Have Global Markets Bottomed?

Thursday, October 30, 9:25 a.m.

A number of global markets outside of the U.S. have been in serious declines. But have they bottomed? Or just rallied back from oversold conditions beneath their 50-day m.a. back up to potential resistance at the moving averages?

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To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day until the FOMC statement was released, and then considerable volatility. The Dow was up as much as 60 points in the early going, and then down as much as 110 points after the statement, but recovered to close down 31 points, or 0.2%. Volume was 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 31 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.4%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.

Gold closed down $17 an ounce at $1,211 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.8%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.2%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.8%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed down 0.1%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 0.9%. Finland closed unchanged. Greece plunged 2.7%.  Ireland closed down 0.6%. Italy closed down 1.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 1.2%. Portugal closed down 0.8%. Spain closed down 1.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.3%.

Asian Markets mostly closed higher last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed down 0.5%. India closed up 0.9%. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed up 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are well off earlier lows but still down this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 1.7%

The London FTSE is down 0.5%. The German DAX is down 0.8%. France’s CAC is down 0.3%. Belgium is down 0.9%. Denmark is up 1.1%. Finland is down 0.4%. Greece is plunging 3.4%. Ireland is down 0.5%. Italy is down 1.4%. Netherlands is down 0.7%. Norway is down 1.6%. Portugal is down 2.7%. Spain is down 1.5%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.80 a barrel, at $81.41

Gold is down $5 an ounce at $1,206 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, the first report on 3rd quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were the PMI Services Sector Index, which slowed to its lowest level in 6 months, falling from 58.9 in September to 57.3 in October. The Pending Home Sales Index ticked up 0.3% from 104.7 in August to 105 in September. And the Dallas Fed Mfg Index ticked down from 10.8 in September to 10.5 in October.

Tuesday’s reports were that Durable Goods Orders fell 1.3% in September versus the consensus forecast of a rise of 0.2%. It was the 2nd straight monthly decline. But the Case-Shiller Home Prices Report showed U.S. home prices were up another 0.2% in August. And Consumer Confidence jumped from 89 in September to 95.5, much better than the consensus forecast of a decline to 87.3.

The only ‘report’ yesterday was the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, which indicated the Fed is more positive on the economy, but still able to keep rates low ‘for a considerable time’ due to the continuing low inflation.

This morning’s reports are that 3rd quarter GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized pace, somewhat better than the consensus forecast of 3.0%. And new weekly unemployment claims were up by a meaningless 3,000 last week to 287,000. The four-month m.a. ticked up by 250 to 281,000. 

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier lows after the GDP report, and are mixed.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so in the early going, but S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq are still pointing down some.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
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  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
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Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Gold Mining Stocks A Bad Sign for Gold Bullion

Tuesday, October 28, 9:25 a.m.

Gold bullion gets all the attention. It’s been in a serious bear market since its peak in 2011.

And our technical indicators remain on a sell signal after gold’s last failed attempt to rally.

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As often happens the gold-mining stocks topped out first and led the way down.

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And gold mining stocks have broken down to new bear market lows, which is not a positive for the bullion.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

The market closed flat for a change. The Dow closed up 12 points, or 0.1%, and that due only to buy programs in the final 10 minutes. Volume was 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 12 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.2%.

Gold closed down $3 an ounce at $1,228 an ounce even though the dollar closed down.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.2%.

European Markets closed down again yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.4%. The German DAX closed down 1.0%. France’s CAC closed down 0.8%. Belgium closed down 0.5%. Denmark closed up 0.3%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece plunged 3.3%.  Ireland closed down 0.1%. Italy closed down 2.4%. Netherlands closed down 0.3%. Norway closed down 0.5%. Portugal closed down 0.9%. Spain closed down 1.4%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed down 0.2%. China closed up 2.0%. Hong Kong closed up 1.6%. India closed up 0.5%. Indonesia closed down 0.5%. Japan closed down 0.2%. Malaysia closed down 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed down 0.3%. Singapore closed down 0.5%. Taiwan closed up 1.7%. Thailand closed up 0.6%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are bouncing back strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.4%

The London FTSE is up 0.6%. The German DAX is up 1.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.5%. Belgium is up 1.4%. Denmark is down 0.8%. Finland is up 1.2%. Greece is plunging 3.3%. Ireland is up 0.7%. Italy is up 1.8%. Netherlands is up 1.6%. Norway is up 1.3%. Portugal is up 1.7%. Spain is up 1.6%. Switzerland is up 1.4%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.49 a barrel, at $81.49

Gold is up $4 an ounce at $1,232 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, the first report on 3rd quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were the PMI Services Sector Index, which slowed to its lowest level in 6 months, falling from 58.9 in September to 57.3 in October. The Pending Home Sales Index ticked up 0.3% from 104.7 in August to 105 in September. And the Dallas Fed Mfg Index which ticked down from 10.8 in September to 10.5 in October..

This morning’s reports so far were that Durable Goods Orders fell 1.3% in September versus the consensus forecast of a rise of 0.2%. It was the 2nd straight monthly decline. Within the report, orders for core capital goods, an indication of business investment, fell 1.7%, its biggest decline since last January’s winter slowdown in the economy. And the Case-Shiller Home Prices Report showed U.S. home prices were up another 0.2% in August. Still to come is Consumer Confidence, which will be released at 10 a.m.

The Durable Goods report pulled the pre-open indicators back from earlier highs. But they remain positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 70 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Does the volatility mean anything?

Saturday, October 25, 12 noon.

Volatility that has been in global markets for quite some time, while U.S. investors could be calm and complacent amidst small daily moves, whether the market was advancing or pulling back, has come to U.S. markets, with triple-digit daily moves the norm, and now sizable weekly moves.

This week CNBC celebrated the best week for the S&P 500 since January 2013. A few weeks ago it was bemoaning the worst week for the S&P 500 since May 2012.

A big week to the upside raises hope, just as much as a big down-week causes concern. Similarly, a string of daily triple-digit rallies raises hope, just as a string of daily triple-digit down days causes concern.

There have now been 20 triple-digit moves by the Dow in the last 26 trading days on a closing basis. That does not include the days with intraday triple-digit swings from the lows to the highs, or highs to lows, which were just as wild even on the days when the closes were not triple-digits.

Of the triple-digit closes, 9 were to the upside, 11 were to the downside.

Here’s an update on the closes since Sept. 18 when the volatility began, to yesterday’s 127 points to the upside:     +109; +13; –107; –116; +154; –274; –264; +167; –238; –3; +208;     –17; –272; +274; –334; –115; –223; –5; –173; –24; +263; +19; +215; –153; +216; +127.

So far, the down moves have dominated, since the market is down from its September 18 peak. But the up-moves have had much more effect on investor emotions, since the AAII poll shows high bullishness and low bearishness just about back to the level of euphoria and confidence just before the September peak. And that was as of Wednesday, so doesn’t include the effect the last few days of rally have probably had on the readings.

As I noted in my weekend newspaper column, for the moment anyway, it still looks as much like just a rally off the short-term oversold condition created by the four straight down weeks as it does the resumption of the bull market.

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But we should soon know.

Next week has some very important economic reports coming out, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, the first report on 3rd quarter GDP, etc. 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the mid-week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.

U.S. market yesterday.

Triple-digit moves have become the norm.

The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.8%. Volume 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 127 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.7%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.7%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.2%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,230 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.1%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed unchanged.

Australia closed up 0.6%. China closed unchanged. Hong Kong closed down 0.1%. India closed up 0.8%. Indonesia closed down 0.6%. Japan closed up 1.0%. Malaysia closed up 0.6%. New Zealand closed up 0.8%. Singapore closed down 0.4%. South Korea closed down 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 1.0%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.

European markets ended their bounce-back week with a decline yesterday.

The Europe Dow closedown 0.5%.

The London FTSE closed down 0.5%. The German DAX closed down 0.7%. France’s CAC closed down 0.7%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.6%. Finland closed down 0.8%. Greece closed up 0.1%. Ireland closed down 0.6%. Italy closed up 0.3%. Netherlands closed down 0.2%. Norway closed up 0.2%. Portugal closed down 0.8%. Spain closed up 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Global markets for the week. 

It was an impressive week, ending the unusual four straight down weeks. It was the best week for the S&P 500 since January 2103. A few weeks ago it was the worst week for the S&P 500 since May 2012.

THIS WEEK (Oct. 24)
DJIA 16805 +2.6%
S&P 500 1,964 +4.1%
NYSE 10582 +3.2%
NASDAQ 4483 +5.3%
NASD 100 4042 +6.0%
Russ 2000 1118 +3.3%
DJTransprts 8568 +5.2%
DJ Utilities 583 +3.8%
XOI Oils 1,454 +3.0%
Gold bull. 1,230 -0.6%
GoldStcks 75.93 -1.5%
Canada 14543 +2.2%
London 6388 +1.2%
Germany 8987 +1.5%
France 4128 +2.4%
Hong Kong 23,302 +1.2%
Japan 15291 +5.2%
Australia 5399 +2.6%
S. Korea 1925 +1.3%
India 26851 +2.9%
Indonesia 5073 +0.9%
Brazil 51940 -6.8%
Mexico 43666 +0.9%
China 2410 -1.7%
LAST WEEK (Oct. 17)
DJIA 16380 -1.0%
S&P 500 1,886 -1.1%
NYSE 10250 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4258 -0.4%
NASD 100 3815 -1.4%
Russ 2000 1082 +2.8%
DJTransprts 8147 +3.2%
DJ Utilities 553 +0.2%
XOI Oils 1,412 -1.8%
Gold bull. 1,237 +1.1%
GoldStcks 77.08 -0.2%
Canada 14227 unchgd
London 6310 -0.5%
Germany 8850 +0.7%
France 4033 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,023 -0.3%
Japan 14532 -5.0%
Australia 5260 +1.5%
S. Korea 1900 -2.1%
India 26108 -0.7%
Indonesia 5028 +1.3%
Brazil 55723 +0.7%
Mexico 43273 -0.4%
China 2451 -1.4%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Oct. 10)
DJIA 16544 -2.7%
S&P 500 1,906 -3.1%
NYSE 10293 -3.2%
NASDAQ 4276 -4.5%
NASD 100 3870 -3.9%
Russ 2000 1053 -4.6%
DJTransprts 7893 -6.9%
DJ Utilities 552 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,438 -4.8%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.7%
GoldStcks 77.26 -1.5%
Canada 14227 -3.8%
London 6339 -2.9%
Germany 8788 -4.4%
France 4073 -4.9%
Hong Kong 23,088 +0.1%
Japan 15,300 -2.6%
Australia 5185 -2.4%
S. Korea 1940 -1.8%
India 26297 -1.0%
Indonesia 4962 +0.3%
Brazil 55353 +1.9%
Mexico 43435 -2.8%
China 2485 +0.4%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a significant week for U.S. economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting, the first report on 3rd quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the mid-week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Investors are even more euphoric and confident.

Thursday, October 23, 9:25 a.m.

As noted on the blog last Thursday, even though the market had been down for three straight weeks, last week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the bullish percentage had increased to 42.7%, with those bearish at only 33.7%.

After the market’s four straight up days, this week’s poll, released last night, showed another big jump.

Bullish percentage: +7 to 49.7%

Bearish percentage : –11.2 to 22.5%

Those are numbers usually associated with close to market tops, not correction lows, and from the looks of the pre-open indicators, investors will be piling into the market even more feverishly this morning, which will spike bullishness, and plunge bearishness even further.

By the time corrections are over, fear has usually taken over, with bulls under 20% and bears above 50%, just about opposite to current readings.

For instance, in early September, just before the market peak in mid-September bulls had climbed to 51.9%, bears had dropped to 19.2%, just in time for the top.

But sentiment does not provide signals, it only indicates risk. It can get more lop-sided, but at current levels it is a reason for concern.

Market still short-term oversold.

Meanwhile, the market is still short-term oversold beneath 50-day moving averages. But that could change today if the big rally likely at the open holds through the day.

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Volatility since mid-September. 

To update the day-to-day listing we began on Saturday’s blog:

There have now been 18 triple-digit moves by the Dow in the last 24 trading days on a closing basis. That does not include the days with intraday triple-digit swings from the lows to the highs, or highs to lows, which were just as wild even on the days when the closes were not triple-digits.

Of the triple-digit closes, 7 were to the upside, 11 were to the downside.

Here’s how the closes went since September 18 when the volatility began, to today’s 153 points to the downside:     +109; +13; –107; –116; +154; –274; –264; +167; –238; –3; +208;  –17; –272; +274; –334; –115; –223; –5; –173; –24; +263; +19; +215; -153.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is a hotline and an in-depth Markets Update (stock market, gold, & bonds) from last night, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Volatility continues. After three straight rally days for the Dow, it closed down yesterday. Volume increased to almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 153 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.7%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.4%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.4%.

Gold closed down $6 an ounce at $1,245 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.4%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.1%.

European Markets closed up yesterday for 3rd straight day.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.1%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.4%. The German DAX closed up 0.6%. France’s CAC closed up 0.6%. Belgium closed up 1.0%. Denmark closed up 1.9%. Finland closed up 1.0%. Greece closed down 0.6%.  Ireland closed up 1.0%. Italy closed up 1.1%. Netherlands closed up 0.4%. Norway closed up 1.2%. Portugal closed up 0.3%. Spain closed up 1.0%. Switzerland closed up 1.2%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.3%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed down 1.1%. Hong Kong closed down 0.3%. India closed up 0.8%. Indonesia closed up 0.6%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.4%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are off earlier lows, now mixed.

The Europe Dow is up 0.3%

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is up 0.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.6%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Denmark is up 0.2%. Finland is up 0.8%. Greece is down 1.1%. Ireland is up 0.1%. Italy is down 0.1%. Netherlands is down 0.2%. Norway is down 0.5%. Portugal is down 0.3%. Spain is up 0.1%. Switzerland is up 0.1%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Gold is down $9 an ounce at $1,236 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include some of importance, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, the FHFA Home Price Index, the Fed’s National Business Activity Index, Leading Economic Indicators, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on Monday.

Tuesday’s report was that Existing Home Sales were up 2.4% in September, better than the consensus estimate.

Yesterday’s only report was that the Consumer Price Index was up only 0.1% in September.

This morning’s reports so far are that weekly unemployment claims rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but remained below the key number of 300,000. The four-week moving average fell by 3,000 to 281,000. The Chicago Fed’s National Business Index improved from negative –0.25 in August to + 0.47 in September. And the FHFA Home Price Index showed home prices were up again in August, rising 0.5%. Still to come are the PMI Mfg Index, which will be released at 9:45 am, and Leading Economic Indicators, which will be released at10 am.

The pre-open indicators have been strengthening all morning and are now very positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 170 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is a hotline and an in-depth Markets Update (stock market, gold, & bonds) from last night, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Will Global Market Collapses Pull U.S. Down?

Tuesday, October 21, 9:25 a.m.

The S&P 500 broke fractionally below its 50-day m.a. and rallied back, but found the 50-day m.a. to be overhead resistance this time, and plunged back down. It produced a bit of a scare when it then broke beneath its long-term 200-day m.a.

However its pullback was less than 10%, and it has now been up for two days. That has investors and the financial media optimistic that that’s all there will be of the downside.

102114a

But holy cow. The collapses in markets around the world are not just minor pullbacks. Something is certainly going on globally that the U.S. market is still pretty much ignoring.

Markets in Europe topped out several months before the U.S. market, and followed the same pattern as the U.S. market. They had been making new record highs along with the U.S. market, then broke beneath their 50-day m.a. No big deal.

But then, like the U.S. market they attempted to rally and this time, also like the U.S., found the 50-day m.a. to be overhead resistance, and also like the U.S. market, they pulled back further and broke below the long-term support at the 200 day m.a.

But they are several months ahead of the U.S. market, and their first rally attempt after breaking beneath the 200-day m.a. failed at that m.a., and their plunges have worsened in another leg down.

102114b

It’s not just Europe that the long-term 200-day m.a. is looking like overhead resistance. We can see the same thing is the Latin American Index (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, etc).

102114c

102114d

Is this something that should concern U.S. markets as they rally back to their 200-day m.a.’s, or can the U.S. economy and markets go it alone in a renewed bull market?

102114e

Other Voices. 

Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners: “By my calculation Carl Icahn’s portfolio has lost 15% to 20%, more than $6 billion, from recent market highs. My intention is not to be critical of Icahn, but to deliver the lesson and message that if one of the world’s most successful investors is having a tough time of it, all investors should pay heed to a market that could, and has, lost its innocence. . . . . . Everybody seems to be looking up when they should be looking down.”

Speaking of billionaire losses, given his holdings in IBM Warren Buffett reportedly lost more than $1 billion yesterday on IBM’s 7% plunge.

Can Wall Street have it both ways on seasonality? 

As happens every year, in the spring when some in the financial media bring up the remarkable history of Sell in May (and buy back in November), Wall Street and its cheerleaders are all over the place slamming it. Pay no attention, seasonality is just a myth.

However, now that fall is here, those same cheerleaders are all over the place telling investors it’s time to buy because the market’s favorable winter season is almost here.

When I and others were pointing out the history of August, September, and October usually being the weakest three-month period of the year, they were all over the place saying either that it was not true or that the declines were too small to think about.

But now that September and the first half of October were down fairly sharply, they’re all over the place pointing out the history of those months being down sharply enough to create fear, and then a great buying opportunity.

Have they changed their minds about seasonality?

No, they know the truth, but can only admit to the half of annual seasonality that promotes buying, not the half that calls for caution.

Speaking of seasonality. 

This e-mail from a subscriber last week about our Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS):

“Sy, Just to let you know, when I got clobbered in the 2000 crash I was determined to understand market-timing and find a strategy that could make money in bull, bear, or sideways markets. I evaluate literally more than 60 so-called ‘gurus’. You and the STS strategy are the ONLY one that is consistently valid and profitable over any 3 year or longer period. The STS is a phenomenal strategy for its gains, avoiding the crashes, and the incredible simplicity of two trades a year. Amazing. (You can quote me if you like). Ed.

STS last 15 years. 

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth ‘Markets’ Update there tomorrow.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

There we go. At last a follow-up positive day to a big triple-digit rally day. The Dow was down 140 points in the early going, due to the big plunge in IBM, heavily weighted in The Dow. But even the Dow reversed to the upside in the afternoon to close up 19 points, or 0.1%. But the rest of the indexes, not as impacted by IBM, were significantly more positive than the Dow. However, volume dropped back from the 1 billion+ shares on the down days last week, to just 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE. The safe havens, gold and bonds, remained concerned though, gold closing up 0.7% and bonds (TLT) closing up 0.4%.

The Dow closed up 19 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.9%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.4%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.4%.

Gold closed up $5 an ounce at $1,244 an ounce on another pullback by the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.4%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.4%.

European Markets closed down quite sharply again yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.7%. The German DAX closed down 1.5%. France’s CAC closed down 1.0%. Belgium closed down 0.6%. Denmark closed up 0.6%. Finland closed down 0.6%. Greece closed up 1.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.9%. Netherlands closed down 0.7%. Norway closed down 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.2%. Spain closed down 0.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.4%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.5%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.9%. Hong Kong closed up 0.1%. India closed up 0.6%. Indonesia closed down 0.5%. Japan plunged 2.0%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.7%. South Korea closed down 1.0%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed down 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are bouncing back strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.0%

The London FTSE is up 0.9%. The German DAX is up 1.5%. France’s CAC is up 1.7%. Belgium is up 1.4%. Denmark is up 1.7%. Finland is up 1.0%. Greece is surging 4.7%. Ireland is up 2.6%. Italy is up 2.3%. Netherlands is up 1.8%. Norway is up 2.6%. Portugal is up 2.1%. Spain is up 2.1%. Switzerland is up 0.9%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.99 a barrel, at $83.67

Gold is up $7 an ounce at $1,252 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include some of importance, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, the FHFA Home Price Index, the Fed’s National Business Activity Index, Leading Economic Indicators, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only U.S. report will be Existing Home Sales, which will be released at 10 a.m.

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier highs but are still quite positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 75 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column, click here:  Janet Yellen is Wrong about the Cause of Wealth Inequality

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth ‘Markets’ Update there tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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