Dismal news from just about everywhere this morning.

Tuesday, September 16, 9:25 a.m.

Germany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Index fell from 8.6 in August to 6.9 in September.

France’s Prime Minister warned that if economic and financial conditions are not reversed “in three to six months, we’ll be ‘foutu’”, which is being translated as ruined or knackered.

China reported that foreign direct investment inflows in August fell to a 2.5 year low, down 14% from a year earlier.

In the U.S., the Fed is still not getting the bump in inflation it wants to provide a boost to the economy. The Producer Price Index, measuring inflation at the producer level, remained unchanged in August, at its lowest level since December. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was up just 0.2%. The Fed wants inflation running at 2.0% or a bit above.

And global markets are down just about everywhere.

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Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

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Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Tell me that was not market-manipulation by the program-trading firms, buying a few Dow stocks to keep the Dow positive, while dumping stocks everywhere else.

The 30-stock Dow closed up 43 points or 0.3%. But there were twice as many stocks down as up in the broad NYSE, and more than three times as many stocks down as up on the Nasdaq, while the indexes other than the Dow also closed down. But retail investors will retain their bullishness and confidence when they get home from work and see that the Dow was up for the day.

The Dow closed up 43 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%, at 1,984. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.0%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.3%.

Gold closed up $4 an ounce at $1,239 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.

European Markets closed down some yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.1%.

The London FTSE closed down 0.1%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.3%. Belgium closed down 0.3%. Denmark closed unchanged. Finland closed up 0.1%. Greece closed down 0.5%.  Ireland closed down 0.9%. Italy closed down 1.0%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed down 0.2%. Portugal closed down 1.3%. Spain closed down 0.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed down sharply last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.7%.

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed down 1.8%. Hong Kong closed down 0.9%. India closed down 1.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.2%. Malaysia closed down 0.5%. New Zealand closed down 0.4%. South Korea closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed down 1.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.9%. Thailand closed down 0.9%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down again this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.3%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.6%. The German DAX is down 0.7%. France’s CAC is down 0.8%. Belgium is down 0.7%. Denmark is down 0.9%. Finland is down 0.7%. Greece is down 2.1%. Ireland is down 0.6%. Italy is down 0.7%. Netherlands is down 0.4%. Norway is down 0.4%. Portugal is down 0.9%. Spain is down 0.9%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.50 a barrel, at $93.42

Gold is up $2 at $1,237 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be an active one for U.S. economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index, New Housing Starts, the Phila Fed Index, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting ends, and Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to..

Yesterday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index improved to 27.5 in September, much better than the than the consensus forecast for 16.0. But Industrial Production nationally fell 0.1% in August its first monthly decline in 7 months.

This morning’s only report is that the Producer Price Index, measuring inflation at the producer level, remained unchanged in August, at the lowest level since December. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was up just 0.2%.

The pre-open indicators have been weakening all morning.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 50 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Last Stand Approaching for Gold

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

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This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Was the market’s down week of any importance?

Saturday, September 13, 12 noon.

The market’s winning streak paused this week. It confirmed the short-term sell signal triggered by our technical indicators.

But is it of any importance beyond the short-term?

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It probably depends on where we are in the investor sentiment market cycle, and when we get the next short-term buy signal.

We can pretty much know from the extreme bullish sentiment readings of the VIX Index, Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index, put/call ratios, record margin debt, and so forth, that we’re at least somewhere between the ‘thrill’ and ‘euphoria’ stage.

But if we’re already at the euphoria stage, how big a short-term pullback so soon after the recent one would it take to perhaps move the cycle on to the ‘anxiety’ stage?

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That would not be good.

But we can know that the large Wall Street firms that dominate the trading with their program-trading activities, especially in the final hour each day, will do all they can to encourage buying the dip. They are well aware of the importance of preventing a slide down through the other stages of the cycles.

The problem is that, with 25 bear markets over the last 114 years, or one on average of every 4.5 years, they obviously don’t always succeed.

Consumers are on the march?

That was the consensus take on this week’s economic reports.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index rose from 82.5 in August to 84.6 in September.

Retail sales were up 0.6% in August, their highest level since April. The consensus opinion was that the reports confirm the strength of the economy.

Really? I prefer to look at trends not the excitement of individual reports.

Did August’s positive report of a 0.6% increase change the multi-year downtrend in consumer spending since 2011? Does the trend still not have the same troubling appearance of how slowing retail sales led the way to the 2001 and 2008 recessions? 

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Gold and inflation expectations.

Gold, the red line in the next chart, surged up from $250 an ounce in 2001, to just over $1,900 an ounce in 2011.

The fuel for the 10-year spike up was primarily a conviction that the easy money policies adopted by the Fed, first in response to the 2001 recession and then the 911 terrorist attacks, which were then left in place, and dramatically increased after the 2008 financial meltdown, would create a huge inflationary spiral, similar to that of the 1970’s that had inflation running above 14%.

The next chart shows what has actually happened with inflation (the blue line in the chart) in relation to the inflation-adjusted price of gold (the red line).

Gold vs. the CPI. As you can see, gold has done extremely well, even though inflation has been moderating for a long time.

It’s something to keep in mind when you read what some folks write about the stock market actually being cheap when valued in gold rather than dollars.

Obviously that does not mean that the stock market will soar to catch up to gold’s value. Is it not just as likely to indicate that gold may tumble to catch down to the reality of inflation and the level of the stock market?

The Fed, and central banks in Europe would like to see an increase in inflation, needed to give economies a boost. You can see from the chart why they would be nervous with current situation of benign and even declining inflation, given how declining inflation (the blue line) has so often been associated with recessions (the vertical grey lines).

Apple’s iPhone intro is great example of the power of hype.

The new iPhone is out! The new iPhone6 is out. And it’s fabulous!

OMG, it has a 4.7-inch screen! It . . .

But wait a minute, is Apple blazing new ground or finally beginning to catch up to the competition?

I used iPhones for a few years, but switched to Android phones when their technology leaped ahead of Apple’s. I’ve had a Samsung Galaxy S5 for quite some time now. It has a 5.1-inch screen.

Yeah, but a bigger version of the iPhone 6 was also introduced at the same time, the iPhone 6 Plus. It has a 5.5-inch screen.

Okay, but Samsung’s larger version of its Galaxy S5, the Galaxy Note 4, out for a year now, has a 5.7 inch screen.

Oh. . . . . Well, the iPhone 6 now has much longer battery life than before, up to 14 hours for talk, and 50 hours for music.

Okay, but my Samsung Galaxy S5’s battery is rated for up to 21 hours for talk and 67 hours for music.

Oh. Well, the new iPhone’s camera is improved to 8MP on the primary camera and 1.2 MP on the front-facing camera. 

Okay, but my Samsung Galaxy S5’s camera is 16 MP on the primary and 2MP on the front-facing.

Alright. But the iPhone 6 is only $199 with a 2-year carrier contract.

Ah, you got me there. The Samsung Galaxy S5 is $199.99.

And there are more than a million apps (applications) available on the iPhone.

Well, as I understand there are more than a million apps available on Android phones too. So both suffer the same over-abundance. By the way, iPhones don’t run widgets, which are clever extensions of app’s, a choice that is on an Android phone’s home screen.

Meanwhile, I don’t have much interest in social networking. But I see that reviewers are complaining that the iPhone is still not capable of browsing easily through sites like Facebook and Twitter without “diving deep” into add-on apps. All the newer Android phones have Facebook and Twitter widgets (as noted iPhones still do not have widgets), allowing easy browsing without first launching an app.

Oh. . . .  Well you have to admit the new ‘Apple Pay’ feature that let’s you pay in stores using your iPhone instead of a credit card is a great feature.

Yes, it is. It works on a technology called ‘near-field communication’, which has been in many Android phones for some time, used in phone-pay systems like Google Wallet, which are similar to Apple’s new Apple Pay. But the Apple Pay system does seem to be better, and has more security, for instance using fingerprint identification. 

I mean, I don’t know which smartphone is best. There are quite a few, all with their individual fans, none probably as loyal as Apple users.

But none have had so many features that still don’t meet the competition, so successfully hyped. The iPhone 6 Plus was completely sold out in a couple of days, and the Apple store website crashed from the volume of buyers trying to get on it?

Speaking of successful hype, I see that the investment banks running Alibaba Group’s upcoming IPO are so pleased with the institutional response from its global marketing road show, that they are closing the order books early (next Tuesday), and hinted they may raise the initial offering price to the public as a result of the demand.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Last Stand Approaching for Gold

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update (Stock market, gold, bonds) from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

U.S. market yesterday.

A negative day on heavier volume of almost 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE. The Dow was down as much as 112 points late in the day, but buy programs in the last hour lifted it to close it down only 61 points.

The Dow closed up 67 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.6% at 1,985. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.0%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.8%.

Gold closed down $10 an ounce at $1,230 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 1.1%.

Asian markets mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.3%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 0.3%. China closed up 0.9%. Hong Kong closed down 0.3%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed up 0.2%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed down 0.7%. South Korea closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 1.1%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

European markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.1%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.1%. The German DAX closed down 0.4%. France’s CAC closed up 0.1%. Belgium closed down 0.1%. Denmark closed up 1.1%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece closed down 0.5%. Ireland closed up 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 0.5%. Portugal closed down 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.

Global markets for the week. 

A negative week everywhere except a few markets in Asia (Japan, India and China). Big down week for gold, oil, and utilities.

THIS WEEK (Sept. 5)
DJIA 16987 -0.9%
S&P 500 1,985 - 1.1%
NYSE 10911 -1.5%
NASDAQ 4567 -0.3%
NASD 100 4069 -0.5%
Russ 2000 1160 -0.9%
DJTransprts 8552 -0.6%
DJ Utilities 550 -3.3%
XOI Oils 1,602 -4.0%
Gold bull. 1,230 -3.0%
GoldStcks 91.66 -3.8%
Canada 15531 -0.2%
London 6806 -0.7%
Germany 9651 -1.0%
France 4441 -1.0%
Hong Kong 24595 -2.6%
Japan 15948 +1.8%
Australia 5532 -1.2%
S. Korea 2041 -0.4%
India 27061 +0.1%
Indonesia 5143 -1.4%
Brazil 56999 -6.2%
Mexico 45799 -0.9%
China 2441 +0.3%
LAST WEEK (August  29)
DJIA 17,098 +0.6%
S&P 500 2003 + 0.8%
NYSE 11046 +0.9%
NASDAQ 4580 +0.9%
NASD 100 4082 +0.7%
Russ 2000 1174 +1.2%
DJTransprts 8408 -0.3%
DJ Utilities 564 +1.6%
XOI Oils 1,689 +2.0%
Gold bull. 1,287 +0.6%
GoldStcks 102.27 +2.8%
Canada 15625 +0.6%
London 6819 +0.7%
Germany 9470 +1.4%
France 4381 +3.0%
Hong Kong 24742 -1.5%
Japan 15424 -0.7%
Australia 5624 -0.3%
S. Korea 2068 +0.6%
India 26638 +0.8%
Indonesia 5136 -1.2%
Brazil 61244 +4.9%
Mexico 45628 +0.6%
China 2320 -1.1%
PREVIOUS WEEK (August 22)
DJIA 17,001 +2.0%
S&P 500 1988 + 1.7%
NYSE 10947 +1.4%
NASDAQ 4538 +1.7%
NASD 100 4052 +1.6%
Russ 2000 1160 +1.7%
DJTransprts 8429 +2.0%
DJ Utilities 555 +1.2%
XOI Oils 1,656 +0.9%
Gold bull. 1,280 -1.8%
GoldStcks 99.45 -2.5%
Canada 15535 +1.6%
London 6775 +1.3%
Germany 9339 +2.7%
France 4252 +1.9%
Hong Kong 25112 +0.6%
Japan 15539 +1.4%
Australia 5640 +1.5%
S. Korea 2056 -0.3%
India 26419 +1.2%
Indonesia 5198 +1.0%
Brazil 58407 +2.9%
Mexico 45374 +1.7%
China 2345 +0.6%

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NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be an active one for U.S. economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index, New Housing Starts, the Phila Fed Index, the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting ends, and Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Last Stand Approaching for Gold

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update (Stock market, gold, bonds) from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Did bears give up too soon?

Thursday, September 11, 9:25 a.m.

Quite a number of well-known managers and analysts who had been long-time bulls, turned bearish this year, calling for a serious market decline. Most targeted the second and third quarter as the likely timing.

With the third quarter now almost over, while most have remained bearish, George Soros for instance more than doubling his Put option bet against the S&P 500, some have capitulated, turning bullish or at least conceding the market could move higher yet.

But did they give up on their convictions too soon, perhaps pressured to do so by clients and customers becoming frustrated and bailing out on them?

Our short-term indicators, which correctly called for the June/July pullback, and then the August/Sept bounce-back rally off the oversold condition, are now calling for another short-term correction.

And of course more serious declines begin with a short-term move.

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Of course our intermediate-term and long-term indicators are of more importance to investors, but short-term traders should pay attention to charts like these.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (Stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A bounce-back day, but recovering less than half of the week’s decline. Light volume of less than 0.6  billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 54 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4% at 1,995, remaining below 2,000. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.6%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.4%.

Gold closed down $6 an ounce at $1,245 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

European Markets closed mixed and flat yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.1%. The German DAX closed down 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.1%. Belgium closed down 0.2%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.7%. Greece closed up 0.5%.  Ireland closed down 0.5%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Netherlands closed up 0.1%. Norway closed down 0.1%. Portugal closed down 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.55%

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed down 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.2%. Japan closed up 0.8%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.7%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 0.4%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down again this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.6%. The German DAX is down 0.6%. France’s CAC is down 0.7%. Belgium is down 0.3%. Denmark is up 0.5%. Finland is up 0.1%. Greece is down 0.2%. Ireland is up 0.5%. Italy is down 0.3%. Netherlands is down 0.4%. Norway is down 0.4%. Portugal is down 0.2%. Spain is down 0.9%. Switzerland is down 0.1%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $1.00 a barrel, at $90.67

Gold is down $1 an ounce at $1,244.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a very quiet week for U.S. economic reports, mostly just weekly unemployment claims, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed again in August, ticking up to 96.1, its second-highest level in 9 years, that is since the stock market top in October, 2007.

Yesterday’s report was that mortgage applications fell 7.2% last week. Applications for refinancing of existing mortgages fell 10.7%, while apps for home purchases fell 2.6%.

This morning’s only report is that new weekly unemployment claims were up 11,000 last week, to 315,000. The four-week m.a. was up by 750 to 304,000.

The pre-open indicators have been worsening all morning.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 70 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (Stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Investors and advisors are so very confident and bullish.

Tuesday, September 9, 9:25 a.m.

As I noted in Saturday’s blog, Barron’s reported that not even one of the market strategists it surveys each September expects the market to go down. 100% are bullish.

The Investors Intelligence Sentiment survey of investment letters, shows the smallest number of bears in 27 years. That’s lower than in 1999, 2007, lower than just before the S&P 500’s 19% plunge in 2011. Why, at just 13.3%, it’s the lowest since 1987, before the 1987 crash.

clip_image001

There’s nothing to be concerned about though.

You can know that from the emotional reactions in ‘Comment’ sections of websites, to anyone silly enough to suggest the high level of investor bullishness is a warning sign. “Idiots that are worried about anything as arcane as investor sentiment must be blind as well as dumb. Investors, newsletter writers, and advisors have been at extreme low levels of bearishness and concern since early last year, and the market just keeps going higher.”

They are so right.

That shows up not just in the Investors Intelligence chart, but in this chart of the VIX Index (aka the Fear Index). It measures the sentiment of options players.

It has been at its lowest level of fear (highest level of bullishness and confidence) since the 2007 market top for the last 19 months. And the market just keeps going higher. 

090914a

The sales pitch for Alibaba shares has begun. 

After amending its initial prospectus, China’s giant Alibaba Group is proceeding toward the launch of what will be the biggest stock market IPO in U.S. history in a couple of weeks.

At present the company expects to price the IPO at $60 to $66 a share. That would set the company’s initial value at $163 billion.

However, as with any IPO, the starting price is not based on value, but on how much its investment banks believe they can get investors to pay. That will be decided by how much excitement the company can create in its next step, a global roadshow to promote the stock to investors.

Analysts expect that if it can drum up enough investor enthusiasm with its multi-city marketing effort, it will price the shares above the initial range, and try for a valuation of more than $200 billion. That would rank it immediately in the 20 largest capitalization companies traded in the U.S.

The road show seems to be off to a great start. Reuters reported yesterday that hundreds of hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors lined up for the initial presentation at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in NY, and the line “snaked all the way down to the basement.”

The other excitement of the day is the launch of yet another iPhone update, the iPhone 6.

To subscribe to streetsmart click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an important ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update and hotline from last Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth Markets Report there for you tomorrow.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A mixed and mostly flat day on light volume of less than 0.6  billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 25 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, but at 2001, remained above 2,000. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.8%.

Gold closed down $11 an ounce at $1,255 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.6%.

European Markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.3%.

The London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.3%. Belgium closed down 0.4%. Denmark closed up 0.7%. Finland closed up 0.2%. Greece closed down 0.1%.  Ireland closed down 1.1%. Italy closed down 0.5%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed down 0.2%. Portugal closed down 0.4%. Spain closed down 0.4%. Switzerland closed up 0.3%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed up 0.1%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed down 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.9%. Japan closed up 0.1%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.3%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down again this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.4%. France’s CAC is down 0.3%. Belgium is down 0.4%. Denmark is up 0.7%. Finland is down 0.6%. Greece is down 1.5%. Ireland is down 0.2%. Italy is down 0.2%. Netherlands is down 0.3%. Norway is down 0.5%. Portugal is down 0.9%. Spain is down 0.8%. Switzerland is up 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.58 a barrel, at $93.24

Gold is unchanged at $1,254 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a very quiet week for U.S. economic reports, mostly just weekly unemployment claims, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on Monday.

This morning’s only report is that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed again in August, ticking up to 96.1, its second-highest level in 9 years, that is since the stock market top in October, 2007.

The pre-open indicators, previously fractionally positive, have turned negative.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 30 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an important ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update and hotline from last Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And there will be an in-depth Markets Report there for you tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

U.S. Market is still at important juncture.

Saturday, September 6, 12 noon.

The U.S. market pretty much marked time this week, going nowhere, fractionally negative for the week until yesterday’s bounce turned it fractionally positive going into the weekend.

A number of major indexes remained paused at potential overhead resistance.

Among them:

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Other Voices.

Financial Times: ‘US Jobs Growth Disappoints’. “The pace of US jobs growth slowed to a disappointing 142,000 in August. The report broke the six-month run of jobs growth above 200,000 and came in well below expectations of 230,000.

The weaker number may be just statistical noise [subject to revision]. But it is a reminder that the US labour market has never accelerated beyond mediocre during this recovery.”

Yahoo Finance: “The Alibaba Group disclosed on Friday that it hopes to raise as much as $21.1 billion in its long-awaited initial public offering, setting up expectations for the biggest stock market debut in United States history. In an amended prospectus, the Chinese Internet giant said it plans to price its shares between $60 and $66 in American depository shares. At the midpoint of that range, the company would be valued at nearly $156 billion. The disclosure of the price range and other important elements is the last step that Alibaba will take before it sets off on a whirlwind global roadshow to promote the stock to investors.”

James Cramer, CNBC: “Nobody is talking about it but the new supply [of stocks] has got me nervous. There’s a glut of new offerings [IPO’s] coming into the market, like Alibaba, the biggest. There isn’t enough new money coming into the market to absorb it all. That’s one of the oddities of this bull market. It doesn’t draw in new dollars. It just kind of putters along without any real fuel other than corporate buybacks and mergers and acquisitions.”

Cramer expects mutual fund managers who need exposure to those IPO’s, particularly Alibaba, will have to sell other stocks to raise cash for the purchases.

He said, “So I expect they will sell Apple, and Google, and Facebook and other previous winners to fund their Alibaba purchases.”

Barron’s: “It’s full steam ahead for U.S. stocks, say 10 Wall Street strategists surveyed by Barron’s.” 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ Report from Thursday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

U.S. market yesterday.

A positive day to prevent a negative week. The Dow was down as much as 40 points, and up as much as 67 points, and closed on its high. Volume was less than 0.6  billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 67 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.5%, and at 2007, a new high above 2000. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.2%.

Gold closed up $3 an ounce at $1,268 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.2%.

The China etf closed up 1.0%.

Asian markets mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.2%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed up 0.9%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed down 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed down 0.1%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.3%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.

European markets gave up early gains to close down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.4%.

The London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed down 0.2%. Belgium closed down 0.1%. Denmark closed down 0.6%. Finland closed down 0.3%. Greece closed up 1.3%. Ireland closed up 0.1%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed down 0.7%. Portugal closed unchanged. Spain closed up 0.4%. Switzerland closed down 0.5%.

Global markets for the week. 

Last day rally saved U.S. market from negative week but just barely. Biggest loser was gold stocks. Biggest winner was China. Europe continued to bounce back.

THIS WEEK (Sept. 5)
DJIA 17,137 +0.2%
S&P 500 2007 + 0.2%
NYSE 11073 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4582 +0.1%
NASD 100 4089 +0.2%
Russ 2000 1170 -0.3%
DJTransprts 8601 +2.3%
DJ Utilities 568 +0.7%
XOI Oils 1,669 -1.2%
Gold bull. 1,268 -1.5%
GoldStcks 95.30 -6.8%
Canada 15569 -0.4%
London 6855 +0.5%
Germany 9747 +2.9%
France 4486 +2.4%
Hong Kong 25240 +2.0%
Japan 15668 +1.6%
Australia 5598 -0.5%
S. Korea 2049 -0.9%
India 27026 +1.5%
Indonesia 5217 +1.6%
Brazil 60760 -0.8%
Mexico 46231 +1.3%
China 2435 +5.0%
LAST WEEK (August  29)
DJIA 17,098 +0.6%
S&P 500 2003 + 0.8%
NYSE 11046 +0.9%
NASDAQ 4580 +0.9%
NASD 100 4082 +0.7%
Russ 2000 1174 +1.2%
DJTransprts 8408 -0.3%
DJ Utilities 564 +1.6%
XOI Oils 1,689 +2.0%
Gold bull. 1,287 +0.6%
GoldStcks 102.27 +2.8%
Canada 15625 +0.6%
London 6819 +0.7%
Germany 9470 +1.4%
France 4381 +3.0%
Hong Kong 24742 -1.5%
Japan 15424 -0.7%
Australia 5624 -0.3%
S. Korea 2068 +0.6%
India 26638 +0.8%
Indonesia 5136 -1.2%
Brazil 61244 +4.9%
Mexico 45628 +0.6%
China 2320 -1.1%
PREVIOUS WEEK (August 22)
DJIA 17,001 +2.0%
S&P 500 1988 + 1.7%
NYSE 10947 +1.4%
NASDAQ 4538 +1.7%
NASD 100 4052 +1.6%
Russ 2000 1160 +1.7%
DJTransprts 8429 +2.0%
DJ Utilities 555 +1.2%
XOI Oils 1,656 +0.9%
Gold bull. 1,280 -1.8%
GoldStcks 99.45 -2.5%
Canada 15535 +1.6%
London 6775 +1.3%
Germany 9339 +2.7%
France 4252 +1.9%
Hong Kong 25112 +0.6%
Japan 15539 +1.4%
Australia 5640 +1.5%
S. Korea 2056 -0.3%
India 26419 +1.2%
Indonesia 5198 +1.0%
Brazil 58407 +2.9%
Mexico 45374 +1.7%
China 2345 +0.6%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a very quiet week for U.S. economic reports, mostly just weekly unemployment claims, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Why a Market Correction Now Would be the Best Scenario

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ Report from Thursday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

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