The Dangerous Myths of Wall Street

Thursday, April 17, 9:25 a.m.

Those selling stocks, bonds, mutual funds and related investment products have long recognized that busy part-time individual investors want and need things kept simple. Quick ‘sound bites’, brief stock tips, short and entertaining presentations.

So the popularity of slogans and myths that avoid complex explanations and analysis, yet seemingly get an important point across, is therefore understandable.

Unfortunately, far too many mislead and steer investors away from the truth.

As finance Professor Richard Thaler put it in his classic ‘Advances in Behavioral Finance’, “Wall Street needs investors who are irrational and woefully uninformed.”

Getting through the sound bites and marketing gimmicks to arrive at the truth can be quite difficult. That’s particularly true in these days when the line between truth, and simple repetition of unsupported myths, is blurred by the glut of self-appointed bloggers not required to engage in fact-checking before publishing. A couple of impressive sound bites picked up elsewhere and embellished is all that’s needed to convey financial knowledge.

Here are some of the misleading myths and slogans of Wall Street aimed at convincing investors to buy what they are sold, and simply hold through whatever comes along (no mention that it can involve periodic 30% to 50% losses, and seeing portfolios underwater for 15 or 20 years):

· The myth that ‘good stocks’ or ‘defensive stocks’ will hold up in market declines.

· The fantasy that ‘buy, hold – and pray’ is the way to go for retail investors.

· The illusion that professionals, insiders, and institutions are buy and hold investors.

· The lie that public investors aren’t smart enough to engage in asset allocation in a timely manner that will manage risk and keep profits.

· The market always comes back.

· The market cannot be timed.

· It’s not about ‘timing the market’, but ‘time in the market’.

· Technical analysis of markets is mumbo jumbo.

· Bull markets always climb a ‘wall of worry’.

This is the first of a series. I’ll have the truth, including the historical statistics about those myths and slogans, in the next few blog posts.  

To read my last weekend’s newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence This week’s column will be published late today or Saturday.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

An in-depth Markets Update is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website from yesterday. More Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog and the next blog on Saturday. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

We updated the sample issue of our newsletter on Monday to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

Another positive day, and triple-digit gain, as the short-term pattern that called for this be a positive week has worked out so far.  Volume was again almost 0.7 billion shares tradeto d on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 162 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.8%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,303.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.1%.

European Markets also closed up strongly yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.4%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 1.6%. France’s CAC closed up 1.4%. Belgium closed up 1.7%. Denmark closed up 1.9%. Finland closed up 1.1%. Greece close up 2.6%. Ireland closed up 1.6%. Italy closed up 3.4%. Netherlands closed up 0.9%. Norway closed up 0.9%. Portugal closed up 2.2%. Spain closed up 1.6%. Switzerland closed up 0.5%.

Asian Markets closed up some last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.3%.

Australia closed up 0.6%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 1.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.5%. Japan closed unchanged. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are positive again this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.3%. The German DAX is up 0.8%. France’s CAC is up 0.4%. Belgium is up 0.3%. Denmark is up 1.9%. Finland is up 0.3%. Greece is up 2.3%. Ireland is down 0.3%. Italy is up 0.2%. Netherlands is up 0.2%. Norway is up 0.9%. Portugal is up 0.6%. Spain is up 0.2%. Switzerland is up 0.1%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.12 a barrel, at $103.88

Gold is down $2 an ounce at $1,301.

Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s report was that Retail Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

Tuesday’s reports were that the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% in March. The core rate was also up 0.2%. The consensus forecast was for both to be up only 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell sharply, from 5.6 in march to 1.3 in April. And the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of home-builders, ticked up to 47 in April from 46 in March, missing the consensus forecast of a recovery to 49, and not showing much rebound after the big decline from 56 in February to 46 in March.

Yesterday’s reports were that New Housing Starts were up 2.8% in March, to 946,000 but significantly missing the consensus forecast for 990,000. In spite of the increase starts were still down 5.9% from the year earlier period, the biggest decline since April 2011. And permits for future starts fell 2.4%. But Industrial Production was up 0.7% in March, beating the consensus forecast of 0.5%, and February’s report was revised higher, from 0.7% originally reported to 1.2%. So production grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the first quarter. The  Fed’s ‘Beige Book’ .

This morning’s report was that new weekly unemployment claims ticked up 2,000 to 304,000 last week, better than the consensus forecast of 315,000. The four-week moving average declined by 4,7450 to 312,000. That is its lowest level since October, 2007 (whoops, that was when the stock market topped out into the 2007-2009 bear market).

Still to come is the Phila Fed Index, which will be released at 10 am.

The pre-open indicators have been flat all morning.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 15 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than the week-day reports, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

An in-depth Markets Update is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website from yesterday. More Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog and the next blog on Saturday. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday.

Non-Subscribers:

We updated the sample issue of our newsletter on Monday to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

And also if you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Will short-term market patterns continue to work out?

Tuesday, April 15, 9:25 a.m.

In Saturday’s post I noted that if the short-term patterns are to continue to work, this week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

And that the Nasdaq which has been leading the way down, is probably oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a. to produce an oversold bounce. That in turn could lead the market back up to produce a positive week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going.

So far, that happened yesterday. And the Nasdaq remains oversold short-term.

But the U.S. market is still looking precarious and iffy on intermediate-term charts.

041514e

Europe’s major markets are also looking precarious.

041514f

041514g

 

Good News on Retail Sales – But.

Retail sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised up from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

It seems to confirm that the winter’s problems were most likely weather related.

While that kept retail sales positive for the 1st quarter with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, it did not change the picture of sales being in a slowing trend since 2011.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog. An in-depth Markets Update will be in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website tomorrow.

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A positive day as expected, with a triple-digit gain by the Dow. Volume almost 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 146 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.6%.

Gold closed up $9 an ounce at $1,327.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.3%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.3%.

European Markets closed mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.1%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.3%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed down 0.9%. Finland closed down 0.9%. Greece close down 3.4%. Ireland closed down 0.9%. Italy closed up 0.6%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%. Norway closed up 0.8%. Portugal closed down 0.3%. Spain closed down 0.2%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed up 0.5%. China closed down 1.4%. Hong Kong closed down 1.6%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.6%. Malaysia closed up 0.2%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.2%. Singapore closed up 1.0%. Taiwan closed up 0.7%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed to down some this morning.

The London FTSE is down 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.5%. France’s CAC is up 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.2%. Denmark is down 0.2%. Finland is down 0.3%. Greece is down 1.0%. Ireland is down 0.3%. Italy is down 0.7%. Netherlands is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.5%. Portugal is down 0.3%. Spain is up 0.4%. Switzerland is up 0.2%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.43 a barrel, at $103.62

Gold is down $32 an ounce at $1,296.

Economic Reports:

This week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s report was that Retail Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the consensus forecast of a gain of 0.8%. And February’s gain was revised from the originally reported 0.3% to 0.7%.

This morning’s reports so far are that the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% in March. The core rate was also up 0.2%. The consensus forecast was for both to be up only 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index fell sharply, from 5.6 in march to 1.3 in April.

Still to come is the Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of home-builders. It will be released at 10 a.m.

The reports have had little effect on the pre-open indicators.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Non-Subscribers:

We have updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a more recent issue you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter

And also if you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Are the market’s short-term patterns important for next week?

Saturday, April 12, 12:30 a.m.

The stock market has a history of short-term pattern tendencies that have been particularly noticeable in recent weeks.

If it continues it could tell us something about next week.

  • The ‘monthly strength period’ consists of the last two trading days of each month through the first four trading days of the following month. It has a strong tendency to be positive.
  • End of-quarter ‘window dressing’ usually produces a two or three day rally at the end of each quarter.
  • As readers know, I refer to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report as ‘The Big One’ because it most often results in a one to three-day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other.
  • The other side of the jobs report pattern is that whatever is the direction of that initial kneejerk reaction to the jobs report is usually reversed over the subsequent few days.
  • A lesser pattern, not quite as persistent, is that the week before the monthly options expirations week tends to be negative, while the week of the expirations tends to be positive.
    How have those patterns worked out lately?

The ‘monthly strength period’ at the end of March, combined with the end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’, produced a 223 point gain by the Dow from March 26 through April 6.

The market then responded to the Labor Department’s Jobs Report with a two-day triple-digit plunge, 159 points on the Friday of the report, and down another 166 points on Monday.

It then put in a valiant attempt this week to follow the rest of that pattern by reversing over the next couple of days. The Dow was up 10 points on Tuesday and 181 points on Wednesday (in reaction to the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting).

The next pattern to fall in place was the tendency for the week before options expirations week, which this past week was, to be negative.

To accomplish that, the Dow would have to overcome that big 181 point gain on Wednesday, which had it up for the week.

And sure enough, it plunged in triple-digit declines of 266 points on Thursday, and 143 points yesterday, to close down 2.4% for the week.

If the short-term patterns are to continue to work as precisely, next week, the monthly options expirations week, would be positive.

As we all know, considerable damage was done to the market this week, the Nasdaq leading the way down.

041214e

But is it possible the Nasdaq is oversold enough short-term beneath its 50-day m.a., to produce an oversold bounce, that in turn would lead the market back up to produce a positive week next week, and keep the string of short-term patterns going?

If so, should it be used as an opportunity to sell?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A second straight triple-digit negative close, and no attempt to halt it going into the weekend, with the market closing on its low, and volume jumping up to 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed down 143 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.0%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.2%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.9%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.1%.

Gold closed down $2 an ounce to $1,318, but up $15 an ounce for the week.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.8%.

Asian markets closed down in their last session of the week.

Asian markets closed down Thursday night (Friday in the U.S.), but mixed for the week. 

Among individual markets Thursday night:

Australia closed down 1.0%. China closed down 0.2%. Hong Kong closed down 0.8%. India closed down 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 1.0%. Japan closed down 2.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.6%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed down 0.5%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

European markets plunged again yesterday:

The Europe Dow closed down 1.2%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.2%. The German DAX closed down 1.5%. France’s CAC closed down 1.1%. Belgium closed down 1.0%. Greece closed down 2.6%. Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 1.1%. The Netherlands closed down 1.6%. Norway closed down 1.9%. Portugal closed down 1.3%. Spain closed down 1.3%. Switzerland closed down 1.5%.

Global markets for the week. 

THIS WEEK (April 11)
DJIA 16026 - 2.4%
S&P 500 1815 - 2.7%
NYSE 10280 - 2.3%
NASDAQ 3999 - 3.1%
NASD 100 3446 - 2.6%
Russ 2000 1111 - 3.6%
DJTransprts 7362 - 2.8%
DJ Utilities 534 + 0.5%
XOI Oils 1,519 - 1.8%
Gold bull. 1,318 + 1.2%
GoldStcks 92.55 - 0.8%
Canada 14257 - 0.9%
London 6561 - 2.0%
Germany 9315 - 3.9%
France 4365 - 2.7%
Hong Kong 23003 + 2.2%
Japan 13960 - 7.3%
Australia 5423 - 0.1%
S. Korea 1997 + 0.5%
India 22628 + 1.2%
Indonesia 4816 - 0.8%
Brazil 51822 + 1.5%
Mexico 40377 - 0.5%
China 2230 + 3.5%
LAST WEEK (April 4)
DJIA 16412 + 0.6%
S&P 500 1865 + 0.4%
NYSE 10517 + 0.8%
NASDAQ 4127 - 0.7%
NASD 100 3539 - 0.9%
Russ 2000 1153 + 0.2%
DJTransprts 7570 + 1.6%
DJ Utilities 531 + 0.9%
XOI Oils 1,546 +2.5%
Gold bull. 1,303 + 0.8%
GoldStcks 93.30 - 0.1%
Canada 14393 + 0.9%
London 6695 + 1.2%
Germany 9695 + 1.1%
France 4484 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22510 + 2.0%
Japan 15063 + 2.5%
Australia 5428 + 1.0%
S. Korea 1988 + 0.4%
India 22359 + 0.1%
Indonesia 4857 + 1.9%
Brazil 51063 + 2.6%
Mexico 40598 + 1.4%
China 2155 + 0.8%
PREVIOUS WEEK (March 28)
DJIA 16323 + 0.1%
S&P 500 1857 - 0.5%
NYSE 10434 + 0.4%
NASDAQ 4155 - 2.8%
NASD 100 3571 - 2.2%
Russ 2000 1151 - 3.5%
DJTransprts 7451 - 0.9%
DJ Utilities 527 + 1.0%
XOI Oils 1,509 +2.2%
Gold bull. 1,293 - 2.9%
GoldStcks 93.36 - 5.2%
Canada 14260 - 0.5%
London 6615 + 0.9%
Germany 9587 + 2.6%
France 4411 + 1.7%
Hong Kong 22065 + 2.9%
Japan 14696 + 3.3%
Australia 5376 + 0.4%
S. Korea 1981 + 2.4%
India 22339 + 2.7%
Indonesia 4768 + 1.4%
Brazil 49768 + 5.0%
Mexico 40048 + 0.1%
China 2137 - 0.3%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened week, with the U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but will see numerous important economic reports, including Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the Fed’s Beige Book, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Market is Too Dependent on Hopes That Await Evidence

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

Non-Subscribers:

Check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy !

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Are Safe Havens Providing a Warning on Stocks?

Thursday, April 9, 9:25 a.m.

So far the stock market has gone nowhere in 2014, the Dow down 0.8%, the S&P 500 up just 1.2%, and the Nasdaq up only 0.2% for the year so far.

041014e

However, the safe havens of bonds and gold have moved the other way. Even after its pullback in March, gold is still up 9.7% for the year so far.

 041014d

It’s a similar situation with U.S. Treasury bonds.

Like gold, bonds hit a new low at year-end, exactly as the stock market reached its record high. And like gold, bonds have been rallying since.

The 20-year bond etf TLT, is up 7% year-to date.

041014d

Gold and bonds were moving opposite to the stock market right up to year-end. They reached a new low exactly as the stock market reached a new high. They continued to move opposite to stocks by rallying in January as the stock market sold off in its January correction.

Does the fact that they have held their January gains and moved higher, even as the stock market returned to its year-end high, indicate that the safe havens are warning that stocks will be in trouble going forward?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Markets Update’, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term from yesterday in in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website And an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Tuesday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A big rally, the Dow gaining 181 points, in reaction to the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. Volume at 0.68 billion shares on the up-day was less than the more than 0.8 billion shares on the big down days on Friday and Monday.

The Dow closed up 181 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.4%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.6%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.2%.

Gold closed up $2 an ounce at $1,306.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.4%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed down 0.5%.

European Markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.4%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 1.2%. Finland closed down 0.2%. Greece close down 0.5%. Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed up 0.2%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%.  Norway closed up 1.0%. Portugal closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

Australia closed up 0.3%. China closed up 1.4%. Hong Kong closed up 1.5%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed down 3.2%. Japan closed unchanged. Malaysia closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed up 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.5%. Singapore closed down 0.2%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.6%.

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For Street Smart Report subscribers only.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.4%. The German DAX is up 0.3%. France’s CAC is up 0.2%. Belgium is up 0.1%. Denmark is down 0.1%. Finland is up 0.1%. Greece is down 0.1%. Ireland is up 0.6%. Italy is down 0.1%. Netherlands is up 0.2%. Norway is up 0.1%. Portugal is up 0.1%. Spain is down 0.5%. Switzerland is up 0.4%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $.30 a barrel, at $103.30

Gold is up $12 an ounce at $1,318.

Economic Reports:

This week has almost no important reports, but they do include the Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was the Small Business Optimism Index, which ticked up from 91.4 in February to 93.4 in March, but remained below its January level.

Yesterday’s only ‘report’ was the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, which caused a sizable spike-up in the market.

This morning’s only report is that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 32,000 last week to 300,000, a seven-year low. The four-week moving average fell by 4,750 to 316,250, its second lowest level since the end of the recession in 2009. 

The report had no impact on the pre-open indicators, which have been hovering around flat to down fractionally. 

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 10 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the weekdays, probably around 12 noon.

To read my newspaper column from last weekend click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth ‘Markets Update’, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term from yesterday in in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website And an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ report from Tuesday.

Non-Subscribers:

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  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
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  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
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Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Time For Another Short-Term Market Bounce?

Tuesday, April 8, 9:25 a.m.

So far in 2014 the market has gone nowhere in either direction. So the neutral outlook of our intermediate-term indicators since February has been fairly correct.

The market was down in January but recovered in February. It experienced up and down volatility in March but moved only sideways. And the going nowhere market continues as we enter the 2nd week of the 2nd quarter.

Year to date: Dow: –2.0%    S&P 500: unchanged   Nasdaq: –2.3%

Short-term.

The ‘monthly strength period’ and end-of-quarter ‘window dressing’ came and went on schedule and produced their typical brief rally.

Then the market responded to Friday’s monthly jobs report in the typical fashion we told you to expect, a triple-digit one to three-day move by the Dow, this time to the downside.

The volatility in both directions did nothing to improve the cautionary look in the short-term charts. The end of month bump last week came at a timely point, just in time to prevent the trendline support from giving way.

However, now the two straight down days, Friday and yesterday, did close the S&P 500 just below its 50-day m.a. and the trendline support yesterday. But no real damage done.

040814d

With the sell-off continuing in the previously high-flying tech stocks, the Nasdaq’s short-term chart is looking particularly ugly.

040814e

However, it is short-term oversold beneath its 50-day m.a., and the short-term indicators have reached their short-term oversold zones.

Time for another short-term bounce?

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

Stock market, gold, and bonds, short-term, intermediate-term and long-term in your ‘premium content’ area of this blog.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A second straight triple-digit decline by the Dow, and on increased volume again of 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 166 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 closed down 1.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.0%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.9%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 1.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.4%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,299.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

The 20-yr bond etf TLT closed up 0.6%.

European Markets also plunged quite sharply yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 1.0%.

Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 1.1%. The German DAX closed down 1.9%. France’s CAC closed down 1.1%. Belgium closed down 0.7%. Denmark closed down 1.6%. Finland closed down 1.4%. Greece close down 0.5%. Ireland closed down 1.3%. Italy closed down 0.8%. Netherlands closed down 0.8%.  Norway closed down 1.4%. Portugal closed down 0.7%. Spain closed down 0.7%. Switzerland closed down 1.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed up 1.9%. Hong Kong closed up 1.0%. India closed down 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed down 1.4%. Malaysia closed down 0.4%. New Zealand closed down 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.9%.

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To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the premium content area this morning: The U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down again this morning.

The London FTSE is down 1.0%. The German DAX is down 0.9%. France’s CAC is down 0.9%. Belgium is down 1.2%. Denmark is down 1.4%. Finland is down 0.6%. Greece is down 1.1%. Ireland is down 2.0%. Italy is down 1.7%. Netherlands is down 0.8%. Norway is down 0.7%. Portugal is down 2.3%. Spain is down 1.6%. Switzerland is down 0.1%

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.86 a barrel, at $101.30

Gold is up $12 an ounce at $1,311.

Economic Reports:

This week will see almost no important reports, but they will include the Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only report is the Small Business Optimism Index, which ticked up from 91.4 in February to 93.4 in March, but remained below its January level.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 10 points or so at the open.

I’ll be back with the next post Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

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