Is a two-day market decline all that important?

Saturday, May 25, 11:30 a.m.

Gentle Ben made noises about beginning to take the punch bowl of stimulus away, and just the thought of it spooked markets around the world.

Well, for a day or two anyway.

At least it gives pundits and columnists something different to talk about and debate. For four weeks it has been boringly one-sided observations that the rally was apparently unstoppable, and passing along Wall Street’s reasons for believing this time is different, that the market need not worry about situations like the slowing economy and earnings, the high level of investor bullish sentiment, or even the overbought condition, because global central banks, including the Fed, were flooding their respective financial systems with endless amounts of excess liquidity, and that was going to continue at least into 2014.

Now after just two down-days, two-sided debates are all the rage again, ranging from ‘buy the dip’ to ‘this a major top’, and all potential scenarios in between.

It’s like two or three down-days in a row are so unusual they must mean something important.

But of course that is just against the backdrop of the previous four weeks of straight-up rally with almost no down days since the March-mid-April stumble.

The exciting four weeks of subsequent rally had all but wiped out the memory of the volatility and downward bias in the March to mid-April period, when two or three straight days down were common.

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It will take more than a day or two of negative market reaction to Bernanke’s remarks to determine the market’s direction. But it does have the overbought conditions and other negatives at least being considered again.

Investor Sentiment.

As we have been noting for several weeks, investor sentiment by most measurements had reached high levels of bullishness usually seen at rally, and even bull market, tops. They included the NAAIM Sentiment Index (National Association of Active Investor Managers), the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index (newsletter writers), the Consensus Inc. Sentiment Index, the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer, etc.

But the poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) was strangely out of synch with the rest, showing about an equal number of bulls and bears, a neutral reading.

It’s interesting that this week’s AAII poll, released Wednesday night, finally spiked up to its high bullishness zone, bullishness jumping to 49.0%, bearishness dropping to just 21.6%.

And the market’s big tumble took place the very next day, Thursday.

It was also interesting that an article in The Financial Times on Tuesday, talking of ‘dumb money’ versus ‘smart money’, reported that the rush of retail investors piling into the Japanese market, (chasing by far the hottest market since the November low) reached a record inflow the previous week, while hedge funds, who were timely with their heavy buying in November, have been taking profits and reducing their exposure.

And that record inflow by retail investors the previous week was just in time for Wednesday night’s big 7.3% plunge by the Nikkei.

But those are just meaningless observations.

As we continuously point out, investor sentiment does not provide buy or sell signals. It only provides indications of risk. It can remain at high levels of extreme bullishness (near tops) or extreme bearishness (near bottoms) for extended periods of time, and can continue to higher levels than were seen as the extremes in previous times. For instance, rallies have ended when the AAII bullish percentage reached 47 and 48%, but it reached 75% bullish in the euphoria of late 1999 just before the 2000-2002 crash, and 55% just before the 2007 bull market topped out. 

Only technical indicators provide actual buy and sell signals.

Japan is typical, but extreme, example of uncertainty for investors.

The Japanese market’s sharp stumble this week re-awakened realization that markets can move in both directions.

But take a look at how it provides fuel  for both bulls and bears if, for instance, only the overbought condition is considered, and not all factors.

For the bulls, as serious as a one-day 7.3% plunge sounds (the equivalent of a more than 1,000 point one-day plunge by the Dow), the plunge was not even enough to pull the Nikkei back to a normal retest of the support at its 50-day m.a., seemingly unimportant.

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But for the bears, the Nikkei is so unusually overbought long-term above its long-term 200-day (40 week) m.a. that even a 7% decline hardly shows on the long-term chart, illustrating the risk of the overbought condition, and why they are taking profits, and why chasing this rally could end vey badly.

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Plenty of fodder for both bulls and bears.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  There’s More To Consider Than Just The Fed!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and recommendations in the subscribers’  ‘Premium Content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth U.S. Market Signals and Recommendations from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A somewhat negative day in advance of the three-day weekend. Volume was light at just 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 8 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed unchanged. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.1%.

Gold closed down $8 an ounce at $1,384 (but up for the week).

Oil closed down $.32 a barrel at $93.93.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.1%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.3% Thursday night (Friday in Asia). Not much downside follow-through to its collapse the previous session.

Among individual Asian markets:

Australia closed down 1.5%. China closed up 0.6%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.7%. Japan closed up 0.9%, a very fractional bounce-back from the 7.3% plunge the previous night. Malaysia closed down 0.9%. New Zealand closed down 1.4%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed down 1.8%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed down 1.5%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed down again yesterday. The Europe Dow closed down only 0.1%. But among individual countries; The London FTSE closed down 0.6%. The German DAX closed down 0.6%. France’s CAC closed down 0.3%. Belgium closed down 0.2%. Finland closed up 0.1%. Greece closed down 0.3%. Ireland closed up 0.1%. Italy closed down 0.7%. The Netherlands closed down 0.2%. Spain closed down 1.0%. Switzerland closed unchanged. Russia closed down 1.4%.

Global markets for the week.

First negative week since April 19. In the U.S. the resilience of the Dow masked larger declines for the majority of stocks and indexes.

THIS WEEK (May 24)
DJIA 15303 - 0.3%
S&P 500 1649 - 1.0%
NYSE 9442 - 1.4%
NASDAQ 3459 - 1.1%
NASD 100 2991 - 1.2%
Russ 2000 984 - 1.2%
DJTransprts 6395 - 2.4%
DJ Utilities 499 - 3.4%
XOI Oils 1,397 - 0.7%
Gold bull. 1,384 + 2.0%
GoldStcks 100.58 + 3.2%
Canada 12667 + 0.4%
London 6654 - 1.0%
Germany 8305 - 1.1%
France 3956 - 1.1%
Hong Kong 22618 - 2.0%
Japan 14612 - 3.5%
Australia 4964 - 3.8%
S. Korea 1973 - 0.7%
India 19704 - 2.9%
Indonesia 5155 + 0.2%
Brazil 56407 + 2.5%
Mexico 40521 - 3.1%
China 2395 + 0.3%
LAST WEEK (May 17)
DJIA 15354 + 1.6%
S&P 500 1666 + 2.0%
NYSE 9576 + 1.4%
NASDAQ 3498 + 1.8%
NASD 100 3028 + 1.6%
Russ 2000 996 + 2.2%
DJTransprts 6549 + 2.7%
DJ Utilities 516 + 0.6%
XOI Oils 1,407 + 2.1%
Gold bull. 1,357 - 6.2%
GoldStcks 97.49 - 10.2%
Canada 12613 + 0.2%
London 6723 + 1.5%
Germany 8398 + 1.5%
France 4001 + 1.2%
Hong Kong 23082 - 1.0%
Japan 15138 + 3.6%
Australia 5159 - 0.6%
S. Korea 1986 + 2.2%
India 20286 + 1.0%
Indonesia 5145 + 0.8%
Brazil 55050 unchgd
Mexico 41802 + 0.2%
China 2389 + 1.6%
PREVIOUS WEEK (May 10)
DJIA 15118 + 1.0%
S&P 500 1633 + 1.2%
NYSE 9442 + 1.1%
NASDAQ 3436 + 1.7%
NASD 100 2981 + 1.3%
Russ 2000 975 + 2.2%
DJTransprts 6375 + 2.5%
DJ Utilities 514 - 3.0%
XOI Oils 1,378 - 0.6%
Gold bull. 1,446 - 1.6%
GoldStcks 108.52 + 0.8%
Canada 12589 + 1.2%
London 6624 + 1.6%
Germany 8278 + 1.9%
France 3953 + 1.1%
Hong Kong 23321 + 2.8%
Japan 14607 + 6.7%
Australia 5191 + 1.7%
S. Korea 1944 - 1.1%
India 20082 + 2.6%
Indonesia 5105 + 3.6%
Brazil 55042 - 0.7%
Mexico 41741 - 2.0%
China 2351 + 1.9%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened week, as well as having a light schedule of important economic reports. But they will include Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Mfg Index, Chicago PMI, the next revision of 1st quarter GDP growth, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  There’s More To Consider Than Just The Fed!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and recommendations in the subscribers’  ‘Premium Content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth U.S. Market Signals and Recommendations from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Bernanke got what he wanted with talk – now what.

Thursday, May 23, 9:25 a.m.

As I said in Tuesday’s post, “The Fed is in a difficult corner right now. With the economic slowdown continuing, the Fed has to be hesitant about actually beginning to remove the punchbowl. But at the same time, it wouldn’t want to take a chance on keeping the spigot open too long and creating another bubble in the stock market. So the Fed is more likely to resort to talk again, and indicate that it is preparing to dial back the stimulus, in hopes of taking some of the exuberance out of investor euphoria. But I seriously doubt it will actually do anything but talk as long as the economic recovery continues to stumble. Historically, it has accomplished its goals through talk, hints, and promises much more often than it has actually taken action.”

And I believe that is just what we saw yesterday.

Bernanke threw a scare into investors, not just in the U.S. but globally, with talk of perhaps beginning to dial back the stimulus as soon as in upcoming FOMC meetings.

So what’s next?

I believe the Fed would not mind seeing some of the exuberance and euphoria come out of global stock markets, which have been somewhat disconnected from the reality of slowing economies and earnings. The disconnect has been solely due to markets being convinced that central banks have their backs, and that the so-called ‘Bernanke Put’ remains in place.

But that the Fed will actually begin dialing back stimulus is probably an empty threat for now, an attempt to cool the market off some with talk. In each of the last three summers when the economic recovery stumbled, the Fed rushed in with more stimulus and it worked to recover the economy from the stumble and keep it going.

It’s very doubtful it would take the opposite approach this time and remove stimulus. That will not become a serious threat until the economy shows signs that it is recovering from the stumble.

But yesterday does bring an interesting new wrinkle into the situation.

Markets are likely to begin seeing any positive economic reports that show up, particularly in the areas of the Fed’s biggest concern, the employment picture, as negative for the market, since they would be taken as confirming that the Fed can and will begin removing stimulus and raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

A classic key downside reversal day.

As I tweeted to my Twitter followers yesterday, the day was shaping up to be a classic key downside reversal day.

The S&P 500 spiked up to an intraday high substantially higher than the previous day’s intraday high, and then reversed to the downside into negative territory. If it closed below the previous day’s intraday low that would complete the reversal. But it would take a close below 1,660 to do it. And it closed at 1,655.

But for it to potentially mean anything there has to be immediate follow through the next day.

And those global collapses are dramatic.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is an important hotline from 7:30 this morning, in addition to one from last night. And there is an in-depth ‘U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Recommendations’ report from late yesterday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

An ugly downside reversal day. The Dow was up 155 points in its initial reaction to Bernanke’s testimony before Congress, and then reversed sharply, and closed down 80 points. The rest of the market was considerably more negative than the Dow and S&P 500. Volume picked up significantly to almost 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 80 points or 0.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.9%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.9%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.6%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.6%.

Gold closed down $10 an ounce at $1,367.

Oil closed down $1.90 a barrel to $94.28.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.4%%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 1.5%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets were mostly positive yesterday. The overall Europe Dow closed up 0.4%. Among individual countries, London was up 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.4%. Italy closed up 0.7%. Portugal closed down 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.1%. Russia closed up 2.3%.

Most Asian Markets virtually collapsed last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 3.4%. The Japanese Nikkei closed down 6.8%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 2.0%. China closed down 1.2%. Hong Kong closed down 2.5%. India closed down 1.9%. Indonesia closed down 1.7%. Japan closed plunged 6.8%. Malaysia closed down 0.9%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. S. Korea closed down 1.2%. Singapore closed down 1.8%. Taiwan closed down 1.9%. Thailand closed down 1.5%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are plunging this morning. At the moment, the Europe Dow is down 2.2%. Among individual countries the London FTSE is down 2.0%. The German DAX is down 2.7%. France’s CAC is down 2.6%. Belgium is down 1.8%. Norway is down 1.5%. Portugal is down 1.4%. Spain is down 2.0%. Switzerland is down 2.8%. Italy is down 2.8%. Russia is down 3.3%.

Oil is down $1.54 a barrel at $92.73.

Gold is up $23 an ounce at $1,390.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

This week has a number of important economic reports that include the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s only report was not a positive. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators the Fed uses, worsened again in April, plunging from -0.23 in March to –0.53 in April. The 3-month moving average was also in negative territory, at –0.04. The Index is designed so that a 0 reading or above indicates trend growth, while a minus number indicates a slowing economy. A reading of -0.7 or below on the 3-month moving average (not close at this point) would indicate a recession is underway.

There were no reports scheduled for release Tuesday.

Yesterday’s report was that Existing-home sales were up 0.6% in April to an annualized rate of 4.97 million, falling a bit short of the consensus forecast of 5.0 million. But the big event and market-mover was Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before Congress and the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 23,000 last week, to 340,000. The four-week m.a. fell by 500 to 339,500, both numbers in line with forecasts. But the U.S. Markit PMI Mfg Index fell to 51.9 in May from 52.1 in April, while the FHFA Home Price Index showed home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% in March.

Still to come are New Home Sales, which will be released at 10 a.m.

Our Pre-Open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 110 points or so in the early going.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is an important hotline from 7:30 this morning, in addition to one from last night. And there is an in-depth ‘U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Recommendations’ report from late yesterday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 11 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

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  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.
  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Will the Fed Really Dial Back QE3 or Just Talk About It?

Tuesday, May 21, 9:25 a.m.

In April, as the economic reports were worsening and the stock market was sliding, the Fed quickly came out in its FOMC statement and subsequent interviews, to reassure markets that its QE3 bond-buying stimulus efforts were open-ended, that it could, and would, increase that bond-buying if necessary to provide still more liquidity into the financial system.

And its words had the desired effect. Although the economic reports continued as mostly negative surprises, the market came out of its funk, and with the aid of a stronger than expected jobs report, broke out to new highs three weeks ago, and has kept on going higher.

It’s interesting that now that investors are pumped again, that even though the economic reports continue to deteriorate, talk is now that the Fed could begin to dial back its bond-buying, begin to remove the stimulus punch-bowl.

Not likely. The Fed is in a bit of a difficult corner right now.

With the economic slowdown continuing, as evidenced by the continuing negative surprises in most of the economic reports, and earnings slowing, and major corporations warning of the slowdown continuing, the Fed would be hesitant to actually begin removing the punchbowl.

The QE bond-buying and easy money policies have not only been extremely important for 4 years now in keeping the recovery going, but the Fed had to step in with increases in QE in each of the last three years to rescue the economy from similar stumbles each summer.

So it’s very doubtful that this time, as the economy stumbles again, that the Fed would take the opposite approach to what worked the previous times, and begin to dial back QE. Not until it at least sees some signs of the economic stumble ending.

But at the same time, it wouldn’t want to take a chance on keeping the spigot open too long and be accused of creating another bubble in the stock market.

So if the stock market’s spike-up continues even as the basic driving forces of the market, the economy and earnings, deteriorate, the Fed will more likely resort to talk again, and indicate that it is preparing to dial back the stimulus, in hopes of taking some of the exuberance out of investors’ euphoria.

But I seriously doubt it will actually do anything but talk as long as the economic recovery continues to stumble. Historically, it has accomplished its goals through talk, hints, and promises much more often than it has actually taken action. But concerns about what the Fed might do is now topping the media debates.

Is commodity guru Jimmy Rogers just talking his book?

Legendary investor and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in an interview yesterday that he doesn’t see a problem for commodities, that their long bull market remains intact. He said, “I don’t see massive new supply coming into the market to keep prices down.”

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But Rogers knows better than anyone that there are two sides to the supply/demand equation that drives prices in any market. It’s not just massive new supplies coming into commodities that would drive prices lower. A slackening in demand, as in a slowing economy, has the same effect in skewing the supply/demand ratio to the side of lower prices.

On Saturday’s blog I noted that Rogers recently also said that while he expects gold’s ‘correction’ to continue for a while yet, he would “not start to be concerned that this is more than just a correction unless gold drops to $800 an ounce”.

As I noted Saturday, gold is already down $513 (27%) an ounce from its peak at $1900 in 2011, already officially in a bear market, not just a correction. At $800 it would be down 58%. I said I can’t believe he was quoted accurately, that it would have to be down 58% before he would be concerned. But the comments were repeated in numerous sources.

052113a

Rogers is not only the chairman of Rogers Holdings, but in 2011 launched a new commodities index fund, which he says focuses on the top companies in agriculture, mining, metals, and energy sectors, the Rogers Global Resources Equity Index fund.

Is it remotely possible that in these interviews saying he sees no problems in gold or commodities that he is engaging in typical Wall Street spin of ‘talking his book’?

Is it possible that perhaps he launched his mining and commodities fund in 2011 with just a tiny bit of poor timing, just about when both gold and commodities reached record peaks and rolled over into bear markets, and his investors might need some encouraging talk?

I don’t know. I’m just saying that it seems odd to me that he sees no problems yet.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Commodities’ report from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Recommendations’ report tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A mixed day on light volume, with only 0.65 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 19 points or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.4%.

Gold closed up $19 an ounce at $1,384.

Oil closed up $.42 a barrel to $96.71.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.6%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 0.1%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets mostly closed higher yesterday. The overall Europe Dow closed up 0.6%. Among individual countries, London was up 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.5%. Belgium closed up 0.3%. Italy closed down 0.6%. Portugal closed down 0.8%. Spain closed down 0.8%. Russia closed up 0.2%.

Most Asian Markets closed down last night.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.3%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed up 0.2%. Hong Kong closed down 0.5%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed down 0.5%. Japan closed up 0.1%. Malaysia closed up 0.6%. New Zealand closed down 0.2%. S. Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed unchanged.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are off earlier lows, still mostly down but still improving. At the moment, the Europe Dow is down 0.2%. Among individual countries the London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is down 0.2%. France’s CAC is down 0.4%. Belgium is down 0.6%. Norway is up 0.6%. Portugal is down 0.4%. Spain is down 0.8%. Switzerland is up down 0.3%. Italy is down 0.5%. Russia is up 1.2%.

Oil is down $.25 a barrel at $96.46.

Gold is down $18 an ounce at $1,365.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

This week will have a number of important economic reports that include the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s only report was not a positive. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators the Fed uses, worsened again in April, plunging from -0.23 in March to –0.53 in April. The 3-month moving average was also in negative territory, at –0.04. The Index is designed so that a 0 reading or above indicates trend growth, while a minus number indicates a slowing economy. A reading of -0.7 or below on the 3-month moving average indicates a recession is underway.

There are no reports scheduled for release today.

But as we’ve been saying lately the market doesn’t seem to care about economic reports anyway.

Our Pre-Open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are well off overnight lows, now pointing to the Dow being up 30 points or so at the open.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Commodities’ report from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Recommendations’ report tomorrow afternoon.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.
  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Stocks Still Poppin – Gold Still Droppin!

Saturday, May 17, 11:15 a.m.

Four straight weeks of stock market gains without even a minor pullback to retest the support at the 30-day m.a. again. In the 7th straight month of gains since the November low.

051813a

It does have a lot of scrambling going on to reverse previous opinions, and a lot of interesting observations.

Financial Times: “The equity market is putting disciplined investment approaches to the test. The adage ‘Don’t chase a rally’ is a core principle in investing. But such advice counts for little at the moment. After spending much of April unable to break through 1,600, the S&P has mainly been a one-way bet in May, rising an additional 4.4% to 1,670. All of which places both private and professional investors in a quandary. . . . In the current momentum driven market we are on the cusp of partying like its 1999, all the while flirting with the danger that when the music stops the consequences of having bought anywhere near the top are likely to be brutal and swift.”

Comstock Partners (Hedge Fund): “Although the Fed, so far, has been able to lift stock prices, it has failed to elevate the economy to a point where growth is self-sustaining despite over four years of extremely easy monetary policy. The headwinds from fiscal policy will actually intensify in the months ahead.

It is also noteworthy that the market is losing the important boost it has received from rapidly rising earnings.  Over the last four quarters earnings are up only 0.4% from the four prior quarters.  Given sluggish U.S. and global economic growth, we think that current estimates of 22% second half earnings growth are highly unrealistic.   Furthermore, the S&P 500 is now selling at 20 times cyclically-smoothed trailing GAAP earnings, at the very high end of the zone that was considered normal prior to the serial bubbles of the last decade and a half.

All in all, we believe that economic growth and corporate earnings will be highly disappointing in coming quarters and that investors will drop the pretense that the Fed can fix everything that ails the economy. Although Bernanke, himself, has been virtually begging for help from fiscal policy, it does not seem likely that he will get it anytime soon.  In our view, the risk of a substantial decline in the market outweighs the limited rewards from current levels.”

Reuters: “As the major indexes inch higher and higher to set record after record, many analysts are shrugging off previous pullback worries. . . As the market continues its upward move, some market participants are beginning to reverse opinions of it being a bubble to thoughts that it might rather be the start of a new bull market.”

Okay, I can agree that it isn’t a bubble, but the start of a new bull market? That’s an opinion I’ve seen frequently lately.

Doesn’t make sense to me. How can it be the beginning of a new bull market when the bull market that began in 2009 remains intact?

051813b

By the way, note how the S&P is not just unusually overbought short-term above its 30-day m.a., but even more so intermediate-term above its long-term 200-day (40-week) m.a.

But as I’ve been saying, an overbought condition is not a sell signal. Markets can just become more overbought. It takes a reversal of momentum and money-flows showing up in technical indicators. And while that seemed to be threating in April, it didn’t come to pass, and the consensus of our technical indicators remains on the Dec. 11 buy signal.

051813c

But we are still advising caution at this point and being alert for potential changes. Something just doesn’t smell right, and it involves not just the overbought condition, but the unusual bullish investor sentiment at a time when the economy and earnings are slowing.

Meanwhile:

Gold is still droppin’.

Like all its previous rally attempts since the October peak, gold’s most recent rally attempt off an oversold condition also ran into problems when it reached the resistance at the 30-day m.a.

051813e

But it’s now at an interesting juncture.

Another rally attempt from here would be with a potential double-bottom in place, while a break to new bear market lows would likely bring another dose of intense selling.

At the moment anyway, the consensus of the 35 intermediate-term technical indicators we use remains on the October 15 sell signal.

051813d

And it’s not encouraging for gold’s outlook that the gold mining stocks, which have been leading the way down, did break down to a new bear market low this week. 

051813f

I was surprised to see the comments of famed commodity trader Jimmy Rogers, who has been correctly very bullish for gold for years, that while he expects the ”correction” to continue for a while yet, he would “not start to be concerned that this is more than just a correction unless gold drops to $800 an ounce”.

Gold is already down $513 (27%) an ounce from its peak at $1900 in 2011, already officially in a bear market, not just a correction. At $800 it would be down 58%. I can’t believe he was quoted accurately, that it would have to be down 58% before he would be concerned. But the comments were repeated in numerous sources.

Investor Sentiment.

In recent blog posts I’ve pointed out the unusually high level of bullish investor sentiment, as measured by the NAAIM Sentiment Index (National Association of Active Investor Managers), the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index (newsletter writers), the Consensus Inc. Sentiment Index, etc., and record level of margin debt.

Here’s another one:

The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer, known as the CSFB Index, fell 11.4 points over the past two weeks – the largest decline on record – and is now at a one-year low of 21.73.

The indicator essentially tracks investors’ willingness to pay for downside protection with zero-premium collar trades that expire in three months, using S&P 500 index (.SPX) options.

"It’s unusual to see at these stock market levels that there are very few indications (based on options activity) that investors are expecting a pullback," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and recommendations in the subscribers’  ‘Premium Content’ area of this blog, we will have an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Commodities’ update on Monday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A very positive day to close out a very positive week. And volume picked up significantly to more than 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 121 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.9%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.0%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.9%.

Gold plunged another $32 an ounce at $1,354.

Oil closed up $.91 a barrel at $96.07.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.6%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 1.3%.

Asian markets mostly closed up in their last session of the week.

The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed up 0.4% Thursday night (Friday in Asia).

Among individual Asian markets:

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed up 1.4%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed up 1.3%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed down 0.8%. South Korea closed up 0.8%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed up 0.6%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed up again yesterday. The Europe Dow closed down 0.2%. But among individual countries; The London FTSE closed up 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.6%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece closed up 1.6%. Ireland closed up 0.2%. Italy closed up 0.4%. The Netherlands closed up 0.7%. Spain closed up 0.5%. Switzerland closed up 0.3%. Russia closed up 1.6%.

Global markets for the week.

Yet another positive week for stocks.

THIS WEEK (May 17)
DJIA 15354 + 1.6%
S&P 500 1666 + 2.0%
NYSE 9576 + 1.4%
NASDAQ 3498 + 1.8%
NASD 100 3028 + 1.6%
Russ 2000 996 + 2.2%
DJTransprts 6549 + 2.7%
DJ Utilities 516 + 0.6%
XOI Oils 1,407 + 2.1%
Gold bull. 1,357 - 6.2%
GoldStcks 97.49 - 10.2%
Canada 12613 + 0.2%
London 6723 + 1.5%
Germany 8398 + 1.5%
France 4001 + 1.2%
Hong Kong 23082 - 1.0%
Japan 15138 + 3.6%
Australia 5159 - 0.6%
S. Korea 1986 + 2.2%
India 20286 + 1.0%
Indonesia 5145 + 0.8%
Brazil 55050 unchgd
Mexico 41802 + 0.2%
China 2389 + 1.6%
LAST WEEK (May 10)
DJIA 15118 + 1.0%
S&P 500 1633 + 1.2%
NYSE 9442 + 1.1%
NASDAQ 3436 + 1.7%
NASD 100 2981 + 1.3%
Russ 2000 975 + 2.2%
DJTransprts 6375 + 2.5%
DJ Utilities 514 - 3.0%
XOI Oils 1,378 - 0.6%
Gold bull. 1,446 - 1.6%
GoldStcks 108.52 + 0.8%
Canada 12589 + 1.2%
London 6624 + 1.6%
Germany 8278 + 1.9%
France 3953 + 1.1%
Hong Kong 23321 + 2.8%
Japan 14607 + 6.7%
Australia 5191 + 1.7%
S. Korea 1944 - 1.1%
India 20082 + 2.6%
Indonesia 5105 + 3.6%
Brazil 55042 - 0.7%
Mexico 41741 - 2.0%
China 2351 + 1.9%
PREVIOUS WEEK (May 3)
DJIA 14973 + 1.8%
S&P 500 1614 + 2.0%
NYSE 9340 + 1.9%
NASDAQ 3378 + 3.0%
NASD 100 2944 + 3.7%
Russ 2000 954 + 2.0%
DJTransprts 6218 + 1.7%
DJ Utilities 529 - 0.5%
XOI Oils 1,386 + 3.2%
Gold bull. 1,469 + 0.7%
GoldStcks 107.67 + 1.3%
Canada 12438 + 1.8%
London 6521 + 1.5%
Germany 8122 + 3.9%
France 3912 + 2.7%
Hong Kong 22689 + 0.6%
Japan 13694 - 1.4%
Australia 5105 + 0.5%
S. Korea 1965 + 1.1%
India 19575 + 1.5%
Indonesia 4925 - 1.1%
Brazil 55455 + 2.2%
Mexico 42602 + 1.7%
China 2308 + 1.3%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will have a number of important economic reports that will include the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and recommendations in the subscribers’  ‘Premium Content’ area of this blog, we will have an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Commodities’ update on Monday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

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  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
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**** End of Today’s post*****

The Stream of Dismal Economic Reports Continues!

Thursday, May 16, 9:30.m.

I haven’t been remarking much lately about the several months of worsening economic reports that clearly indicate how the economy is stumbling again this year as we enter the summer months. What would be the point. Unlike the last three years, the stock market doesn’t seem to care this year.

But the negative surprises in the reports continue. The list was long in March and April, and continues in May.

Two weeks ago it was that Consumer Spending was up only 0.2% in March, the smallest gain since December. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index plunged from +7.4 in March to –15.6 in April. Its new orders index fell from +9.5 to –4.9. The Chicago PMI Index fell from 52.4 in March to 49.0 in April, its lowest level in in 3 1/2 years, while its index of new orders plunged from 45.0 to 40.6. The national ISM Mfg Index fell to 50.7 in April from 51.3 in March, remaining barely above the 50 level that separates expansion from recessionary contraction.

Since then it has been that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell into negative territory in May, falling from +3.1 in April to -1.4 in May. And nationally, Industrial Production fell 0.5% in April.

This morning it was updates from the two areas that had been providing some hope, housing and employment. And unfortunately they have joined the long list of negative surprises.

New housing starts plunged a huge 16.5% in April to an annual rate of 853,000, the lowest level since November. (Not that it bothers Wall Street or the market, with analysts focused instead on the 14.3% increase in permits for future starts).

And new weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly surged up by 32,000 last week to 360,000, the highest level in a month and a half. The consensus forecast was for only 330,000 claims. (But the focus is on the 4-week m.a. which rose only 1,250 to 339,250).

So the months-long string of negative reports continues to indicate the economy is stumbling, as it has in each of the last three summers.

In each of the last three years the result was double-digit declines by the S&P 500 of up to 21%, until each time the Fed rushed to the rescue with promises of another round of QE stimulus.

The market doesn’t seem at all concerned by the stumbling economy this time, repeatedly closing at new record highs.

But the economy is still slowing, and commodity prices, a bellwether for the economy, are still collapsing, as they did in each of the last three years.

051613b

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  It’s Still Fool’s Gold For A While Yet!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘Subscribers Premium Content’ area of his blog, the mid-week markets update from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A somewhat negative market in the early going that had the Dow down 40 points. But it recovered by mid-day, sold off again in the afternoon, but was rescued by last hour strength. Volume was light with fewer than 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 60 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.5%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.4%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.7%.

Gold plunged $27 an ounce to $1,396, breaking below the psychological ‘round number’ support at 1,400.

Oil closed up $.10 a barrel at 94.30.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.7%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets mostly closed higher yesterday in spite of the dismal reports that the eurozone recession worsened yet again in the first quarter. The overall Europe Dow closed down 0.2%. But among individual countries, London closed up 0.1%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Italy closed up 1.0%. Portugal closed up 1.0%. Spain closed up 1.3%. Russia closed down 0.5%.

Most Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed up 1.2%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.2%. Japan closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.8%. S. Korea closed up 0.8%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.9%. Thailand closed down 0.8%.

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To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: Updated market signals and charts, intermediate-term and short-term, Stock market overall and sectors, bonds, and gold.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning. The Europe Dow is down 0.1%. Among individual countries the London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is up 0.3%. France’s CAC is down 0.1%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Norway is up 0.2%. Portugal is down 0.5%. Spain is down 0.2%. Switzerland is down 0.3%. Italy is up 0.3%. Russia is down 0.1%.

Oil is up $.16 a barrel at $94.46.

Gold is plunging another $19 an ounce at $1,377.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

This week has a fairly heavy schedule of important economic reports including Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index, New Housing starts, Consumer Sentiment, and others. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were that Retail Sales were up slightly, 0.1%, in April. But that was better than the 0.6% decline that was the consensus forecast. And it was reported that business inventories were flat in March.

Tuesday’s only report was that the Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.6 to 92.1 in April, more than recovering the drop in March.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Producer Price Index fell 0.7% in April, the biggest drop in 3 years. The Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell into negative territory in May, falling from +3.1 in April to –1.4 in May. Industrial Production fell 0.5% in May. But the Housing Market Index, measuring the optimism of home-builders, rose to 44 in May from 41 in April, in line with the consensus forecast of 44. The index remains below the key level of 50 which would indicate that 50% of builders are optimistic. 

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims jumped by 32,000 last week to 360,000, while the 4-week m.a. rose only 1,250. The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in April. And new Housing Starts plunged 16.5% in April, while permiots for futures starts were up 14.3%.

Still to come is the Phila Fed Mfg Index, which will be released at 10 a.m.

But as we’ve been saying lately the market doesn’t seem to care about economic reports anyway.

Our Pre-Open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 20 points at the open, meaningless as to direction later.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  It’s Still Fool’s Gold For A While Yet!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘Subscribers Premium Content’ area of his blog, the mid-week markets update from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. and a hotline from last evening.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the weekdays, probably around 11:00 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.
  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

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