Neither bulls nor bears are anxious to commit.

Tuesday, April 22, 9:25 a.m.

It appears that both bulls and bears have been mostly waiting on the sidelines for some months, both sides talking about their expectations, but neither willing to back those expectations with action beyond brief short-term trades.

Is it because the painful whipsawing in the volatility last summer resumed in January, after only a three-month October to December rally?

042214h

This is a market that almost four months into the year has tried both ways several times, and still can’t decide what the uncertain conditions mean for its direction from here.

Most recently it was the big weekly plunge two weeks ago in which the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq 3.1%. That had the bears thinking it might be the start of something on the downside, but not with enough conviction to sell into it and create follow through.

Last week it was a big rally week that saw the S&P 500 back up 2.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.4%. The five straight rally days was the longest winning streak since November.

Will it have follow through to the upside?

The situation has the safe havens of gold and bonds also on edge.

Gold, which had been rallying since December, has pulled back and is threatening to break below its 30-week m.a.

Bonds, which had also been rallying since year-end, also remain uncertainly above their 30-week m.a., but just barely.

042214i

Both probably depend on the next sustained direction of the stock market.

At some point something has to give in one direction or the other.

When it does, the move is likely to be swift and significant. But so far neither side is anxious to commit, pretty much sitting on the sidelines waiting for someone to make the first move.

We will just follow the signals of our technical indicators. 

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  There is More to the Economic Slowdown Than Just Weather

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The next issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website .

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A positive day, but on low volume of less than 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 40 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.7%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,289.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.1%.

European Markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.6%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.6%. The German DAX closed up 1.0%. France’s CAC closed up 0.6%. Belgium closed up 0.4%. Denmark closed up 1.9%. Finland closed up 0.5%. Greece close up 2.5%. Ireland closed down 0.3%. Italy closed up 0.4%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%. Norway closed up 0.8%. Portugal closed up 0.9%. Spain closed up 0.2%. Switzerland closed up 0.6%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.4%. China closed up 0.3%. Hong Kong closed down 0.1%. India closed down 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed down 0.9%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.7%. Taiwan closed up 0.3%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up strongly this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.9%. The German DAX is up 1.4%. France’s CAC is up 0.8%. Belgium is up 0.6%. Denmark is up 2.6%. Finland is up 1.3%. Greece is up 1.1%. Ireland is up 1.2%. Italy is up 0.8%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.8%. Portugal is up 0.9%. Spain is up 1.0%. Switzerland is up 0.9%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $1.43 a barrel, at $102.94

Gold is down $1 an ounce at $1,289.

Economic Reports:

This week will see numerous important economic reports, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Chicago Fed’s National Business Index fell to 0.20 in March from 0.53 in February. But the three-month moving average rose to 0.0 from –0.14 in February. And the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator Index improved 0.8% in March to 100.9, its best improvement in four months.

This morning’s reports so far are the FHFA Home Prices report which showed home prices were up 0.6% in February. But that was after prices in January that were previously reported as up 0.5%, were revised to a decline of 0.4%. However, prices were up 6.9% over the previous 12 months.

Still to come are Existing Home Sales, and the Richmond Fed Mfg Index, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 20 points or so at the open.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  There is More to the Economic Slowdown Than Just Weather

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

The next issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Short-term market patterns have continued.

Saturday, April 19, 12 noon.

The market has been following its short-term pattern tendencies to an unusually precise degree.

The ‘monthly strength period’ and end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’ came and went on schedule, and produced their typical rally.

Then the market responded to the monthly jobs report in its typical fashion, a triple-digit one to three-day move by the Dow, this time to the downside.

The second half of the jobs pattern is that the kneejerk reaction to the jobs report is usually reversed over the subsequent few days. That certainly happened with the 191 point two-day rally.

The next pattern was that the week before the month’s options expirations week, which was two weeks ago, tends to be negative. And the market did plunge sharply, the S&P 500 down 2.7% for the week.

The next historical pattern was that the week of the expirations, which this week was, tends to be positive. And it was, with the S&P 500 gaining back 2.7% this week.

Can it continue?

If so, the next pattern is that the week after a positive options expirations week, which will be next week, tends to be negative.

However, it is unusual for the market to follow its short-term patterns this precisely for so long (or short-term traders would have it easy). So we shall see.

Mark Hulbert on ‘Sell in May’ seasonal timing:

Excerpts from this week’s article on MarketWatch by Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert Financial Digest: Link to full article: Hulbert- Sell in April and go away- 

“To be sure, the seasonal tendency doesn’t work every year. The summer months in 2013 were one such exception, when the Dow rose 4.8% between May Day and Halloween. But it works enough of the time to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to decide whether a pattern is more than just a fluke.

Another impressive statistical feat achieved by the Halloween Indicator [Sell in May and Go Away]: It’s become even more pronounced in recent decades. That’s noteworthy, because the more usual pattern is for tendencies to stop working once they are discovered and lots of investors begin to follow them.

But not in this case. Ben Jacobsen, a finance professor at Massey University in New Zealand, says he found an article as long ago as 1935 in the Financial Times in which the “Sell in May” pattern is referred to as something that was already well-known and followed.

Even though the pattern nearly 80 years ago already had a solid historical foundation, Jacobsen says that, since then, the difference between the average returns in winter and summer has become even bigger.

Given this impressive record, the odds would seem to be quite low of being able to do even better . . . . . . . . but over the past 12 years, one of the two market-timing services that I monitor that regularly second-guess the “Sell in May and Go Away” system — Sy Harding’s Street Smart Report, edited by Sy Harding — has significantly increased that seasonal pattern’s performance. While the other one — Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch — has not improved on the Halloween Indicator, it at least has still beaten a buy-and-hold strategy.”

 

Annualized Gain

Risk reduction

Sharpe Ratio

Buy & Hold

7.7%

0%

0.13

Mechanical version of Halloween Indicator (Sell in May & Go Away)

7.9%

38%

0.20

Almanac Investor variant

7.9%

36%

0.13

Sy Harding variant

9.2%

39%

0.24

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   There is More to the Economic Slowdown Than Just Weather

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website The next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

U.S. market’s last session for week was mixed.

The U.S. market closed mixed Thursday. The Dow was up 40 points in the morning but sold off in the afternoon to close down 16 points. Volume was quite low for an options expirations day, with 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 16 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.1%.

Gold closed down $8 an ounce to $1,296 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 1.1%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

Asian markets closed up Thursday night (Friday in the U.S.). 

Among individual markets Thursday night:

Australia closed up 0.6%. China closed down 0.1%. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 1.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.5%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.6%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.3%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

European markets closed up yesterday:

The Europe Dow closed up 0.6%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.6%. The German DAX closed up 1.0%. France’s CAC closed up 0.6%. Belgium closed up 0.4%. Greece closed up 2.5%. Ireland closed down 0.3%. Italy closed up 0.4%. The Netherlands closed up 0.2%. Norway closed up 0.9%. Portugal closed up 0.9%. Spain closed up 0.2%. Switzerland closed up 0.65%.

Global markets for the week. 

In the U.S. the Dow, S&P 500, and NYSE Composite had their biggest weekly gain in several years, following their worst week in several years, putting them right where they were two weeks ago. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 only partially recovered from the previous week’s loss.

Major markets in Europe recovered less than half of their losses of the previous week.

THIS WEEK (April 18)
DJIA 16408 + 2.4%
S&P 500 1864 + 2.7%
NYSE 10532 + 2.5%
NASDAQ 4095 + 2.4%
NASD 100 3534 + 2.6%
Russ 2000 1137 + 2.3%
DJTransprts 7634 + 3.7%
DJ Utilities 543 + 1.6%
XOI Oils 1,584 + 4.3%
Gold bull. 1,294 - 1.8%
GoldStcks 90.18 - 2.6%
Canada 14500 + 1.7%
London 6625 + 1.0%
Germany 9409 + 1.0%
France 4431 + 1.5%
Hong Kong 22760 - 1.1%
Japan 14516 + 4.0%
Australia 5444 + 0.4%
S. Korea 2004 + 0.4%
India 22628 unchgd
Indonesia 4897 + 1.7%
Brazil 52111 + 0.6%
Mexico 40890 + 1.3%
China 2196 - 1.5%
LAST WEEK (April 11)
DJIA 16026 - 2.4%
S&P 500 1815 - 2.7%
NYSE 10280 - 2.3%
NASDAQ 3999 - 3.1%
NASD 100 3446 - 2.6%
Russ 2000 1111 - 3.6%
DJTransprts 7362 - 2.8%
DJ Utilities 534 + 0.5%
XOI Oils 1,519 - 1.8%
Gold bull. 1,318 + 1.2%
GoldStcks 92.55 - 0.8%
Canada 14257 - 0.9%
London 6561 - 2.0%
Germany 9315 - 3.9%
France 4365 - 2.7%
Hong Kong 23003 + 2.2%
Japan 13960 - 7.3%
Australia 5423 - 0.1%
S. Korea 1997 + 0.5%
India 22628 + 1.2%
Indonesia 4816 - 0.8%
Brazil 51822 + 1.5%
Mexico 40377 - 0.5%
China 2230 + 3.5%
PREVIOUS WEEK (April 4)
DJIA 16412 + 0.6%
S&P 500 1865 + 0.4%
NYSE 10517 + 0.8%
NASDAQ 4127 - 0.7%
NASD 100 3539 - 0.9%
Russ 2000 1153 + 0.2%
DJTransprts 7570 + 1.6%
DJ Utilities 531 + 0.9%
XOI Oils 1,546 +2.5%
Gold bull. 1,303 + 0.8%
GoldStcks 93.30 - 0.1%
Canada 14393 + 0.9%
London 6695 + 1.2%
Germany 9695 + 1.1%
France 4484 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22510 + 2.0%
Japan 15063 + 2.5%
Australia 5428 + 1.0%
S. Korea 1988 + 0.4%
India 22359 + 0.1%
Indonesia 4857 + 1.9%
Brazil 51063 + 2.6%
Mexico 40598 + 1.4%
China 2155 + 0.8%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will see numerous important economic reports, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   There is More to the Economic Slowdown Than Just Weather

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website The next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

The Dangerous Myths of Wall Street

Thursday, April 17, 9:25 a.m.

Those selling stocks, bonds, mutual funds and related investment products have long recognized that busy part-time individual investors want and need things kept simple. Quick ‘sound bites’, brief stock tips, short and entertaining presentations.

So the popularity of slogans and myths that avoid complex explanations and analysis, yet seemingly get an important point across, is therefore understandable.

Unfortunately, far too many mislead and steer investors away from the truth.

As finance Professor Richard Thaler put it in his classic ‘Advances in Behavioral Finance’, “Wall Street needs investors who are irrational and woefully uninformed.”

Getting through the sound bites and marketing gimmicks to arrive at the truth can be quite difficult. That’s particularly true in these days when the line between truth, and simple repetition of unsupported myths, is blurred by the glut of self-appointed bloggers not required to engage in fact-checking before publishing. A couple of impressive sound bites picked up elsewhere and embellished is all that’s needed to convey financial knowledge.

Here are some of the misleading myths and slogans of Wall Street aimed at convincing investors to buy what they are sold, and simply hold through whatever comes along (no mention that it can involve periodic 30% to 50% losses, and seeing portfolios underwater for 15 or 20 years):

· The myth that ‘good stocks’ or ‘defensive stocks’ will hold up in market declines.

· The fantasy that ‘buy, hold – and pray’ is the way to go for retail investors.

· The illusion that professionals, insiders, and institutions are buy and hold investors.

· The lie that public investors aren’t smart enough to engage in asset allocation in a timely manner that will manage risk and keep profits.

· The market always comes back.

· The market cannot be timed.

· It’s not about ‘timing the market’, but ‘time in the market’.

· Technical analysis of markets is mumbo jumbo.

· Bull markets always climb a ‘wall of worry’.

This is the first of a series. I’ll have the truth, including the historical statistics about those myths and slogans, in the next few blog posts.  

To read my last weekend’s newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence This week’s column will be published late today or Saturday.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

An in-depth Markets Update is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website from yesterday. More Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog and the next blog on Saturday. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

We updated the sample issue of our newsletter on Monday to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

Another positive day, and triple-digit gain, as the short-term pattern that called for this be a positive week has worked out so far.  Volume was again almost 0.7 billion shares tradeto d on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 162 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.8%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,303.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.1%.

European Markets also closed up strongly yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.4%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 1.6%. France’s CAC closed up 1.4%. Belgium closed up 1.7%. Denmark closed up 1.9%. Finland closed up 1.1%. Greece close up 2.6%. Ireland closed up 1.6%. Italy closed up 3.4%. Netherlands closed up 0.9%. Norway closed up 0.9%. Portugal closed up 2.2%. Spain closed up 1.6%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.

Asian Markets closed up some last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.3%.

Australia closed up 0.6%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 1.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.5%. Japan closed unchanged. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are positive again this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.3%. The German DAX is up 0.8%. France’s CAC is up 0.4%. Belgium is up 0.3%. Denmark is up 1.9%. Finland is up 0.3%. Greece is up 2.3%. Ireland is down 0.3%. Italy is up 0.2%. Netherlands is up 0.2%. Norway is up 0.9%. Portugal is up 0.6%. Spain is up 0.2%. Switzerland is up 0.1%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.12 a barrel, at $103.88

Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,301.

Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s report was that Retail Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

Tuesday’s reports were that the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% in March. The core rate was also up 0.2%. The consensus forecast was for both to be up only 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell sharply, from 5.6 in march to 1.3 in April. And the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of home-builders, ticked up to 47 in April from 46 in March, missing the consensus forecast of a recovery to 49, and not showing much rebound after the big decline from 56 in February to 46 in March.

Yesterday’s reports were that New Housing Starts were up 2.8% in March, to 946,000 but significantly missing the consensus forecast for 990,000. In spite of the increase starts were still down 5.9% from the year earlier period, the biggest decline since April 2011. And permits for future starts fell 2.4%. But Industrial Production was up 0.7% in March, beating the consensus forecast of 0.5%, and February’s report was revised higher, from 0.7% originally reported to 1.2%. So production grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the first quarter. The  Fed’s ‘Beige Book’ .

This morning’s report was that new weekly unemployment claims ticked up 2,000 to 304,000 last week, better than the consensus forecast of 315,000. The four-week moving average declined by 4,7450 to 312,000. That is its lowest level since October, 2007 (whoops, that was when the stock market topped out into the 2007-2009 bear market).

Still to come is the Phila Fed Index, which will be released at 10 am.

The pre-open indicators have been flat all morning.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 15 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than the week-day reports, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

An in-depth Markets Update is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website from yesterday. More Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog and the next blog on Saturday. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

We updated the sample issue of our newsletter on Monday to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

And also if you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Will short-term market patterns continue to work out?

Tuesday, April 15, 9:25 a.m.

In Saturday’s post I noted that if the short-term patterns are to continue to work, this week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

And that the Nasdaq which has been leading the way down, is probably oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a. to produce an oversold bounce. That in turn could lead the market back up to produce a positive week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going.

So far, that happened yesterday. And the Nasdaq remains oversold short-term.

But the U.S. market is still looking precarious and iffy on intermediate-term charts.

041514e

Europe’s major markets are also looking precarious.

041514f

041514g

 

Good News on Retail Sales – But.

Retail sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised up from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

It seems to confirm that the winter’s problems were most likely weather related.

While that kept retail sales positive for the 1st quarter with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, it did not change the picture of sales being in a slowing trend since 2011.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog. An in-depth Markets Update will be in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A positive day as expected, with a triple-digit gain by the Dow. Volume almost 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 146 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.6%.

Gold closed up $9 an ounce at $1,327.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.3%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.1%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.9%. Finland closed down 0.9%. Greece close down 3.4%. Ireland closed down 0.9%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%. Norway closed up 0.8%. Portugal closed down 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.2%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed down 1.4%. Hong Kong closed down 1.6%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.6%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed up 1.0%. Taiwan closed up 0.7%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed to down some this morning.

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.2%. Denmark is down 0.2%. Finland is down 0.3%. Greece is down 1.0%. Ireland is down 0.3%. Italy is down 0.7%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.5%. Portugal is down 0.3%. Spain is up 0.4%. Switzerland is up 0.2%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.43 a barrel, at $103.62

Gold is down $32 an ounce at $1,296.

Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s report was that Retail Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

This morning’s reports so far are that the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% in March. The core rate was also up 0.2%. The consensus forecast was for both to be up only 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell sharply, from 5.6 in march to 1.3 in April.

Still to come is the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of home-builders. It will be released at 10 a.m.

The reports have had little effect on the pre-open indicators.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

And also if you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Are the market’s short-term patterns important for next week?

Saturday, April 12, 12:30 a.m.

The stock market has a history of short-term pattern tendencies that have been particularly noticeable in recent weeks.

If it continues it could tell us something about next week.

  • The ‘monthly strength period’ consists of the last two trading days of each month through the first four trading days of the following month. It has a strong tendency to be positive.
  • End of-quarter ‘window dressing’ usually produces a two or three day rally at the end of each quarter.
  • As readers know, I refer to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report as ‘The Big One’ because it most often results in a one to three-day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other.
  • The other side of the jobs report pattern is that whatever is the direction of that initial kneejerk reaction to the jobs report is usually reversed over the subsequent few days.
  • A lesser pattern, not quite as persistent, is that the week before the monthly options expirations week tends to be negative, while the week of the expirations tends to be positive.
    How have those patterns worked out lately?

The ‘monthly strength period’ at the end of March, combined with the end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’, produced a 223 point gain by the Dow from March 26 through April 6.

The market then responded to the Labor Department’s Jobs Report with a two-day triple-digit plunge, 159 points on the Friday of the report, and down another 166 points on Monday.

It then put in a valiant attempt this week to follow the rest of that pattern by reversing over the next couple of days. The Dow was up 10 points on Tuesday and 181 points on Wednesday (in reaction to the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting).

The next pattern to fall in place was the tendency for the week before options expirations week, which this past week was, to be negative.

To accomplish that, the Dow would have to overcome that big 181 point gain on Wednesday, which had it up for the week.

And sure enough, it plunged in triple-digit declines of 266 points on Thursday, and 143 points yesterday, to close down 2.4% for the week.

If the short-term patterns are to continue to work as precisely, next week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

As we all know, considerable damage was done to the market this week, the Nasdaq leading the way down.

041214e

But is it possible the Nasdaq is oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a., to produce an oversold bounce, that in turn would lead the market back up to produce a positive week next week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going?

If so, should it be used as an opportunity to sell?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A second straight triple-digit negative close, and no attempt to halt it going into the weekend, with the market closing on its low, and volume jumping up to 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed down 143 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.2%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.9%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed down $2 an ounce to $1,318, but up $15 an ounce for the week.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.8%.

Asian markets closed down in their last session of the week.

Asian markets closed down Thursday night (Friday in the U.S.), but mixed for the week. 

Among individual markets Thursday night:

Australia closed down 1.0%. China closed down 0.2%. Hong Kong closed down 0.8%. India closed down 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 1.0%. Japan closed down 2.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.6%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.5%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

European markets plunged again yesterday:

The Europe Dow closed down 1.2%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.2%. The German DAX closed down 1.5%. France’s CAC closed down 1.1%. Belgium closed down 1.0%. Greece closed down 2.6%. Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 1.1%. The Netherlands closed down 1.6%. Norway closed down 1.9%. Portugal closed down 1.3%. Spain closed down 1.3%. Switzerland closed down 1.5%.

Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (April 11)
DJIA 16026 - 2.4%
S&P 500 1815 - 2.7%
NYSE 10280 - 2.3%
NASDAQ 3999 - 3.1%
NASD 100 3446 - 2.6%
Russ 2000 1111 - 3.6%
DJTransprts 7362 - 2.8%
DJ Utilities 534 + 0.5%
XOI Oils 1,519 - 1.8%
Gold bull. 1,318 + 1.2%
GoldStcks 92.55 - 0.8%
Canada 14257 - 0.9%
London 6561 - 2.0%
Germany 9315 - 3.9%
France 4365 - 2.7%
Hong Kong 23003 + 2.2%
Japan 13960 - 7.3%
Australia 5423 - 0.1%
S. Korea 1997 + 0.5%
India 22628 + 1.2%
Indonesia 4816 - 0.8%
Brazil 51822 + 1.5%
Mexico 40377 - 0.5%
China 2230 + 3.5%
LAST WEEK (April 4)
DJIA 16412 + 0.6%
S&P 500 1865 + 0.4%
NYSE 10517 + 0.8%
NASDAQ 4127 - 0.7%
NASD 100 3539 - 0.9%
Russ 2000 1153 + 0.2%
DJTransprts 7570 + 1.6%
DJ Utilities 531 + 0.9%
XOI Oils 1,546 +2.5%
Gold bull. 1,303 + 0.8%
GoldStcks 93.30 - 0.1%
Canada 14393 + 0.9%
London 6695 + 1.2%
Germany 9695 + 1.1%
France 4484 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22510 + 2.0%
Japan 15063 + 2.5%
Australia 5428 + 1.0%
S. Korea 1988 + 0.4%
India 22359 + 0.1%
Indonesia 4857 + 1.9%
Brazil 51063 + 2.6%
Mexico 40598 + 1.4%
China 2155 + 0.8%
PREVIOUS WEEK (March 28)
DJIA 16323 + 0.1%
S&P 500 1857 - 0.5%
NYSE 10434 + 0.4%
NASDAQ 4155 - 2.8%
NASD 100 3571 - 2.2%
Russ 2000 1151 - 3.5%
DJTransprts 7451 - 0.9%
DJ Utilities 527 + 1.0%
XOI Oils 1,509 +2.2%
Gold bull. 1,293 - 2.9%
GoldStcks 93.36 - 5.2%
Canada 14260 - 0.5%
London 6615 + 0.9%
Germany 9587 + 2.6%
France 4411 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22065 + 2.9%
Japan 14696 + 3.3%
Australia 5376 + 0.4%
S. Korea 1981 + 2.4%
India 22339 + 2.7%
Indonesia 4768 + 1.4%
Brazil 49768 + 5.0%
Mexico 40048 + 0.1%
China 2137 - 0.3%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

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