Were inflation concerns overblown?

Thursday, August 21, 9:25 a.m.

Concerns were spiking a couple of months ago that the Fed’s easy money policies, and the recovering economy, finally had inflation showing up. The PPI, CPI, and PCE inflation indexes jumped above the Fed’s comfort level of 2%, while the employment cost index also unexpectedly jumped in the 2nd quarter.

In the background commodity prices were rising, crude oil back above $100 a barrel. And the historic hedge against inflation, gold, was rallying again.

However, last week it was reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was up 2.1% in April, 2.0% in May, and 1.9% in June, was up only 0.1% in July.

And yesterday, it was reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was up 2.1% in June, was up only 0.1% in July.

Was it just a one month reprieve?

Perhaps not, at least based on the the way crude oil prices and gold have given up their rally attempts.

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New Housing Starts – the longer-term picture. 

Housing starts created some excitement this week, jumping 15.7% in July to an annual rate of 1.09 million from 945,000 in June, better than the consensus forecast of 975,000.

They’re not quite as exciting when looked at from a longer-term view, better than they were at the worst of the financial meltdown, but still depressed, well below their level of 15 years ago, about where they were in early 2008.

Historical Data Chart

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A mixed day, positive for the blue chips, negative for small stocks. Not many participants, with barely over 0.5 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 59 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed unchanged. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.2%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,292.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.2%.

The China etf GXC closed down 0.4%.

European Markets mostly closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.3%.

The London FTSE closed down 0.4%. The German DAX closed down 0.2%. France’s CAC closed down 0.3%. Belgium closed down 0.6%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed up 0.6%. Greece closed up 1.0%.  Ireland closed down 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.2%. Netherlands closed unchanged. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed down 0.1%. Spain closed up 0.3%. Switzerland closed up 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.3%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed down 0.4%. Hong Kong closed down 0.7%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.9%. Malaysia closed down 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed down 1.4%. Singapore closed unchanged. Taiwan closed down 0.4%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are off earlier highs but up this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.5%.

The London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is up 0.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.8%. Belgium is up 0.4%. Denmark is down 0.4%. Finland is up 0.5%. Greece is up 1.5%. Ireland is up 0.7%. Italy is up 1.5%. Netherlands is up 0.3%. Norway is up 0.1%. Portugal is unchanged. Spain is up 1.0%. Switzerland is up 0.6%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.10 a barrel, at $93.40

Gold is plunging $19 an ounce at $1,276.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week’s reports include the first look at the housing industry in a while, and include: the Housing Market Index, New Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Consumer Price Index, minutes of the last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s report was that the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of Home-Builders, improved from 53 in July to 55 in August, indicating 55% of home-builders are now optimistic, the second straight month with more than 50% optimistic. That is the index’s highest level in 7 months.

Tuesday’s reports were that the Consumer Price Index remained benign in July, rising only 0.1%, with the core rate also up just 0.1%. And we got good news from the housing industry for the first time in a long while. New Housing Starts jumped 15.7% in July to an annual rate of 1.09 million from 945,000 in June, better than the consensus forecast of 975,000. And permits for future starts rose 8.1% to an annual rate of 1.05 million.

Yesterday’s only report was the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, which indicated the Fed may be closer than previously thought to beginning to raise interest rates, and that they are working on the details of how to go about doing that without raising too much alarm in markets.

This morning’s report so far is that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 14,000 last week to 298,000, about in line with expectations. The four-week moving average rose by 4,750 to 300,750.

Still to come are the PMI Mfg Index at 9:45 am, and the Phila Fed Index, Existing Home Sales, and Leading Economic Indicators, at 10 a.m.

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier highs as PMI Mfg reports from Euro-zone disappointed again.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 20 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Rally in European markets finally showed up.

Tuesday, August 19, 9:25 a.m.

I’ve been pointing out for a couple of weeks that European markets, which topped out in June, had become very oversold short-term, which should produce a significant short-term rally.

But it just wasn’t happening. Every time a rally seemed to begin it was hit with another negative economic report, or a flare-up in the Russia/Ukraine situation.

However, at last it has had a couple of days without economic  reports, and news that the Russia/Ukraine situation has cooled off. And European markets have taken advantage of the situation .

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I said that the quality of the first rally attempt after such a plunge would probably be important. Would they be able to rally back above their 50-day moving averages and see the m.a.’s become support again? Or would the moving averages now be overhead resistance on rally attempts as the downturn continues?

Of course it’s too early to tell.

But there is reason for concern given that some of Europe’s major markets already experienced their first rally attempts and the 50-day m.a. was overhead resistance.

081914i

 

081914j

So we shall see. 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow. 

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A very positive day, with the market closing on its high. Volume was average with just under 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 175 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed down $6 an ounce at $1,299.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 1.0%.

The China etf GXC closed up 0.7%.

European Markets rallied sharply off their oversold condition yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.0%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.8%. The German DAX closed up 1.7%. France’s CAC closed up 1.4%. Belgium closed up 1.3%. Denmark closed up 1.2%. Finland closed up 0.9%. Greece plunged 2.5%.  Ireland closed up 0.9%. Italy closed up 0.8%. Netherlands closed up 1.1%. Norway closed up 0.1%. Portugal closed up 2.4%. Spain closed up 1.3%. Switzerland closed up 1.0%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.7%. China closed up 0.3%. Hong Kong closed up 0.7%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed up 0.8%. Malaysia closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.9%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 1.1%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up again this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.2%.

The London FTSE is up 0.5%. The German DAX is up 1.0%. France’s CAC is up 0.4%. Belgium is up 0.6%. Denmark is up 1.0%. Finland is up 1.0%. Greece is up 0.6%. Ireland is up 0.3%. Italy is up 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.7%. Norway is down 0.1%. Portugal is up 0.3%. Spain is up 0.3%. Switzerland is up 0.6%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.44 a barrel, at $95.97

Gold is up $1 an ounce at $1,300.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week’s reports include the first look at the housing industry in a while, and include: the Housing Market Index, New Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Consumer Price Index, minutes of the last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s report was that the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of Home-Builders, improved from 53 in July to 55 in August, indicating 55% of home-builders are now optimistic, the second straight month with more than 50% optimistic. That is the index’s highest level in 7 months.

This morning’s reports are that the Consumer Price Index remained benign in July, rising only 0.1%, with the core rate also up just 0.1%. And we got good news from the housing industry for the first time in a long while. New Housing Starts jumped 15.7% in July to an annual rate of 1.09 million from 945,000 in June, better than the consensus forecast of 975,000. And permits for future starts rose 8.1% to an annual rate of 1.05 million.

The pre-open indicators, already somewhat positive, picked up more after the reports.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 70 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow. 

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Europe is being repeatedly hit when it’s already down.

Saturday, August 16, 12 noon.

Tracking with the signals of our short-term technical indicators, European markets topped out in June. The U.S. market topped out into a less severe short-term pullback in July.

Two weeks ago I said they were both oversold beneath their short-term 50-day moving averages to a degree that should bring at least a rally off the short-term oversold condition.

081614l

While that rally is taking place in the U.S. market, Europe’s markets have not been able to get any traction. Every time they get off the floor onto their knees they are hit with more bad news that knocks them down again.

This week it was the reports that the economic recovery in the euro-zone ground to a halt in the 2nd quarter, led by a surprising plunge by Germany’s economy to negative GDP.

However, yesterday morning, European markets tried again to rally off the oversold condition. The German DAX was up 100 points, when the news came that a Russian military convoy had crossed Ukraine’s border and had reportedly been destroyed by Ukraine military forces.

The DAX turned tail and dropped more than 230 points to close down 132 points on the day.

However, regardless of whether this is the beginning of something worse or not, our-short-term indicators are saying the oversold condition should bring at least a rally back up to test the potential resistance at the 50-day m.a.

That expected oversold rally is underway in the U.S. market. 

081614f

 

Other voices – Lots of choices – from one extreme to the other:

From Barron’s: Stephen Auth, chief investment officer, Federated Investors:  “I call the economy "Goldilocks cubed" because we have what actually may be an accelerating economy, with the Fed and Treasury rates well-behaved and perceptions about risk declining. Market valuations depend on growth, bond rates, and perceptions of risk, and all three of those are going in the direction that actually expands the price/earnings multiple. At the same time, earnings are expanding, and that’s a recipe for another leg up in the market.”

Business Insider Australia:It seems legendary hedge fund billionaire George Soros might be souring further in his outlook for U.S. stocks, based on his most recent SEC 13-F filing in the U.S. It showed a 605% increase in his short S&P 500 position (through put options on 11.29 million shares of SPDR S&P 500 ETF) to $2.2 billion . . . . a whopping 16.65% of the total assets in his Soros Funds Management Portfolio.”

Market Watch, Paul B. Farrell: Sometime after the Great Crash of 2016, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be testifying before Congress, just like Alan Greenspan was forced to do in 2008. She will be explaining why America has already had three mega-crashes in the 21st Century, each draining roughly $10 trillion, each a direct result of Federal Reserve policy failures. She will be forced to explain why the Great Crash of 2016 was a clone of the bank credit crash of 2008 and the 2000 excesses.”

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update (Stock market, bonds, gold) from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

U.S. market yesterday.

A mixed day, well off lows and well off highs. The Dow was up as much as 65 points, then down as much as 138, but recovered to close down only 50 points. Volume picked up to 0.75 shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 50 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 also closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed unchanged. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.5%.

Gold closed down $10 an ounce at $1,305 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 1.1%.

The China etf closed up 0.1%.

Asian markets mostly closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.4%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed up 0.9%. Hong Kong closed up 0.6%. India closed up 0.7%. Indonesia closed down 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.1%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.6%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.

European markets closed down yesterday.

The London FTSE closed up 0.1%. The German DAX closed down 1.4%. France’s CAC closed down 0.9%. Belgium closed down 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.4%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece closed up 0.7%. Ireland closed up 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.3%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed up 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.7%. Switzerland closed down 0.8%.

Global markets for the week. 

A nice bounce-back from the oversold condition, but nowhere near as pronounced in European markets as the week’s rally indicates. 

THIS WEEK (August 15)
DJIA 16662 +0.7%
S&P 500 1955 + 1.2%
NYSE 10796 +1.0%
NASDAQ 4464 +2.2%
NASD 100 3987 +2.6%
Russ 2000 1141 +0.9%
DJTransprts 8264 +2.1%
DJ Utilities 549 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,642 -0.4%
Gold bull. 1,304 -0.5%
GoldStcks 101.97 +0.7%
Canada 15284 +0.6%
London 6689 +1.9%
Germany 9092 +0.9%
France 4174 +0.7%
Hong Kong 24954 +2.6%
Japan 15318 +3.6%
Australia 5559 +2.4%
S. Korea 2063 +1.6%
India 26103 +3.1%
Indonesia 5148 +1.9%
Brazil 55745 +2.1%
Mexico 44629 +1.2%
China 2331 +1.5%
LAST WEEK (August 8)
DJIA 16553 +0.4%
S&P 500 1931 + 0.3%
NYSE 10691 -0.1%
NASDAQ 4370 +0.4%
NASD 100 3888 +0.2%
Russ 2000 1131 +1.5%
DJTransprts 8092 –0.3%
DJ Utilities 542 +0.4%
XOI Oils 1,648 +1.1%
Gold bull. 1,311 +1.4%
GoldStcks 101.26 +1.8%
Canada 15196 -0.1%
London 6567 -1.7%
Germany 9009 -2.2%
France 4147 - 1.3%
Hong Kong 24331 -0.8%
Japan 14778 -4.8%
Australia 5429 -2.1%
S. Korea 2031 -2.0%
India 25329 -0.6%
Indonesia 5053 -0.7%
Brazil 55603 -0.5%
Mexico 44105 +0.3%
China 2297 +0.4%
PREVIOUS WEEK (August 1)
DJIA 16493 - 2.8%
S&P 500 1925 - 2.7%
NYSE 10692 - 2.7%
NASDAQ 4352 - 2.2%
NASD 100 3879 - 2.2%
Russ 2000 1114 - 2.6%
DJTransprts 8120 - 3.7%
DJ Utilities 540 - 2.8%
XOI Oils 1,630 - 3.3%
Gold bull. 1,293 - 1.1%
GoldStcks 99.49 - 2.1%
Canada 15215 -1.6%
London 6679 -1.7%
Germany 9210 -4.5%
France 4202 - 3.0%
Hong Kong 24532 +1.3%
Japan 15523 +0.4%
Australia 5547 -0.5%
S. Korea 2073 +2.0%
India 25480 -2.5%
Indonesia 5088 0%
Brazil 55902 -3.2%
Mexico 43986 -0.9%
China 2288 +2.8%

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week’s reports include the first look at the housing industry in a while, and will include: the Housing Market Index, New Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Consumer Price Index, minutes of the last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update (Stock market, bonds, gold) from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

The Economic Recovery in Europe Ended Again in 2nd Quarter.

Thursday, August 14, 9:25 a.m.

As feared, Europe’s shaky recovery from the Great Recession ended again in the 2nd quarter, at least for now.

The 18-nation euro-zone has struggled mightily to recover from the 2008 meltdown. It dipped back into recession after its initial recovery. And now its recovery from that double-dip lasted just four quarters.

It was reported this morning that the 18-country euro-zone showed 0.0% growth in the 2nd quarter, down from 0.2% in the first quarter, and missing the consensus forecast for at least tepid growth of 0.1%.

The four quarter recovery had been led by Germany, the euro-zone’s largest and previously strongest economy.

But its growth plunged from positive +0.7% growth in the 1st quarter to negative –0.2% contraction in the 2nd quarter.

France, the euro-zone’s second largest economy, reported its economy showed no growth (flat) for the second straight quarter.

Italy, the euro-zone’s third largest economy, reported negative growth of –0.2% for the 2nd quarter.

Germany, France, and Italy account for 66% of the euro-zone’s economy.

That is not good news globally, since the economy of the euro-zone is as large as the economy of the U.S., in fact fractionally larger.

So far anyway, the European Central Bank (ECB), has left its forecast for GDP growth in 2015 unchanged at a tepid 1.5%, believing the second quarter slowdown was only temporary.

However, the war of dueling economic sanctions between both Russia and the EU/U.S. will likely have an unexpected additional negative economic impact on both sides over coming months.

Ah yes, big banks and regulators. There they go again.

Investigations after every significant bear market, or bursting of an asset bubble, reveal the fraudulent activities of the major banks and brokerage firms.

Investors are shocked and angered at the extent of the chicanery revealed in the investigations, and demand punishment and regulations to prevent it from ever happening again.

However, as I have written more than a few times over the decades, every time investors soon confirm the age-old observation that they have short memories.

Wall Street firms learned that long ago. They know that all they have to do is lay low, make reassuring statements, and wait. When markets recover, as they always do, when investors are making profits again, and the government assures them they are considering new regulations that will prevent a recurrence of previous problems, the prior anger fades.

The new regulations Congress promised investors are also pretty much forgotten, allowing them to be dramatically watered-down, if passed at all.

Nothing has changed in this cycle.

Here we are in 2014, six years after the 2008 crisis, five years after the hugely publicized and promising congressional hearings, investigations, and proposed tough new regulations, still waiting for the most important of those new regulations to be implemented.

One of those is the Volker Rule, part of the once so promising, and now so watered-down Dodd-Frank financial reform law of 2010. The Volker rule requires banks to divest themselves of investments in private-equity and venture capital operations, and prohibits them from making speculative bets with their capital. A few have already partially complied in advance of implementation of the rules, spinning off part of their ownership in hedge funds, and private-equity operations.

However, Reuters reported yesterday that, “Bank officials, financial trade groups, lobbyists and lawmakers, are quietly pressing the Federal Reserve to delay implementation of key requirements in the Volker Rule”. They are pushing for a further delay of up to 7 years.

Then there are the promised punishment of the wrong-doers.

Charges are filed with great publicity. Bu years pass. No one goes to jail. Some may receive golden handshakes and multi-million dollar exit packages to fade into the sunset. Most everyone else remains in place.

Long after firms have been bailed out and are making huge $billion profits again, they settle the charges out of court, not with individuals paying, but with the corporation paying out of their profits.

I wonder how many investors are aware that in 2012, individual major banks agreed to pay more than $10 billion in out-of court settlements of fraud charges. Of course the settlements included the standard provision that the firms neither confirm nor deny the charges.

Last year, 2013, in another series of cases, major banks including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, UBS, CitiGroup, and others, agreed to more than $17 billion more in out of court settlements.

In 2014, Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to helping wealthy U.S. citizens evade taxes. It paid a fine of $2.6 billion.

President of Boston Fed calls for a broad review of brokerage rules. 

As MarketWatch reported yesterday:

“The brokerage industry remains vulnerable to financial panic, or runs, and tougher federal oversight is needed, said Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed, on Wednesday.

"Given the widespread support provided to broker-dealers and the difficulties they encountered during the crisis, a comprehensive re-evaluation of broker-dealer regulation is overdue," Rosengren said in a speech to a conference on wholesale funding in New York.”

“It is surprising that broker-dealers are still allowed to fund long-duration risky assets with short-term repurchase agreements. Bank holding companies that include broker-dealers may have to hold more capital than banks that are not in the business, he said.“

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: European Markets Look Downright Scary

Our Seasonal Timing Strategy:

It doesn’t ‘work’ every year. Last year it was up only 18.7% compared to the S&P 500 being up 31.7% (including dividends). In 2012 it was up only 7.7% when the S & P was up 16.1%.

But those occasional underperforming years sure have not affected its long-term performance, thanks to the way it avoids the large losses the market periodically experiences.

image

“Buy and hold will do what buy and hold has always done; allow you to reach the giddy heights of the top of the roller coaster before experiencing the fear (and financial loss) of the downhill slide.”  Joseph L. Shaefer, CEO, Stanford Wealth Management.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quite positive bounce off the oversold condition, on low volume of just over 0.5 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 91 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.7%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.5%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.8%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.2%.

Gold closed up $3 an ounce at 1,313.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.7%.

The China etf GXC closed up 1.1%.

European Markets rallied off their short-term oversold condition yesterday.

081414b

The Europe Dow closed up 0.8%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.4%. The German DAX closed up 1.4%. France’s CAC closed up 0.8%. Belgium closed up 1.0%. Denmark closed up 0.5%. Finland closed up 0.1%. Greece closed up 1.5%.  Ireland closed up 0.4%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed up 0.3%. Norway closed up 0.3%. Portugal closed up 1.9%. Spain closed up 0.6%. Switzerland closed up 0.7%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed up 0.6%. China closed down 0.7%. Hong Kong closed down 0.4%. India closed up 0.7%. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.6%. Malaysia closed unchanged. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.2%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you are also subscribed to the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up this morning, still bouncing off their oversold condition.

The Europe Dow is up 0.4%

The London FTSE is up 0.5%. The German DAX is up 0.4%. France’s CAC is up 0.3%. Belgium is up 0.1%. Denmark is down 0.5%. Finland is up 0.2%. Greece is up 0.1%. Ireland is up 0.7%. Italy is up 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.3%. Portugal is up 1.5%. Spain is down 0.3%. Switzerland is up 0.3%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.49 a barrel, at $97.10.

Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,312.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week has been a very light week for economic reports, but they include Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was that Small Business Optimism ticked up from 95.0 in June to 95.7 in July. Of the six components in the Index three were up and three down. The strongest was the number of job openings at positive 24%, the weakest at negative 18% was the trend of earnings.

Yesterday’s reports were that Retail Sales were flat in July, the weakest results in six months, missing the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.2%. Details within the report show that auto sales fell 0.2% in July. Business inventories increased 0.4% in June, more than the consensus forecast of 0.3%. And Mortgage Applications fell 2.7% last week, re-financing apps down 4.0%, purchases apps down 1.0%.

This morning’s only report is that new weekly unemployment claims rose by 21,000 last week, to 311,000. the four-week moving average ticked up by 2,000 to 295,750.

The pre-open indicators have come off earlier highs.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so at the open.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: European Markets Look Downright Scary

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow. 

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

European markets struggle with rally attempt already?

Tuesday, August 12, 9:25 a.m.

I’ve been pointing out that European markets, which had been tracking so closely with the U.S. market, similar resilience, similar new highs, had topped out two months ago. Since they had topped out first and were down more than twice as much, I wondered if they were leading the U.S. market.

I noted that could be ominous, since many European markets had broken beneath their long-term 40-week moving averages. Actually 12 European markets have done so.

081214g

However, European markets had plunged to very oversold short-term conditions that I expected should produce at least another short-term rally attempt.

I added that the quality of that rally attempt would be important, since their first attempts to rally had been halted at their 50-day moving averages (which had previously been support).

They did finally begin to rally yesterday.

But they’re already back down this morning?

081214a

Probably temporary. The oversold condition should produce more rally than that, even though economic news from Europe remains dismal. Yet look at how sharply they continued to plunge in the past after breaking beneath to 40-week m.a.

What is oil saying about inflation?

The price of oil is usually a pretty good indicator of overall inflation.

It has been undecided over the last few years, confined in a narrowing triangle of lower highs and higher lows.

The direction of the eventual breakout of a market from symmetrical triangle formations usually indicates the next sustained direction.

Oil may soon be providing a clue as to whether or not the Fed is right in saying that inflation is not a threat.

081214f

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: European Markets Look Downright Scary

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow. 

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A positive day, but early strength gave way to afternoon selling. The Dow was up 75 points in the morning, but gave most of it in the afternoon to close up just 16 points. Volume slacked off to under 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 16 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.6%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.9%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.4%.

Gold closed down $1 an ounce at 1,310.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed unchanged.

The China etf GXC closed up 1.1%.

European Markets finally rallied sharply off their oversold condition yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.1%.

The London FTSE closed up 1.0%. The German DAX closed up 1.9%. France’s CAC closed up 1.2%. Belgium closed up 1.3%. Denmark closed up 1.8%. Finland closed up 1.6%. Greece closed up 1.7%.  Ireland closed up 1.3%. Italy closed up 1.4%. Netherlands closed up 1.6%. Norway closed up 2.1%. Portugal closed down 0.9%. Spain closed up 0.9%. Switzerland closed up 0.7%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 1.3%. China closed down 0.1%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed up 1.4%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan closed up 0.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.5%.

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.5%. France’s CAC is down 0.5%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Denmark is up 0.4%. Finland is up 0.2%. Greece is up 2.8%. Ireland is up 0.3%. Italy is up 0.7%. Netherlands is down 0.2%. Norway is down 0.8%. Portugal is up 0.1%. Spain is up 0.6%. Switzerland is up 0.4%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.85 a barrel, at $97.23.

Gold is up $5 an ounce at $1,315.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be be a very light week for economic reports, but they will include Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only report is that Small Business Optimism ticked up from 95.0 in June to 95.7 in July. Of the six components in the Index three were up and three down. The strongest was the number of job openings at positive 24%, the weakest at negative 18% was the trend of earnings..

The pre-open indicators have been flat all morning but weakening.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 30 points or so at the open.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: European Markets Look Downright Scary

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets Report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. tomorrow. 

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

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