Is market at another short-term top?

Saturday, February 28, 12 noon.

Not seeming to care anything about economic reports, good or bad, and with the 4th quarter earnings reporting period ended, and Fed Chair Yellen’s anticipated Congressional testimony providing no surprises, the market stalled this week.

Was it just resting after three straight weeks of gains, or about to pull back and keep the months of short-term volatility and 5% pullbacks going?

Looks like the latter, unless the bullish euphoria that always accompanies Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders, released yesterday, and his usual appearances the next few days on financial networks, works its magic on investors.

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022815b

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022815d

What happened to the history of best/worst months?

For decades it has been quite dependable that December and January would be strong months. February has a history of being a negative month within the market’s six-month favorable season.

What has happened to that history lately?

The market was sideways to down in December, down sharply in January, and up sharply in February. Here comes March, which is historically a strong month. ???


Other Voices:

Albert Edwards, Societe Generales: “Investors are transfixed by the Fed and when it will tighten rates and can’t see the woods for the trees. The Fed’s focus on payrolls, a lagging indicator, is most perplexing but not unusual at this stage in the cycle. The reality is that the vast bulk of economic, as well as earnings, data (even outside the energy sector), has been simply dreadful."

Scott Krisiloff, CEO Avondale Asset Management: “There have been only two years since 1900 that the S&P Composite has risen despite weak earnings growth when it was already at a high P/E multiple, and had risen by a significant amount in the year before: 1997 and 1998.”

Peter Schiff, economist and CEO of EuroPacific Capital Inc.:”Oil prices were propped up by the Fed. So were home prices. So were stock prices. And if the Fed is not going to be there anymore, all the prices that were influenced by QE are going to come down. And since the U.S. recovery was a function of inflated asset prices, as these asset prices deflate, then the recession is going to return. And, of course, what is the government’s response? It’s going to be more QE. But the real issue is that the recession is part of the healing process. It’s part of what is necessary.”


To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Investors Are Mistakenly Assured By Two Shaky Generalities

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

A down day on increased volume of 0.85 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 81 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.2%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.1%.

Gold closed up $1 an ounce at $1,212 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.8%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.3%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.4%. China closed up 0.4%. Hong Kong closed down 0.3%. India closed up 1.7%. Indonesia closed down 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.1%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed down 0.7%. South Korea closed down 0.4%. Taiwan closed down 0.8%. Thailand closed down 0.4%.

European markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.1%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.8%. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Denmark closed up 0.8%. Finland closed up 0.1%. Greece closed down 2.7%.  Ireland closed up 1.4%. Italy closed up 0.8%. Netherlands closed up 0.3%. Norway closed down 0.6%. Portugal closed up 0.6%. Spain closed up 0.4%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.


Global markets for the week. 

A flat week in the U.S. after three straight positive weeks. A strong month of February.

THIS WEEK (Feb. 27)
DJIA 18132 -0.1%
S&P 500 2104 -0.3%
NYSE 11062 -0.4%
NASDAQ 4963 +0.2%
NASD 100 4440 -0.1%
Russ 2000 1233 +0.2%
DJTransprts 9024 -1.2%
DJ Utilities 594 -1.0%
XOI Oils 1,376 -0.9%
Gold bull. 1,212 +0.8%
GoldStcks 76.94 +3.6%
Canada 15234 +0.4%
London 6946 +0.5%
Germany 11401 +3.2%
France 4951 +2.5%
Hong Kong 24,823 -0.1%
Japan 18797 +2.5%
Australia 5898 +0.9%
S. Korea 1985 +1.2%
India 29220 -0.1%
Indonesia 5450 +0.9%
Brazil 51583 +0.7%
Mexico 44190 +1.5%
China 3468 +1.9%
LAST WEEK (Feb. 20)
DJIA 18140 +0.7%
S&P 500 2110 +0.7%
NYSE 11108 +0.6%
NASDAQ 4955 +1.3%
NASD 100 4443 +1.4%
Russ 2000 1231 +0.7%
DJTransprts 9131 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 600 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,388 -1.9%
Gold bull. 1,202 -2.2%
GoldStcks 74.28 -3.7%
Canada 15172 -0.6%
London 6915 +0.6%
Germany 11050 +0.8%
France 4830 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,832 +0.6%
Japan 18332 +2.3%
Australia 5845 +0.2%
S. Korea 1961 +0.2%
India 29231 +0.5%
Indonesia 5400 +0.5%
Brazil 51237 +1.2%
Mexico 43551 +1.1%
China 3402 +1.4%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Feb. 13)
DJIA 18019 +1.1%
S&P 500 2096 +2.0%
NYSE 11042 +1.8%
NASDAQ 4893 +3.1%
NASD 100 4384 +3.7%
Russ 2000 1223 +1.5%
DJTransprts 9034 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 594 -3.2%
XOI Oils 1,415 +3.1%
Gold bull. 1,229 -0.4%
GoldStcks 77.12 +0.3%
Canada 15264 +1.2%
London 6873 +0.3%
Germany 10963 +1.1%
France 4759 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,682 +0.1%
Japan 17913 +1.5%
Australia 5835 +1.1%
S. Korea 1957 +0.1%
India 29094 +1.3%
Indonesia 5374 +0.6%
Brazil 50635 +3.8%
Mexico 43072 +0.8%
China 3356 +4.2%


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be another important week for potential market-moving economic reports, including the ISM Mfg Index, auto sales, the ADP Monthly Jobs Report, Factory Orders, the U.S. Trade Deficit, the Labor Department’s Monthly Employment Report for February, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Investors Are Mistakenly Assured By Two Shaky Generalities

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, there is an in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Do earnings no longer matter – again?

Thursday, February 26, 9:25 a.m.

Back in 1998 and 1999, when warnings were widespread that the market was extremely overvalued, that the Price/Earnings ratio was much higher than at any previous market peak, Wall Street kept the party going by declaring that earnings no longer mattered, particularly for the tech sector and dotcoms. All that mattered was the Price/Sales ratio, and activity and sales for those companies were soaring.

This time around, normal methods of measuring market valuation, like the P/E ratio based on reported earnings, Shillers CAPE10 ratio of stock prices to inflation adjusted 10-year earnings,  Warren Buffett’s favorite; total market cap to GDP, the Tobin Q ratio of stock prices to replacement value of assets, etc., have shown for some time that the market is more overvalued than at all previous market peaks except the 2000 bubble.

But Wall Street has convinced investors that those methods of measuring market valuation no longer matter. All that matters as a valuation measurement is the P/E ratio based on Wall Street’s forward-looking estimates for the year ahead.

By keeping their year-ahead estimates high and only lowering quarterly estimates as each quarter’s earnings reporting period approached, and corporations provided guidance that their estimates for the quarter were too high, they made sure quarterly earnings would beat the estimates. And they would leave their long-term projections high to support a P/E ratio based on year-ahead estimates that showed the market to be fairly valued, not over-valued.

Okay. Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, that other methods of valuation no longer matter, only the P/E based on their forward earnings estimates matters.

Corporate earnings growth has been slowing dramatically, and as Barron’s reported last weekend, Wall Street is scrambling to cut its forward earnings estimates, in fact at the fastest pace since 2008.

As the market continues higher and their year ahead earnings estimates decline, thus raising the P/E ratio even by that dubious method, how can they now claim that the market is not significantly over-valued?

But the market does not seem to notice or care.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is a hotline from last evening and an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day ending mixed. Volume dropped back to under 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 15 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.2%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.6%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce, at $1,202.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.4%.


European Markets closed down some yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed unchanged. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France’s CAC closed down 0.1%. Belgium closed up 0.1%. Denmark closed up 0.9%. Finland closed unchanged. Greece closed down 1.6%.  Ireland closed up 0.2%. Italy closed down 1.0%. Netherlands closed down 0.3%. Norway closed up 0.4%. Portugal closed down 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed up 2.2%. Hong Kong closed up 0.5%. India closed down 0.9%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.9%. Malaysia closed up 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Singapore closed down 0.4%. Taiwan closed down 0.8%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.5%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.2%. The German DAX is up 0.3%. France’s CAC is down 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.4%. Denmark is up 0.9%. Finland is up 0.1%. Greece is down 2.5%. Ireland is up 0.2%. Italy is up 0.7%. Netherlands is up 0.2%. Norway is up 0.2%. Portugal is up 1.0%. Spain is up 0.4%. Switzerland is up 0.1%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down 2.0% at $49.96 a barrel.

Gold is up $11 an ounce at $1,217 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a big week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, the next revision to 4th quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were that the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index improved from negative –0.07 in December to + 0.13 in January. The more important 3-month moving average barely moved, ticking down from +0.34 in December to +0.33 in January. Existing Home Sales declined 4.9% in January.

Tuesday’s reports were that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed home prices ticked up only 0.1% in December, which had them up 4.5% for the year. Consumer Confidence declined from 103.8 in January to 96.4 in February. And the Richmond Fed Mfg Index declined from 6.0 in January to 0 in February.

Yesterday’s reports were that New Home Sales were unchanged in January at an annualized rate of 481,000, better than the consensus forecast for a decline to 467,000. And the EIA Petroleum Report showed that crude oil supplies continue to rise, coming in at 8.2 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 20, more than double the consensus estimate for 3.7 million barrels. .

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims jumped by 31,000 last week to 313,000. The four-week m.a. was up 11,500 to 294,500. As expected, the Consumer Price Index was down 0.7% in January, the third straight monthly decline. But the core rate, with the cost of food and energy removed, was up 0.2%. And Durable Goods Orders were up 2.8% in January, better than the 0.5% consensus forecast, with core capital goods, indicating business investment, surging up 9.5%.

Our pre-open indicators have become somewhat more negative since the reports.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 20 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is a hotline from last evening and an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) from yesterday in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Which way will Fed Chair Yellen send the market?

Tuesday, February 24, 9:25 a.m.

Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee begins at 10 o’clock this morning. The Fed Chair’s testimony has a history of moving the market short-term in one direction or the other.

This is a heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports. But the market didn’t seem to care about yesterday’s report that existing home sales fell again in January, to their lowest level in nine months.

Then there is the market’s short-term technical situation, not providing much of a clue.

The Nasdaq and NYSE Composite are quite overbought above their 50-day moving averages, to levels that usually bring a short-term pullback.

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022415j

But other indexes, particularly the blue chips, are not overbought to any significant degree.

022415k

022415l

It looks like Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress may be the deciding factor on short-term direction.

On a potential positive note, the next short term market pattern is the ‘monthly strength period’, which is due to begin Thursday and to run through the following Thursday.

So we shall see.

John Wooden was a great basketball coach. 

In my weekend column, and a few other places, I credited John Wooden for the wisdom that ”Failure to prepare is tantamount to preparing to fail” and identified him as a great football coach.

I love the way one subscriber corrected me, asking, “Is John Wooden the football coach any relation to John Wooden, UCLA’s great basketball coach?” Funny, subtle, yet effective.

John Wooden (1910-2010) was indeed not a football coach, but the famed UCLA basketball coach, nicknamed the ‘Wizard of Westwood’, the first person ever enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame in two categories, as a player and coach. As head coach of UCLA he won ten NCAA national championships in a 12-year period. Football? Umh, no.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A fairly quiet day ending mixed. Volume dropped back to 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 23 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed unchanged. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed unchanged. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.7%.

Gold closed unchanged at $1,202 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.2%.


European Markets closed up yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.1%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.7%. Belgium closed up 0.9%. Denmark closed up 1.1%. Finland closed up 0.6%. Greece closed down 0.3%.  Ireland closed up 1.8%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed up 1.1%. Norway closed down 0.1%. Portugal closed up 0.5%. Spain closed up 1.0%. Switzerland closed up 1.0%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed down 0.4%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.3%. Japan closed up 0.7%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed down 0.6%. South Korea closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed up 0.5%. Taiwan closed up 1.1%. Thailand closed up 0.3%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.1%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.1%. France’s CAC is down 0.1%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Denmark is sown 1.1%. Finland is up 0.3%. Greece is surging up 7.0%. Ireland is down 0.6%. Italy is up 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.5%. Norway is down 0.2%. Portugal is up 0.7%. Spain is up 0.3%. Switzerland is down 0.1%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up 0.4% at $49.66 a barrel.

Gold is down $3 an ounce at $1,198 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a big week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, the next revision to 4th quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index improved from negative –0.07 in December to + 0.13 in January. The more important 3-month moving average barely moved, ticking down from +0.34 in December to +0.33 in January. Existing Home Sales declined 4.9% in January.

This morning’s only report so far is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed home prices ticked up only 0.1% in December, which had them up 4.5% for the year.

Still to come are Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed Mfg Index, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.

Our pre-open indicators have been basically flat all night, awaiting Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress this morning?


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 20 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There will be an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.)


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

The Market Week Ahead.

Saturday, February 21, 12:15 noon.

The U.S. market traded in a very narrow range on low volume this past week until yesterday. Investors seemed to stand back, not willing to bet either way on market direction.

That’s understandable given the magnitude of the uncertainties.

Is the obvious slowing of the U.S. economy over the last three months the beginning of something worse, especially since the two main drivers of the economy, housing and autos, were part of it?

If the economy continues to slow what will it mean for apparently already slowing earnings growth, and already high market valuations, as in P/E ratios?

Are the global reports on inflation potentially heading down into a deflationary spiral, now including the U.S., in spite of central bank goals of creating rising inflation, just temporary as the Fed assures us?

The plunge in oil prices will play a big part in the inflation picture. Has oil bottomed, or was the rally of the last few weeks just a temporary bounce off the short-term oversold condition beneath its 50-day m.a., before the downside resumes?

022115a

Are the forecasts of $30 oil realistic? We know it plunged to $40 in 2008, and $20 in 2001. But that was during recessions. 

022115b

Is the market’s upside ‘breakout’ for real? The S&P 500 tried several times to get above 2,100 earlier in the week but failed. It was only able to move above it successfully yesterday on news that the EU agreed to give Greece a four-month extension on its debt agreement. So three months and the concern comes back?

And has the market really ‘broken out’ of its sideways volatility anyway?

The S&P 500 seems to be saying yes.

022115f

But:

022115c

022115d

022115e

We should be getting answers to some of these questions next week.

Was declining inflation just a blip? We’ll get the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Were the disappointing housing reports a temporary situation? Existing home sales Monday, Home prices Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday, pending home sales Friday.

Is the economic slowdown real? The Chicago Fed National Business Index (A composite of 85 economic indicators the Fed considers most important) on Monday, Dallas Fed Index, Monday, Richmond Fed Index Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders Thursday, the next revision of 4th quarter GDP, and Chicago PMI on Friday.

Are retail sales going to continue to disappoint? The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Will markets really believe the euro-zone’s economic problems are over because one of the problems, the Greek debt deadline, has been kicked four months down the road? 

Next week is shaping up as one of the most important in quite some time. 


Other Voices:

Alexis Tsipras, Prime Minister of Greece: “We won a battle, but not the war. The difficulties lie ahead of us.”

Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management: “Despite the BOJ and the ECB picking up the QE baton from the Fed and committing to purchase $80 billion and $65 billion of government bonds each month respectively, deflation reemerges as the primary economic challenge in the developed world, GDP growth stalls, and global interest rates continue to fall.”

Chuck Mikolajczak, Reuters: “Equities are poised for a bout of renewed volatility as investors watch the economy and the Federal Reserve for signs of policy changes and economic strength.”

Ben Levisohn, Barron’s: “Nothing Can Stop Us Now: Record closes for Dow, S&P 500 as Nasdaq edges closer to dot-com highs.”


To read my latest newspaper column click here: Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market..

A positive day to new highs for some indexes. Volume picked up to 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 154 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.7%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.1%.

Gold closed down $5 an ounce at $1,202 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.3%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.4%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed down 0.8%. Indonesia closed up 0.2%. Japan closed up 0.4%. Malaysia closed unchanged. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed up 0.6%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed up 0.2%.

European markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed 0.2%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.4%. The German DAX closed up 0.4%. France’s CAC closed down 0.1%. Belgium closed unchanged. Denmark closed up 2.1%. Finland closed up 0.2%. Greece closed down 0.3%.  Ireland closed down 0.5%. Italy closed up 0.2%. Netherlands closed up 0.1%. Norway closed up 0.1%. Portugal closed up 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.3%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.


Global markets for the week. 

Three straight positive weeks. Can we break the jinx since November of no more than three straight weeks in one direction or the other before it reverses?

THIS WEEK (Feb. 20)
DJIA 18140 +0.7%
S&P 500 2110 +0.7%
NYSE 11108 +0.6%
NASDAQ 4955 +1.3%
NASD 100 4443 +1.4%
Russ 2000 1231 +0.7%
DJTransprts 9131 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 600 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,388 -1.9%
Gold bull. 1,202 -2.2%
GoldStcks 74.28 -3.7%
Canada 15172 -0.6%
London 6915 +0.6%
Germany 11050 +0.8%
France 4830 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,832 +0.6%
Japan 18332 +2.3%
Australia 5845 +0.2%
S. Korea 1961 +0.2%
India 29231 +0.5%
Indonesia 5400 +0.5%
Brazil 51237 +1.2%
Mexico 43551 +1.1%
China 3402 +1.4%
LAST WEEK (Feb. 13)
DJIA 18019 +1.1%
S&P 500 2096 +2.0%
NYSE 11042 +1.8%
NASDAQ 4893 +3.1%
NASD 100 4384 +3.7%
Russ 2000 1223 +1.5%
DJTransprts 9034 +1.1%
DJ Utilities 594 -3.2%
XOI Oils 1,415 +3.1%
Gold bull. 1,229 -0.4%
GoldStcks 77.12 +0.3%
Canada 15264 +1.2%
London 6873 +0.3%
Germany 10963 +1.1%
France 4759 +1.5%
Hong Kong 24,682 +0.1%
Japan 17913 +1.5%
Australia 5835 +1.1%
S. Korea 1957 +0.1%
India 29094 +1.3%
Indonesia 5374 +0.6%
Brazil 50635 +3.8%
Mexico 43072 +0.8%
China 3356 +4.2%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Feb. 6)
DJIA 17824 +3.9%
S&P 500 2055 +3.1%
NYSE 10847 +2.9%
NASDAQ 4744 +2.4%
NASD 100 4228 +1.9%
Russ 2000 1205 +3.4%
DJTransprts 8932 +3.3%
DJ Utilities 614 -3.7%
XOI Oils 1,372 +5.2%
Gold bull. 1,234 -3.8%
GoldStcks 76.92 -3.1%
Canada 15083 +2.8%
London 6853 +1.5%
Germany 10846 +1.4%
France 4691 +1.9%
Hong Kong 24,679 +0.7%
Japan 17648 -0.2%
Australia 5774 +4.0%
S. Korea 1955 +0.3%
India 28717 -1.6%
Indonesia 5342 +1.0%
Brazil 48792 +4.0%
Mexico 42715 +4.3%
China 3222 -4.2%


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In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be big week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, the next revision to 4th quarter GDP, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my latest newspaper column click here: Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts, signals, and analysis (stocks, gold, bonds), in the subscribers area of today’s blog, the in-depth Markets Update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


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**** End of Today’s post*****

Interesting short-term junctures in most markets.

Thursday, February 19, 9:35 a.m.

Has oil reached the end of its rally after running into resistance at its 50-day m.a.?

021915a

Has gold found support at the lower limit of its rising trading band?

021915b

Has the U.S. dollar reached an important spiked-up peak or just taking another rest?

021915c

Is the stock market breaking out of its two-month sideways trading band to the upside, or is the ‘breakout’ by the S&P 500 just another false peak out above a peak before another short-term pullback?

 021915d

We will just continue to follow our indicators, but there are some interesting situations.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals (stock market, gold, bonds) in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.) there is a hotline from last evening and an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) there from yesterday.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A quiet day with little volatility. The Dow was down as much as 60 points, but recovered at close down just 17 points, or 0.1%. Volume was about average at 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 17 points or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg surged up 2.2%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,200 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.6%.


European Markets closed up yesterday.

The London FTSE closed unchanged. But the German DAX closed up 0.6%. France’s CAC closed up 1.0%. Belgium closed up 0.6%. Denmark closed up 1.8%. Finland closed up 0.7%. Greece closed up 1.1%.  Ireland closed up 1.8%. Italy closed up 1.9%. Netherlands closed up 0.8%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed up 1.3%. Spain closed up 1.0%. Switzerland closed up 0.6%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.3%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed up 0.5%. Indonesia closed up 1.0%. Japan closed up 0.4%. Malaysia closed unchanged. New Zealand closed down 0.3%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.6%. Taiwan closed up 0.4%. Thailand closed down 0.2%.

Subscribers Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html



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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.1%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is up 0.1%. France’s CAC is up 0.6%. Belgium is up 0.7%. Denmark is up 0.3%. Finland is up 0.1%. Greece is up 4.3%. Ireland is up 0.4%. Italy is up 0.6%. Netherlands is up 0.6%. Norway is down 0.8%. Portugal is down 0.4%. Spain is up 0.9%. Switzerland is up 0.8%.


This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is plunging 4.1% at $50.63 a barrel.

Gold is up $16 an ounce at $1,216 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened but busy week for economic reports, including Housing Starts, the Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on the holiday Monday.

Tuesday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index declined from 9.95 to 7.78 in February, still above 0 and positive, but weaker than expected. The Housing Market Index, which measures the optimism of home-builders, fell from 57 in January to 55 in February, a four-month low. And the Commerce Department reported that E-Commerce Retail Sales were up 14.6% over the same quarter last year, as they continue to take sales from traditional retailers. However, internet sales still account for only 6.7% of total retail sales.

Yesterday’s reports were that new Housing Starts declined 2% in January. Permits for single-family homes fell 6.7%. And the Producer Price Index declined a record 0.8% in January. The core rate, which excludes the costs of food and energy declined 0.3%. The Fed reported that Industrial Production was up 0.2% in January, missing the consensus forecast of 0.4%.

This morning’s reports so far are that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 21,000 last week to 283,000. The four-week m.a. declined 6,500 to 283.250.

Still to come are the PMI Mfg Index at 9:45 am, the Phila Fed Index and Leading Economic Indicators, both at 10 a.m., and the EIA petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Pre-open indicators are somewhat negative.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 50 points or so in the early going.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Is Gold’s Pullback Another Buying Opportunity-

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals (stock market, gold, bonds) in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.) there is a hotline from last evening and an in-depth markets report (stock market, gold, bonds) there from yesterday.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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