Oil and global stock markets rebounding sharply.

Thursday, December 18, 9:25 a.m.

So far so good on our expectation of a 4 to 5% pullback and then a resumption of the bull market.

The pullback amounted to:

Dow:  -4.9%   S&P 500:  -5.0%    Nasdaq:  -5.1%     NYSE Composite:  -5.9% 

One day of rally and bounce in the price of oil does not mean the pullback is necessarily over, but is encouraging, as is the strength of global markets overnight, and the positive early morning indicators this morning.

The pullback did take care of the situations that had us concerned and expecting it. The first was the short-term overbought condition above 50-day moving averages (and sell signals on our short-term technical indicators).

121814a

Secondly, there was the extreme bullish investor sentiment.

And this week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows the pullback did evaporate a lot of the previous confidence and lack of concern.

The bullish percentage, which was at a very high 57.9% in mid November, has fallen to 38.7%.

The bearish percentage, which was at a very low 15.0% in Nov., has risen to 26.9%.

Those readings are just about on the long-term average of AAII sentiment, which is 38.9% bulls, and 30.4% bears.

You could credit Janet Yellen and the “Yellen Put”. She assured investors in her press conference that replacing the phrase ‘for a considerable period time’ in the FOMC statement with the phrase that the Fed ‘will be patient’ regarding when it might begin raising interest, is not a change in its plans. But the Dow was up more than 100 points before the statement was released.

You could credit the oversold condition of oil prices.

You could call it just a temporary dead cat bounce, as many are.

But we will just continue to follow our technical indicators and their signals, short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of today’s blog, there is a hotline and an in-depth mid-week Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A big rally day on high volume of more than 1 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 288 points, or 1.7%. The S&P 500 closed up 2.0%. The NYSE Composite closed up 2.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 2.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.9%. The Russell 2000 closed up 3.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.9%.

Gold closed down $8 an ounce at $1,186.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 1.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.9%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed up 0.1%. The German DAX closed down 0.2%. France’s CAC closed up 0.5%. Belgium closed down 0.3%. Denmark closed up 1.0%. Finland closed up 0.2%. Greece closed up 3.3%.  Ireland closed up 0.8%. Italy closed down 0.5%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 2.9%. Portugal closed down 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.3%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 1.0%. China closed down 0.1%. Hong Kong closed up 1.1%. India closed up 1.6%. Indonesia closed up 1.5%. Japan closed up 2.3%. Malaysia closed up 1.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.5%. Taiwan closed up 0.6%. Thailand closed up 2.5%.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 1.4%. The German DAX is up 2.2%. France’s CAC is up 2.8%. Belgium is up 1.8%. Denmark is up 2.3%. Finland is up 2.2%. Greece is down 1.3%. Ireland is up 0.8%. Italy is up 2.0%. Netherlands is up 2.4%. Norway is up 3.3%. Portugal is up 2.6%. Spain is up 2.7%. Switzerland is up 2.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up again, up 2% at  $57.60 a barrel.

Gold is up $9 an ounce at $1,205 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports. They include Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Consumer Price Index, the Phila Fed Index, etc. And the Fed’s next FOMC meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index unexpectedly fell from positive +10.2 in November to negative –3.6 in December. The consensus forecast was for an improvement to positive +12.0. But national Industrial Production surged up 1.3% in November, the biggest monthly increase since May, 2010. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.9%. Meanwhile, the Housing Market Index, which measures the sentiment of home-builders, ticked down from 58 in November to 57 in December, still near its highest reading in 9 years.

Tuesday’s reports were that New Housing Starts declined 1.6% in November. And the Markit PMI Mfg Index declined from 54.8 in November to 53.7 in December, its lowest reading in 11 months.

Yesterday’s reports were that new mortgage applications fell 3.3% last week. Applications for re-financing were unchanged, while applications for home purchases fell 7%. The Consumer Price Index fell 0.3% in November, the biggest monthly drop in 6 years, thanks mostly to the big decline in gasoline and other energy costs. The core rate (ex- food and energy costs) was up 0.1%.

This morning’s report so far is that weekly unemployment claims fell by 6,000 to 289,000 last week. The four-week m.a. fell by 750 to 298,750. Still to come are the Phila Fed’s Mfg Index, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.

The early morning indicators have been very positive all night, following through on yesterday’s big gain.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 230 points or so in the early going.


I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of today’s blog, there is a hotline and an in-depth mid-week Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Short-term pullback or something worse?

Tuesday, December 16, 9:25 a.m.

A few weeks ago when we called for a short-term pullback of 4 to 5%, it was due solely to the short-term overbought condition of the major indexes above their 50-day moving averages, and that the short-term technical indicators had triggered a short-tem sell signal.

However, another condition unexpectedly took over, the collapse of oil prices, which suddenly plunged from $75 a barrel three weeks ago, to just $56 as of yesterday’s close.

121614a

And now we have the crisis in Russia and collapse of its currency, and stock market, brought on in no small part by the collapse of oil prices.

121614h

So far, in the U.S. we have only the expected short-term pullback to alleviate the overbought condition.

121614c

And the short-term indicators are now in their oversold areas – if this is just a short-term pullback.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of today’s blog, there will be an in-depth mid-week Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Another negative day. Volume picked up again, to 0.95 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The price of oil plunged another 4.8% to $55.04 a barrel. Lower oil and energy prices no longer seen as a positive.

The Dow closed down 100 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.9%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.0%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.2%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.8%.

Gold closed down $13 an ounce at $1,208.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.2%.

European Markets plunged sharply again yesterday.

The Europe Dow plunged 2.9%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed down 1.9%. The German DAX closed down 2.7%. France’s CAC closed down 2.5%. Belgium closed down 1.7%. Denmark closed down 1.8%. Finland closed down 2.2%. Greece closed up 1.5%.  Ireland closed down 2.3%. Italy closed down 2.8%. Netherlands closed down 2.5%. Norway closed down 0.5%. Portugal closed down 2.8%. Spain closed down 2.4%. Switzerland closed down 2.1%.

Asian Markets closed down again last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.7%. China closed up 2.3%. Hong Kong closed down 1.5%. India closed down 2.0%. Indonesia closed down 1.6%. Japan closed down 1.9%. Malaysia closed down 1.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.1%. South Korea closed down 0.9%. Singapore closed down 2.4%. Taiwan closed down 0.4%. Thailand closed down 1.1%.


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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets have been volatile this morning, positive for awhile, then quite negative, and now off their lows and mixed.

The Europe Dow is up 0.2%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.3%. The German DAX is down 0.3%. France’s CAC is down 0.8%. Belgium is down 0.3%. Denmark is down 2.0%. Finland is down 1.1%. Greece is up 0.7%. Ireland is down 0.4%. Italy is down 0.2%. Netherlands is down 0.7%. Norway is down 0.9%. Portugal is down 1.1%. Spain is down 1.2%. Switzerland is down 1.0%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down again, down $1.87 a barrel at $54.04.

Gold is up $3 an ounce at $1,211 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports. They include Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Consumer Price Index, the Phila Fed Index, etc. And the Fed’s next FOMC meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index unexpectedly fell from positive +10.2 in November to negative –3.6 in December. The consensus forecast was for an improvement to positive +12.0. But national Industrial Production surged up 1.3% in November, the biggest monthly increase since May, 2010. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.9%. Meanwhile, the Housing Market Index, which measures the sentiment of home-builders, ticked down from 58 in November to 57 in December, still near its highest reading in 9 years.

This morning’s reports so far are that New Housing Starts declined 1.6% in November. The Markit PMI Mfg Index will be released at 9:45.

The early morning indicators have been all over the lot in nervous volatility over the price of oil and the further collapse of the Russian ruble, from up 80 points for the Dow to down 90 points, and back up, but not to positive territory.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

At the moment, our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 50 points or so in the early going.


I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of today’s blog, there will be an in-depth mid-week Markets Update (stocks, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Does worst week in 2 1/2 years mean anything?

Saturday, December 13, 12 noon.

It was a scary week. The headlines are full of the observation that it was the worst week for the U.S. stock market in 2 1/2 years.

Okay. But does that fact by itself mean anything as far as whether this is just the brief pullback from an overbought condition our short-term indicators told us and you to expect?

121314b

Or does the week’s big plunge mean it’s the beginning of something worse?

By itself it tells us nothing.

For instance, that previous worst week took place in the middle of 2012, as circled in blue on the next chart. It took place within what turned out to be only an 8.9% pullback by the Dow, another of those times when the market did not see even a normal 10% correction.

That last worst week took place in the middle of a decline, and saw the Dow lose 451 points for the week. The following Monday it closed up 135 points, and with some minor volatility was up 85 points for the week.

However, the scary decline was not over. Two weeks later it was back down 336 points, and dropped fractionally beneath the long-term 200-day m.a. in the process.

121314a

But that was the end of the pullback. The following week it was up 435 points, the week after that 212 points. The bull market had resumed.

Does that mean that scenario will repeat?

No. Day to day, or week to week volatility does not indicate what will follow in either direction. We depend on our short-term indicators for short-term expectations, and our intermediate and longer-term indicators for upcoming periods beyond the short-term.

U.S. investors also fled to safe haven bonds this week.

I have been periodically writing about U.S. Treasury bonds all year. Most recently U.S. Treasury Bonds Are Outperforming S&P 500

That could certainly be seen this week. While the S&P 500 plunged 3.5% for the week, the 20-year bond etf TLT closed up another 4.3%.

121314c

However, it was not new with this week.

Bonds have defied the expectations of the experts all year, rallying in spite of the Fed eliminating its massive QE bond-buying program, and more recently in spite of expectations that the economy is improving enough that the Fed will begin raising interest rates this year (bonds move opposite to interest rates).

The catalyst has been global investors, buying U.S. treasury bonds as a safe haven in the face of the problems in their own economies, stock and bond markets.

But this week, U.S. investors joined the move to bonds as their own market plunged on concerns that the crash in the price of oil will continue to have a domino negative effect on important global economies that will spill over on the U.S.economy.

Bonds are spiked up to a somewhat overbought condition. Does that mean anything for the price of oil or the stock market next week?

1990’s type bull market and continuing secular bear are compatible.

I often receive e-mails that indicate the writer didn’t thoroughly read an article or commentary before jumping on the keyboard to respond.

I received an e-mail (from a non-subscriber) this morning that I am compelled to comment on since there may be others thinking the same way based on two recent article titles.

As you know, my newspaper column last week Are We in Another 1990s Style Super Bull Market-  referred to similarities so far and the possibility that the bull market that began in 2009 could turn out to be like the 1990’s super bull, which lasted nine years.

My column this weekend Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over refers to reasons to believe the secular bear market that began in 2000 is not over, that another downturn lies ahead, with the most likely time-frame being 2017.

The e-mailer said, “You present the case for a new secular bull market and then a week later argue the secular bear isn’t done. You’re simply covering your ass in both directions and will probably republish the correct call at a later date to prove your wisdom.”

In fact, the two columns do not contradict each other, but were planned in advance to be presented sequentially to tie the two situations together.

My analysis and article about the secular bear market not being over very specifically referred to 2017 as being the year likely to see the next serious downturn that keeps the secular bear alive.

My analysis and article about the possibility of being in a persistent bull market like the 1990′s, points out that the current cyclical bull market is now entering its 7th year and how in the 1990′s in the 7th year that bull market had three more years to run. If the current market entering its 7th year also has three more years to run, 2014 + 3 equals 2017.

Same conclusions, possible continuing bull market, but within the context of the secular bear not being over, and 2017 being the year both types of analysis point to.

Scams abound.

Readers of my books and blog know my penchant for warning about scams and frauds that separate so many people, including trusting investors, from their savings. The most recent:  Don’t Let Greed Lure You Into Scams!

Shane Ferro has an interesting article on the subject on Business Insider this morning. Some excerpts:

“Here’s a pro tip: Buying unsecured notes advertised in your church’s weekly leaflet is probably not a good idea. Another tip: If some guy encourages you to invest in his one-man distressed-real-estate fund returning 8-10% while warning you that the stock market is too risky, run away, far away.”

“The SEC alleges that David Fleet’s company, Cornerstone, fraudulently sold $16.75 million worth of unsecured notes, mostly to retirees, some of which were "advertised … in one or more church-affiliated publications, for his real-estate business between 1997 and 2010. The vast majority were sold between 2006 and 2010. As you may have guessed, 2006 through 2010 wasn’t a great time to invest in the real-estate business, and things went south. Instead of letting his investors know, the SEC says Fleet borrowed more and more, while continuing to maintain that the business was profitable.”

“After that, Cornerstone reduced interest payments to 1% (from 8-10%), and prohibited investors from withdrawing their principal. Eventually the company filed for bankruptcy.”

Caveat emptor.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, a hotline and the latest issue of the newsletter from Wednesday evening are in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


U.S. market yesterday.

An ugly day for sure, on increased volume of more than 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 312 points, or 1.8%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.6%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.1%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.0%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.0%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce to $1,221 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.4%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.4%.

Australia closed down 0.2%. China closed up 0.4%. Hong Kong closed down 0.3%. India closed down 0.9%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed down 0.9%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed down 0.8%.

European markets plunged sharply again yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 2.3%

The London FTSE closed down 2.5%. The German DAX closed down 2.7%. France’s CAC closed down 2.8%. Belgium closed down 2.6%. Denmark closed down 1.7%. Finland closed down 2.1%. Greece closed down 0.4%. Ireland closed down 1.9%. Italy closed down 3.1%. Netherlands closed down 2.5%. Norway closed down 1.6%. Portugal closed down 1.9%. Spain closed down 2.8%. Switzerland closed down 1.8%.


Global markets for the week. 

Ugly around the world. Worst week in 2 1/2 years.

THIS WEEK (Dec. 12)
DJIA 17280 -3.8%
S&P 500 2002 -3.5%
NYSE 10500 -4.3%
NASDAQ 4653 - 2.7%
NASD 100 4199 -2.6%
Russ 2000 1152 - 2.5%
DJTransprts 8836 -3.5%
DJ Utilities 598 + 0.1%
XOI Oils 1,241 -9.0%
Gold bull. 1,221 +2.6%
GoldStcks 68.68 -2.1%
Canada 13731 -5.1%
London 6300 -6.6%
Germany 9594 -4.9%
France 4108 -7.0%
Hong Kong 23249 -3.1%
Japan 17371 -3.1%
Australia 5196 -2.2%
S. Korea 1921 -3.3%
India 27350 -3.9%
Indonesia 5160 -0.5%
Brazil 48001 -7.7%
Mexico 41714 -3.5%
China 2938 0%
LAST WEEK (Dec. 5)
DJIA 17958 +0.7%
S&P 500 2075 +0.4%
NYSE 10970 +0.1%
NASDAQ 4780 -0.2%
NASD 100 4311 -0.6%
Russ 2000 1182 + 0.8%
DJTransprts 9152 -0.5%
DJ Utilities 597 -0.5%
XOI Oils 1,363 +2.1%
Gold bull. 1,190 +2.0%
GoldStcks 70.15 +2.6%
Canada 14473 -1.8%
London 6742 +0.3%
Germany 10087 +1.1%
France 4419 +0.7%
Hong Kong 24002 +0.1%
Japan 17920 +2.6%
Australia 5313 +0.3%
S. Korea 1986 +0.3%
India 28458 -0.8%
Indonesia 5187 +0.7%
Brazil 51992 -4.9%
Mexico 43230 -2.2%
China 2937 +9.5%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Nov. 28)
DJIA 17828 +0.1%
S&P 500 2067 +0.2%
NYSE 10955 -0.6%
NASDAQ 4791 +1.7%
NASD 100 4337 +2.0%
Russ 2000 1173 + 0.1%
DJTransprts 9198 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 599 +0.6%
XOI Oils 1,335 -10.1%
Gold bull. 1,167 -2.8%
GoldStcks 68.40 -7.3%
Canada 14744 -2.4%
London 6722 -0.4%
Germany 9980 +2.5%
France 4390 +1.0%
Hong Kong 23987 +2.3%
Japan 17459 +0.6%
Australia 5298 +0.1%
S. Korea 1980 +0.8%
India 28693 +1.3%
Indonesia 5149 +0.7%
Brazil 54664 -2.5%
Mexico 44190 -1.0%
China 2682 +7.9%


Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a fairly busy week for U.S. economic reports. They will include Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Consumer Price Index, the Phila Fed Index, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

And the Fed’s next FOMC meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Congress has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market is Not Over

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, a hotline and the latest issue of the newsletter from Wednesday evening are in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Oil price plunge has some global stock markets collapsing.

Thursday, December 11, 9:25 a.m.

When oil prices began to decline it was a blessing. Lower gasoline and other related energy costs put extra spending money in the pockets of U.S. consumers.

It helped the economy. This morning’s report was that retail sales were up 0.7% in November, beating the consensus forecast of 0.4%, and the fastest pace in 8 months, while October sales were revised up to 0.5% from the previously reported 0.3%.

121114a

However, as oil prices have plunged into a crash, they are raising concerns about the effect on much of the rest of the world that depends on oil profits to provide spending money for their consumers. Their stock markets have reacted.

121114b

121114c

121114d

If it continues, it has implications not only for the many oil and resource rich countries themselves, but also potentially for the U.S., since many of those countries are important trading partners of the U.S.

U.S. market pullback not over yet.

The market has made progress this week in pulling back to alleviate the short-term overbought condition above 50-day moving averages.

But it’s quite likely not over yet. That is assuming that it is only a brief pullback to alleviate the short-term overbought condition.

121114e

121114f

It also has not done much yet to cool off investor sentiment.

This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), released last night, showed bullish sentiment, which had begun to cool off some, actually increased from 42.7% to 45.0%, while bearishness declined from 25.9% to 22.3%.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Are We in Another 1990s Style Super Bull Market-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is a hotline from last evening, and the new issue of the newsletter from last evening, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

An ugly day, the worst since during the Sept/Oct pullback. Volume picked up to 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 268 points, or 1.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.6%. The NYSE Composite and Nasdaq closed down 1.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.6%. The Russell 2000 closed down 2.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.3%.

Gold closed down $2 an ounce to $1,229 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.6%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.7%.

European Markets closed down some yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.4%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed down 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.8%. Belgium closed unchanged. Denmark closed down 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece closed down 1.0%.  Ireland closed down 0.4%. Italy closed down 0.9%. Netherlands closed down 0.4%. Norway closed up 0.1%. Portugal closed down 1.9%. Spain closed down 0.6%. Switzerland closed down 0.3%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.9%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed down 0.5%. Hong Kong closed down 0.9%. India closed down 0.8%. Indonesia closed down 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.9%. Malaysia closed down 1.0%. New Zealand closed down 0.4%. South Korea closed down 1.5%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.2%. Thailand closed down 2.1%.


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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down some again this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.2%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.8%. The German DAX is up 0.2%. France’s CAC is down 0.4%. Belgium is up 0.1%. Denmark is down 0.6%. Finland is down 0.2%. Greece is plunging another 5.0%. Ireland is down 0.7%. Italy is down 0.3%. Netherlands is down 0.4%. Norway is down 0.2%. Portugal is down 0.8%. Spain is down 0.2%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.65 a barrel, at $60.29.

Gold is down $11 an ounce at $1,218 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a very light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s report was the Federal Reserve’s Labor-Market Conditions Index, based on 18 job market variables. In spite of the impressive job related reports lately, the index shows the momentum of jobs growth slowing as the Index fell from 3.9 in October to 2.9 in November.

From outside the U.S. was the report that China’s exports in November missed expectations , rising 4.7% versus the consensus forecast of 8%. And from Japan it was that Japan’s economy may be mired in a deeper recession than thought. Japan’s previously reported 3rd quarter GDP contraction of negative 1.6%, was revised down to 1.9%. The consensus expectation was that it would be revised to a smaller contraction. (It was Japan’s 2nd straight quarterly contraction, the common definition of a recession).

Tuesday’s reports were that the Small Business Optimism Index rose from 96.1 in October to 98.1 in November, its highest level in 7 years. And the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed 4.8 million job openings, in October, unchanged from September.

Yesterday’s reports were that the U.S, Federal budget deficit shrank to $57 billion for November, 58% less than November a year ago. And new mortgage applications rose last week by 7.3%. But. most of it was due to an increase of 13.2% in refinancing applications, and only 1.3% for home purchases.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims ticked down 3,000 to 294,000. The four-week m.a. ticked up by 250 to 299,250. And Retail Sales were up 0.7% in November. October retail sales were revised up to 0.5% from 0.3%.

The pre-open indicators, already somewhat positive, improved further after the retail sales report.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 75 points or so in the early going.


I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Are We in Another 1990s Style Super Bull Market-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is a hotline from last evening, and the new issue of the newsletter from last evening, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Expected market pullback has likely begun.

Tuesday, December 9, 8:00 a.m.

We have been noting for several weeks that the market was short-term overbought and quite likely to experience at least a short-term pullback of 3 to 5%.

Last week our short-term technical indicators triggered a short-term sell signal, and this week it looks like that pullback is underway.

Wall Street and the big program-trading firms have managed to hold the Dow up more than the rest of the market, helping keep the majority of investors (who only look at the Dow as an indication of market strength), happy.

However, the Dow was down 150 points intraday yesterday and closed down 106 points, while the NYSE Composite, which topped out two weeks ago, rallied back to a lower short-term high last week and declined yesterday to a lower low.

120814b

There were more than enough catalysts blamed for the decline yesterday, not the least of which was the further plunge in the price of oil.

120814d

There was also the report that China’s exports in November missed expectations , rising 4.7% versus the consensus forecast of 8%. And that Japan’s economy may be mired in a deeper recession than thought. Its previously reported 3rd quarter contraction of negative 1.6%, was revised down to 1.9%.

But we believe the short-term overbought condition of the market and short-term sell signals was the main catalyst and will result in a pullback regardless of surrounding conditions.

Also involved may be:

Short-term market patterns.

The ‘monthly strength period’, the last two trading days of a month and the first four trading days of the next month, was due to end last Thursday.

The next pattern is for the week after the monthly strength period to be negative. Also, the week before the monthly expirations week, which this week is, also tends to be negative.

The big question is whether it will be just a brief pullback to the 50-day moving averages, or the beginning of something worse.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Are We in Another 1990s Style Super Bull Market-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A negative day. They did hold the Dow up better than the rest of the market. Volume picked up to 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 106 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.7%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.9%.

Gold closed up $14 an ounce to $1,204 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.2%.

European Markets closed down yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.8%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed down 1.1%. The German DAX closed down 0.7%. France’s CAC closed down 1.0%. Belgium closed down 0.3%. Denmark closed down 0.5%. Finland closed down 0.3%. Greece closed up 0.2%.  Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 0.7%. Netherlands closed down 0.9%. Norway closed down 1.2%. Portugal closed down 1.1%. Spain closed down 0.9%. Switzerland closed down 0.3%.

Asian Markets closed down sharply last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 1.4%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 1.7%. China plunged 5.4%. Hong Kong closed down 2.3%. India closed down 1.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.7%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.4%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed down 0.6%. Thailand closed down 1.0%.


Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.


Markets This Morning:

European markets are plunging this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 1.0%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 1.5%. The German DAX is down 1.3. France’s CAC is down 1.7%. Belgium is down 1.3%. Denmark is down 0.5%. Finland is down 1.0%. Greece is plunging 10.1%. Ireland is down 1.5%. Italy is down 1.9%. Netherlands is down 1.4%. Norway is down 1.2%. Portugal is down 2.3%. Spain is down 2.0%. Switzerland is down 0.7%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.74 a barrel, at $63.79.

Gold is up $7 an ounce at $1,211 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a very light week for U.S. economic reports, but they will include Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were the Federal Reserve’s Labor-Market Conditions Index, based on 18 job market variables. In spite of the impressive job related reports lately, the index shows the momentum of jobs growth slowing as the Index fell from 3.9 in October to 2.9 in November.

From outside the U.S. was the report that China’s exports in November missed expectations , rising 4.7% versus the consensus forecast of 8%. And from Japan it was that Japan’s economy may be mired in a deeper recession than thought. Japan’s previously reported 3rd quarter GDP contraction of negative 1.6%, was revised down to 1.9%. The consensus expectation was that it would be revised to a smaller contraction. (It was Japan’s 2nd straight quarterly contraction, the common definition of a recession).

This morning’s only report so far is that the Small Business Optimism Index rose from 96.1 in October to 98.1 in November, its highest level in 7 years. Still to come is the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).


Our Pre-open Indicators:

We are putting this post on early due to travel time to an early meeting. But at the moment the pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 140 points or so in the early going.


I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Are We in Another 1990s Style Super Bull Market-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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