Will short-term market patterns continue to work out?

Tuesday, April 15, 9:25 a.m.

In Saturday’s post I noted that if the short-term patterns are to continue to work, this week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

And that the Nasdaq which has been leading the way down, is probably oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a. to produce an oversold bounce. That in turn could lead the market back up to produce a positive week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going.

So far, that happened yesterday. And the Nasdaq remains oversold short-term.

But the U.S. market is still looking precarious and iffy on intermediate-term charts.

041514e

Europe’s major markets are also looking precarious.

041514f

041514g

 

Good News on Retail Sales – But.

Retail sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised up from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

It seems to confirm that the winter’s problems were most likely weather related.

While that kept retail sales positive for the 1st quarter with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, it did not change the picture of sales being in a slowing trend since 2011.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog. An in-depth Markets Update will be in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A positive day as expected, with a triple-digit gain by the Dow. Volume almost 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 146 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.6%.

Gold closed up $9 an ounce at $1,327.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.3%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.1%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.9%. Finland closed down 0.9%. Greece close down 3.4%. Ireland closed down 0.9%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%. Norway closed up 0.8%. Portugal closed down 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.2%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed down 1.4%. Hong Kong closed down 1.6%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.6%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed up 1.0%. Taiwan closed up 0.7%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed to down some this morning.

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.2%. Denmark is down 0.2%. Finland is down 0.3%. Greece is down 1.0%. Ireland is down 0.3%. Italy is down 0.7%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.5%. Portugal is down 0.3%. Spain is up 0.4%. Switzerland is up 0.2%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.43 a barrel, at $103.62

Gold is down $32 an ounce at $1,296.

Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s report was that Retail Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

This morning’s reports so far are that the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% in March. The core rate was also up 0.2%. The consensus forecast was for both to be up only 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell sharply, from 5.6 in march to 1.3 in April.

Still to come is the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of home-builders. It will be released at 10 a.m.

The reports have had little effect on the pre-open indicators.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

And also if you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Are the market’s short-term patterns important for next week?

Saturday, April 12, 12:30 a.m.

The stock market has a history of short-term pattern tendencies that have been particularly noticeable in recent weeks.

If it continues it could tell us something about next week.

  • The ‘monthly strength period’ consists of the last two trading days of each month through the first four trading days of the following month. It has a strong tendency to be positive.
  • End of-quarter ‘window dressing’ usually produces a two or three day rally at the end of each quarter.
  • As readers know, I refer to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report as ‘The Big One’ because it most often results in a one to three-day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other.
  • The other side of the jobs report pattern is that whatever is the direction of that initial kneejerk reaction to the jobs report is usually reversed over the subsequent few days.
  • A lesser pattern, not quite as persistent, is that the week before the monthly options expirations week tends to be negative, while the week of the expirations tends to be positive.
    How have those patterns worked out lately?

The ‘monthly strength period’ at the end of March, combined with the end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’, produced a 223 point gain by the Dow from March 26 through April 6.

The market then responded to the Labor Department’s Jobs Report with a two-day triple-digit plunge, 159 points on the Friday of the report, and down another 166 points on Monday.

It then put in a valiant attempt this week to follow the rest of that pattern by reversing over the next couple of days. The Dow was up 10 points on Tuesday and 181 points on Wednesday (in reaction to the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting).

The next pattern to fall in place was the tendency for the week before options expirations week, which this past week was, to be negative.

To accomplish that, the Dow would have to overcome that big 181 point gain on Wednesday, which had it up for the week.

And sure enough, it plunged in triple-digit declines of 266 points on Thursday, and 143 points yesterday, to close down 2.4% for the week.

If the short-term patterns are to continue to work as precisely, next week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

As we all know, considerable damage was done to the market this week, the Nasdaq leading the way down.

041214e

But is it possible the Nasdaq is oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a., to produce an oversold bounce, that in turn would lead the market back up to produce a positive week next week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going?

If so, should it be used as an opportunity to sell?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A second straight triple-digit negative close, and no attempt to halt it going into the weekend, with the market closing on its low, and volume jumping up to 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed down 143 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.2%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.9%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed down $2 an ounce to $1,318, but up $15 an ounce for the week.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.8%.

Asian markets closed down in their last session of the week.

Asian markets closed down Thursday night (Friday in the U.S.), but mixed for the week. 

Among individual markets Thursday night:

Australia closed down 1.0%. China closed down 0.2%. Hong Kong closed down 0.8%. India closed down 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 1.0%. Japan closed down 2.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.6%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.5%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

European markets plunged again yesterday:

The Europe Dow closed down 1.2%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.2%. The German DAX closed down 1.5%. France’s CAC closed down 1.1%. Belgium closed down 1.0%. Greece closed down 2.6%. Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 1.1%. The Netherlands closed down 1.6%. Norway closed down 1.9%. Portugal closed down 1.3%. Spain closed down 1.3%. Switzerland closed down 1.5%.

Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (April 11)
DJIA 16026 - 2.4%
S&P 500 1815 - 2.7%
NYSE 10280 - 2.3%
NASDAQ 3999 - 3.1%
NASD 100 3446 - 2.6%
Russ 2000 1111 - 3.6%
DJTransprts 7362 - 2.8%
DJ Utilities 534 + 0.5%
XOI Oils 1,519 - 1.8%
Gold bull. 1,318 + 1.2%
GoldStcks 92.55 - 0.8%
Canada 14257 - 0.9%
London 6561 - 2.0%
Germany 9315 - 3.9%
France 4365 - 2.7%
Hong Kong 23003 + 2.2%
Japan 13960 - 7.3%
Australia 5423 - 0.1%
S. Korea 1997 + 0.5%
India 22628 + 1.2%
Indonesia 4816 - 0.8%
Brazil 51822 + 1.5%
Mexico 40377 - 0.5%
China 2230 + 3.5%
LAST WEEK (April 4)
DJIA 16412 + 0.6%
S&P 500 1865 + 0.4%
NYSE 10517 + 0.8%
NASDAQ 4127 - 0.7%
NASD 100 3539 - 0.9%
Russ 2000 1153 + 0.2%
DJTransprts 7570 + 1.6%
DJ Utilities 531 + 0.9%
XOI Oils 1,546 +2.5%
Gold bull. 1,303 + 0.8%
GoldStcks 93.30 - 0.1%
Canada 14393 + 0.9%
London 6695 + 1.2%
Germany 9695 + 1.1%
France 4484 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22510 + 2.0%
Japan 15063 + 2.5%
Australia 5428 + 1.0%
S. Korea 1988 + 0.4%
India 22359 + 0.1%
Indonesia 4857 + 1.9%
Brazil 51063 + 2.6%
Mexico 40598 + 1.4%
China 2155 + 0.8%
PREVIOUS WEEK (March 28)
DJIA 16323 + 0.1%
S&P 500 1857 - 0.5%
NYSE 10434 + 0.4%
NASDAQ 4155 - 2.8%
NASD 100 3571 - 2.2%
Russ 2000 1151 - 3.5%
DJTransprts 7451 - 0.9%
DJ Utilities 527 + 1.0%
XOI Oils 1,509 +2.2%
Gold bull. 1,293 - 2.9%
GoldStcks 93.36 - 5.2%
Canada 14260 - 0.5%
London 6615 + 0.9%
Germany 9587 + 2.6%
France 4411 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22065 + 2.9%
Japan 14696 + 3.3%
Australia 5376 + 0.4%
S. Korea 1981 + 2.4%
India 22339 + 2.7%
Indonesia 4768 + 1.4%
Brazil 49768 + 5.0%
Mexico 40048 + 0.1%
China 2137 - 0.3%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

 

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Are Safe Havens Providing a Warning on Stocks?

Thursday, April 9, 9:25 a.m.

So far the stock market has gone nowhere in 2014, the Dow down 0.8%, the S&P 500 up just 1.2%, and the Nasdaq up only 0.2% for the year so far.

041014e

However, the safe havens of bonds and gold have moved the other way. Even after its pullback in March, gold is still up 9.7% for the year so far.

 041014d

It’s a similar situation with U.S. Treasury bonds.

Like gold, bonds hit a new low at year-end, exactly as the stock market reached its record high. And like gold, bonds have been rallying since.

The 20-year bond etf TLT, is up 7% year-to date.

041014d

Gold and bonds were moving opposite to the stock market right up to year-end. They reached a new low exactly as the stock market reached a new high. They continued to move opposite to stocks by rallying in January as the stock market sold off in its January correction.

Does the fact that they have held their January gains and moved higher, even as the stock market returned to its year-end high, indicate that the safe havens are warning that stocks will be in trouble going forward?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Markets Update’, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term from yesterday in in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website And an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Tuesday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A big rally, the Dow gaining 181 points, in reaction to the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. Volume at 0.68 billion shares on the up-day was less than the more than 0.8 billion shares on the big down days on Friday and Monday.

The Dow closed up 181 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.2%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,306.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.4%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.5%.

European Markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.4%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 1.2%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece close down 0.5%. Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed up 0.2%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%.  Norway closed up 1.0%. Portugal closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed up 1.4%. Hong Kong closed up 1.5%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed down 3.2%. Japan closed unchanged. Malaysia closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.5%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.6%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are up this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.4%. The German DAX is up 0.3%. France’s CAC is up 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.1%. Denmark is down 0.1%. Finland is up 0.1%. Greece is down 0.1%. Ireland is up 0.6%. Italy is down 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.2%. Norway is up 0.1%. Portugal is up 0.1%. Spain is down 0.5%. Switzerland is up 0.4%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.30 a barrel, at $103.30

Gold is up $12 an ounce at $1,318.

Economic Reports:

This week has almost no important reports, but they do include the Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was the Small Business Optimism Index, which ticked up from 91.4 in February to 93.4 in March, but remained below its January level.

Yesterday’s only ‘report’ was the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, which caused a sizable spike-up in the market.

This morning’s only report is that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 32,000 last week to 300,000, a seven-year low. The four-week moving average fell by 4,750 to 316,250, its second lowest level since the end of the recession in 2009. 

The report had no impact on the pre-open indicators, which have been hovering around flat to down fractionally. 

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 10 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the weekdays, probably around 12 noon.

To read my newspaper column from last weekend click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Markets Update’, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term from yesterday in in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website And an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Tuesday.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Time For Another Short-Term Market Bounce?

Tuesday, April 8, 9:25 a.m.

So far in 2014 the market has gone nowhere in either direction. So the neutral outlook of our intermediate-term indicators since February has been fairly correct.

The market was down in January but recovered in February. It experienced up and down volatility in March but moved only sideways. And the going nowhere market continues as we enter the 2nd week of the 2nd quarter.

Year to date: Dow: –2.0%    S&P 500: unchanged   Nasdaq: –2.3%

Short-term.

The ‘monthly strength period’ and end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’ came and went on schedule and produced their typical brief rally.

Then the market responded to Friday’s monthly jobs report in the typical fashion we told you to expect, a triple-digit one to three-day move by the Dow, this time to the downside.

The volatility in both directions did nothing to improve the cautionary look in the short-term charts. The end of month bump last week came at a timely point, just in time to prevent the trendline support from giving way.

However, now the two straight down days, Friday and yesterday, did close the S&P 500 just below its 50-day m.a. and the trendline support yesterday. But no real damage done.

040814d

With the sell-off continuing in the previously high-flying tech stocks, the Nasdaq’s short-term chart is looking particularly ugly.

040814e

However, it is short-term oversold beneath its 50-day m.a., and the short-term indicators have reached their short-term oversold zones.

Time for another short-term bounce?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A second straight triple-digit decline by the Dow, and on increased volume again of 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 166 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.9%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.4%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,299.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.6%.

European Markets also plunged quite sharply yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 1.0%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.1%. The German DAX closed down 1.9%. France’s CAC closed down 1.1%. Belgium closed down 0.7%. Denmark closed down 1.6%. Finland closed down 1.4%. Greece close down 0.5%. Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 0.8%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%.  Norway closed down 1.4%. Portugal closed down 0.7%. Spain closed down 0.7%. Switzerland closed down 1.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed up 1.9%. Hong Kong closed up 1.0%. India closed down 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed down 1.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.4%. New Zealand closed down 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.9%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are down again this morning.

The London FTSE is down 1.0%. The German DAX is down 0.9%. France’s CAC is down 0.9%. Belgium is down 1.2%. Denmark is down 1.4%. Finland is down 0.6%. Greece is down 1.1%. Ireland is down 2.0%. Italy is down 1.7%. Netherlands is down 0.8%. Norway is down 0.7%. Portugal is down 2.3%. Spain is down 1.6%. Switzerland is down 0.1%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.86 a barrel, at $101.30

Gold is up $12 an ounce at $1,311.

Economic Reports:

This week will see almost no important reports, but they will include the Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only report is the Small Business Optimism Index, which ticked up from 91.4 in February to 93.4 in March, but remained below its January level.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 10 points or so at the open.

I’ll be back with the next post Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Market breakout cancelled or just delayed?

Saturday, April 5, 11:45 a.m.

In Thursday’s post I noted that the S&P 500 had closed at a fractional new high on Wednesday, and Dow Theory followers were looking for the DJ Transportation Avg. and DJ Industrials to break out to new highs together, as a confirmation of an important upside breakout by the overall market.

It looked promising in the early going yesterday, when the Dow was up 60 points in its initial reaction to the jobs report. But it soon rolled over in a sell-off that closed it down 159 points, actually an ugly downside reversal day.

So was the ‘breakout’ by the S&P a breakout, or another failure at a short-term triple-top, as occurred from the December top? 

040514e

And did the failure of the Dow Industrials to break out constitute a non-confirmation of the breakout by the Transportation Average, which would be a negative by most Dow Theorist interpretations. Or was its breakout just delayed by a kneejerk jobs report reaction?

040514c

Was the spike down by the Nasdaq to a three-month low, below its level at the end of last year, a sign that the previous market leader on the upside, is now leading on the downside?

040514f

For the moment the hoped for break out by the blue chips to new highs has been at least delayed. But all in all, no real damage has been done.

However, it does illustrate how quickly things can change, and the risk as we near the end of the market’s favorable season this year, and does have us watching our intermediate and longer-term indicators closely.

There are very few important economic reports scheduled to be released next week, which will leave the market free to contemplate the first quarter earnings reports that will begin trickling in, as well as anticipating GDP growth for the first quarter, which will be reported on April 30.

Other Voices:

Patti Domm, CNBC: “After Friday’s momentum meltdown, traders are watching to see if once high-flying Internet, social media and biotech names can stabilize in the week ahead or whether they will ensnare the broader market in a bigger downdraft.”

James Paulson, Wells Capital Management: “When it broke the upward tilt in the S&P, most of the S&P held together except for tech. My feeling is next week we get some buyers looking at these values that were created by the selloff. . . . . I think it’s going to bring in some buyers next week, and we’re going to focus on the fact that the economic momentum is still here.”

Joshua Brown, editor The Reformed Broker: "Oh man. Rough week. All the momentum favorites have been hammered, good companies thrown out with bad ones. . . . . names like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Yelp have been absolutely pummeled. . . . . A fun fact – the biotech sector was up 21% year-to-date in the middle of February and as of yesterday it’s negative on the year. . . . . One thing that will probably not work is to just assume that everything will be back to where it was once the storm passes. Markets don’t work that way. Traders fall out of love with some stocks and become enamored with others; stories and narratives fall apart; Institutional investors become satiated and unwilling to eat any more of a particular cuisine, regardless of fundamentals.”

Did gold find support at its 30-week m.a.?

Gold had been rallying off a double-bottom so far this year until extra volatility struck, with an additional spike up in reaction to the Russia/Ukraine war worry, and then a spike down after the war scare went away.

The short-term downside momentum continued for two more weeks.

But did gold find support this week at its important 30-week m.a.?

040514k

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you make more profits and just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A typical triple-digit Dow reaction to the monthly jobs report, this one to the downside. The Dow closed down 159 points, or 1.0%. But the rest of the market was much more negative. Volume jumped to almost 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE, more than 2.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed down 159 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.3%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.7%. The Russell 2000 closed down 2.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.4%.

Gold surged up $18 an ounce to $1,303 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.7%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

Asian markets closed mixed Thursday night (Friday in the U.S.), but up for the week. 

Among individual markets Thursday night:

Australia closed up 0.2%. China closed up 0.7%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed down 0.7%. Indonesia closed down 0.7%. Japan closed down 0.1%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

European markets closed up yesterday:

The Europe Dow closed up 0.5%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.8%. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Greece closed down 0.6%. Ireland closed up 1.0%. Italy closed up 0.8%. The Netherlands closed up 0.4%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed down 0.6%. Spain closed up 0.9%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (April 4)
DJIA 16412 + 0.6%
S&P 500 1865 + 0.4%
NYSE 10517 + 0.8%
NASDAQ 4127 - 0.7%
NASD 100 3539 - 0.9%
Russ 2000 1153 + 0.2%
DJTransprts 7570 + 1.6%
DJ Utilities 531 + 0.9%
XOI Oils 1,546 +2.5%
Gold bull. 1,303 + 0.8%
GoldStcks 93.30 - 0.1%
Canada 14393 + 0.9%
London 6695 + 1.2%
Germany 9695 + 1.1%
France 4484 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22510 + 2.0%
Japan 15063 + 2.5%
Australia 5428 + 1.0%
S. Korea 1988 + 0.4%
India 22359 + 0.1%
Indonesia 4857 + 1.9%
Brazil 51063 + 2.6%
Mexico 40598 + 1.4%
China 2155 + 0.8%
LAST WEEK (March 28)
DJIA 16323 + 0.1%
S&P 500 1857 - 0.5%
NYSE 10434 + 0.4%
NASDAQ 4155 - 2.8%
NASD 100 3571 - 2.2%
Russ 2000 1151 - 3.5%
DJTransprts 7451 - 0.9%
DJ Utilities 527 + 1.0%
XOI Oils 1,509 +2.2%
Gold bull. 1,293 - 2.9%
GoldStcks 93.36 - 5.2%
Canada 14260 - 0.5%
London 6615 + 0.9%
Germany 9587 + 2.6%
France 4411 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22065 + 2.9%
Japan 14696 + 3.3%
Australia 5376 + 0.4%
S. Korea 1981 + 2.4%
India 22339 + 2.7%
Indonesia 4768 + 1.4%
Brazil 49768 + 5.0%
Mexico 40048 + 0.1%
China 2137 - 0.3%
PREVIOUS WEEK (March 21)
DJIA 16302 + 1.5%
S&P 500 1866 + 1.4%
NYSE 10392 + 1.0%
NASDAQ 4276 + 0.7%
NASD 100 3653 + 0.7%
Russ 2000 1193 + 1.0%
DJTransprts 7515 + 0.5%
DJ Utilities 522 - 0.1%
XOI Oils 1,477 + 0.5%
Gold bull. 1,332 - 3.6%
GoldStcks 98.51 - 7.2%
Canada 14335 + 0.8%
London 6557 + 0.5%
Germany 9342 + 3.2%
France 4335 + 2.8%
Hong Kong 21436 - 0.5%
Japan 14224 - 0.7%
Australia 5354 + 0.1%
S. Korea 1934 + 0.8%
India 21753 - 0.3%
Indonesia 4700 - 3.7%
Brazil 47380 + 5.4%
Mexico 40021 + 5.5%
China 2143 + 2.1%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

This past week’s economic reports:

Monday reports were that the Chicago PMI Index, fell from 59.8 in February to 55.9 in March, its lowest level since last August. The consensus forecast was for an improvement to 60.0. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index improved to 4.9 in March from 0.3 in February, better than the consensus forecast of 3.0.

Tuesday’s reports were that the ISM Mfg Index ticked up from 53.2 in February to 53.7 in March, just missing the consensus forecast of 53.9. And Construction Spending ticked up 0.1% in February, better than the consensus forecast for a decline of 0.1%. On Auto sales, Chrysler reported its sales were up 13% in March, thanks to a 47% surge in Jeep sales in the snowy, cold winter weather, Ford’s sales were up 3%. General Motors sales were also up 3.0%.

Wednesday’s reports were the ADP Jobs Report, which showed that 191,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in March, and the previously reported 139,000 new jobs in February was revised up to 178,000. And Factory Orders were up 1.6% in February, better than the consensus forecast of 1.3%. But that was only due to January’s numbers being revised down from a 0.7% decline to a 1.0% decline.

Thursday’s reports were that the U.S. Trade Deficit widened by 7.7% in February to a five-month high at $42.3 billion, as exports fell and imports rose. It was worse than the consensus forecast for only a slight increase to $39.7 billion. And new weekly unemployment claims increased by 16,000 to 326,000. The more important four-week m.a. ticked up 250 to 319,500. And the ISM non-mfg Index, improved from 51.6 in February to 53.1 in March.

Friday’s report was the Labor Department’s employment report for March. It showed that 192,000 new jobs were created in March, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. That was slightly below the consensus forecast of 200,000 jobs. But numbers for February were revised up from the previously reported 175,000 to 197,000, and the numbers for January were revised up from 129,000 to 144,000. 

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will see almost no important reports, but they will include the Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website And the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you make more profits and just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Login