.7%
India 26567 -0.2%
Indonesia 4949 -3.6%
Brazil 54297 -5.1%
Mexico 44689 -0.4%
China 2474 +0.7%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Sept. 26)
DJIA 17,113 -1.0%
S&P 500 1,982 -1.4%
NYSE 10798 -1.7%
NASDAQ 4512 -1.5%
NASD 100 4053 -1.2%
Russ 2000 1119 -2.4%
DJTransprts 8484 -1.7%
DJ Utilities 548 -1.6%
XOI Oils 1,583 -2.2%
Gold bull. 1,217 +0.1%
GoldStcks 83.92 -3.5%
Canada 15026 -1.6%
London 6649 -2.8%
Germany 9490 -3.2%
France 4394 -1.5%
Hong Kong 23,678 -2.6%
Japan 16229 -0.6%
Australia 5316 -2.2%
S. Korea 2031 -1.1%
India 26626 -1.7%
Indonesia 5132 -1.8%
Brazil 57201 -1.0%
Mexico 44884 -1.9%
China 2457 +0.8%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

 

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Monday is a U.S. holiday, Columbus Day. Banks and bond market will be closed but stock and futures markets will be open.

Next week will be a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports, including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Can the Fed Come to the Rescue Again if Needed

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Login