U.S. Treasury Bonds Still Looking Toppy!
Thursday, January 26, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
That bonds did not react positively to the Fed’s statement yesterday that it will be holding interest rates low for even longer than it had previously been indicating, was yet another sign that U.S. treasury bonds have been topping out.
They also did not react when talks on the Greek debt crisis failed several times in recent weeks, apparently having more than factored in the potential negatives from the eurozone crisis, leaving them vulnerable to any improvement at all in the outlook.
Global Market Gains Have Been Impressive!
The eurozone fears that kept many out of the market after the October low, sure that catastrophe was right around the corner, and then the many forecasts that last summer’s correction was the beginning of the next bear market, which would be proven when the rally failed at 200-day moving averages, have been fading away.
This week’s AAII investor sentiment poll, released last night, showed the reversal since the high level of fear and bearishness at the October low and for some weeks thereafter.
It showed the percentage of bullishness this week at 48.4% while those bearish fell by 4.7 to just 18.9%.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’ Click here.
Subscribers to Street Smart Report: The mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update is in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website, from yesterday. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there later today.
Yesterday in the U.S. Market.
The market closed positive and at new highs for the rally.
The Dow closed up 81 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.7%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.9%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.6%.
Gold surged up $40 an ounce, closing at $1,707 an ounce.
Oil closed up $.79 a barrel at $99.74 a barrel.
The U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed down 0.5%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down another 0.2%.
Yesterday in European Markets.
Markets in Europe closed mixed yesterday. The London FTSE closed down 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France closed down 0.3%.
Asian Markets Except Japan Closed up Last Night.
The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed up 0.9%.
Among individual markets:
Australia closed up 1.0%. China closed up 1.0%. Hong Kong closed up 1.6%. India closed up 0.5%. Indonesia closed up 0.5%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 1.2%.
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In the Premium Content area this morning: U.S. market, & Gold.
Markets This Morning.
European markets are up strongly this morning. The London FTSE is up 1.4%. Germany’s DAX is up 1.7%. France’s CAC is up 1.5%
Oil is up $1.43 a barrel at $100.83.
Gold is up $16 an ounce at $1,723 an ounce.
This morning in the U.S. Market:
This is a fairly heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and another revision to 4th quarter GDP growth. To see the full list click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
There were no reports Monday or Tuesday.
Yesterday’s reports were a mix of positive and negative. The FHFA reported home prices rose 1% in November, and year over year were down only 1.8%. But the NAR reported that Pending Home Sales declined 3.5% in December – but that was after they hit a 19-month high in November.
This morning’s reports so far are that new weekly unemployment claims increased by 21,000 last week to 377,000, about in line with the consensus estimate. The four-week m.a. fell slightly by 2,500 to 377,500. And Durable Goods Orders were up 3.0% in December, the 3rd straight monthly increase, and better than the consensus forecast of an increase of 2.4%.
Still to come are New Home Sales, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 60 points or so in the early going.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’ Click here.
Subscribers to Street Smart Report: The mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update is in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website, from yesterday. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there later today.
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I’ll be back Saturday morning with the regular Saturday morning post, as usual later than the week day posts, probably around 11 a.m. eastern time. (This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!).
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