Gold is nearing a critical point again.

Tuesday, November 25, 9:25 a.m.

The consensus of the 35 intermediate-term technical indicators we use remains on the sell signal for gold.

112514c

But gold again became oversold beneath its 20-week m.a. and has been attempting to rally again.

The oversold condition shows more clearly on the short-term charts.

The short-term rally attempt has gold back up at the potential resistance at its 50-day m.a.

112514d

Will it break through this time? Are the monetary moves by China (cutting interest rates), and the president of the European Central Bank promising aggressive QE bond-buying, both aimed at creating some inflation in their economies, sufficient support for a continuing gold rally?

Whoops! That’s all the time for free stuff. Have to get on the premium content for subscribers.

I’ll be back Thursday morning, (Thanksgiving Day in the U.S., but business as usual most everywhere else), at 9:25 a.m.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets (Stocks, Gold, Bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A positive day, more so for the speculative issues than the blue chips. Volume was just under 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 7 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.9%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.8%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,196 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.1%.

European Markets gave up early gains to close mixed yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.2%. Among individual countries:

London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.5%. France’s CAC closed up 0.5%. Belgium closed up 0.3%. Denmark closed up 0.7%. Finland closed up 1.2%. Greece closed down 0.5%.  Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Netherlands closed down 0.1%. Norway closed up 0.2%. Portugal closed up 0.2%. Spain closed up 1.2%. Switzerland closed down 0.2%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.5%. China closed up 1.4%. Hong Kong closed down 0.2%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed down 0.4%. Japan closed up 0.3%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.4%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed down 0.1%. Thailand closed up 0.4%.


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up again this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.2%. The German DAX is up 1.1%. France’s CAC is up 0.7%. Belgium is up 1.0%. Denmark is up 0.3%. Finland is up 0.4%. Greece is down 0.4%. Ireland is up 0.6%. Italy is up 1.1%. Netherlands is up 0.6%. Norway is up 0.3%. Portugal is up 0.3%. Spain is up 1.2%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $.34 a barrel, at $76.51

Gold is up $1 an ounce at $1,198 an ounce.


This week’s Economic Reports:

This week, a holiday-shortened week, is a heavy week for U.S. economic reports crowded into the first three days, including a revision to 3rd quarter GDP, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Chicago Fed’s National Business Activity Index fell to 0.14 in October from 0.29 in September. The more important 3-month moving average fell to negative 0.1 in October from positive 0.12 in September. The index is a composite average of 85 economic indicators the Fed believes are most indicative of the economy. When the 3-month m.a. is above + 0.7, continued growth is indicated. When it drops beneath negative 0.7 it indicates a recession is likely underway. And the Markit PMI Services Sector Index ticked down to 56.3 in November from 57.1 in October, missing the consensus forecast for an uptick to 57.3. But the Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index came in at 10.5 for November, unchanged from October’s reading. The consensus forecast was for a tick down to 9.0.

This morning’s reports so far are the scheduled revision to 3rd quarter GDP. It was revised up to 3.9% growth from the previously reported 3.5%. However, in a separate report, the Commerce Department reported that corporate profit growth slowed sharply in the third quarter, to an annualized rate of 2.1% from 8.4% growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the FHFA Home Price Index showed home prices little changed in September, as did the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed home prices ticked down 0.3%. Still to come is Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m.


Our Pre-open Indicators:

The pre-open indicators, already fractionally positive, improved some after the economic reports, but not as much as they might have in response to the positive revision in 3rd quarter GDP growth.

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 40 points or so in the early going.


I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning (Thanksgiving Day in the U.S., but business as usual most everywhere else), at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there will be an in-depth Markets (Stocks, Gold, Bonds) tomorrow in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

A Typical Year’s Return for the Market in a Month.

Saturday, November 22, 12 noon.

It was just about a month ago that the market had given up all of its gains for the year.

And now in just over a month, the S&P 500 has gained 13.3% from its low on October 15, and so is up 12.1% for the year.

Hurray! Yahoo! The market’s favorable season and our buy signal is off to a great start.

Can the market hold those gains and make more?

Favorable seasonality typically runs from October to May or June. We are in the three-month period of November, December, and January, which has the history of most often being the most positive three month period each year.

But not always, as a glance at what happened in January this year indicates.  

112214a

And is the market not just a tad overbought short-term above 50-day m.a.’s, with short-term technical indicators looking precarious?

112214b

It begs the question, how can investor sentiment and confidence be so high when the risk of at least a short-term pullback seems so obvious?

Only a very tiny percentage of investors look at charts. Most listen only to the always bullish forecasts of Wall Street and its media cheerleaders.

But we continue to look at charts and technical indicators, short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term. They are more than slightly helpful in cutting through the crap.


Other Voices:

David Lebovitz, global strategist, JP Morgan Funds:It’s tough for me to wrap my head around the next big move being lower. Some people aren’t comfortable with current levels, but fundamentals remain strong."

Henry Blodget, Business Insider.com:  “Stocks are now more expensive than at any time in history, with the brief (and very temporary) exceptions of 1929 and 2000. . . . To be crystal clear, there is only one way that stocks will keep rising from this level and stay permanently above this level. That is if it really is "different this time," and all the historically valid valuation measures are no longer relevant.

It is possible that it is different this time. It is not likely, however. And one thing to keep in mind as you listen to everyone explain why it’s different this time is that one of the things everyone does when stocks get this expensive is attempt to explain the high prices (and justify even higher ones) by looking for reasons why it’s different this time.

That’s what most of us did in 1999 and 2000. For a while, we seemed "right," and we were heroes because of it. But then, suddenly, without much warning, we were drastically, violently wrong. And we — or me, at least — learned that searing lesson that I referred to above: That it’s almost never "different this time."

J Lyons Fund Management: “Everyone knows that, as a whole, the U.S. stock market is overbought. At the moment it doesn’t even matter what duration one is talking about, short, intermediate or long-term. . . . Suffice it to say, the stock market is extended. Can it stay extended? The past few years prove that it can. They also prove, in our view, that the intermediate-term is the best time frame to focus on. . . . I will only leave you with this: After reaching a similar overbought level in 1998, the market continued higher for another 20 months or so. So it is possible that the market continues higher unimpeded. However, looking historically, that period was an anomaly. If you are willing to bet on it happening again, go for it. If not, you may consider adopting measures to aid in managing risk.”


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is an important hotline from yesterday morning and the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.


U.S. market yesterday.

A rally day on high volume, but a downside reversal in the afternoon.

The Dow was up 175 points at mid-day in an exciting rally, but then sold off 125 points in the afternoon and was up only 50 points, until buy programs came in that boosted it to a gain of 91 points at the close. The Nasdaq was up 1.2% by mid-day, but then sold off in the afternoon and was down fractionally by mid-day, before rallying back to close up fractionally (0.2%).

It did look like sellers are anxious to come in at these levels. With all the buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon, volume for the day jumped to over 1.0 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 91 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.5%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.8%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.4%.

Gold closed up $9 an ounce to $1,200 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.8%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.6%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.6%.

Australia closed down 0.2%. China closed up 1.4%. Hong Kong closed up 0.4%. India closed up 1.0%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan closed up 0.3%. Malaysia closed down 0.6%. New Zealand closed down 0.6%. Singapore closed up 0.9%. South Korea closed up 0.4%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed up 0.7%.

European markets surged up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.5%.

The London FTSE closed up 1.1%. The German DAX closed up 2.6%. France’s CAC closed up 2.7%. Belgium closed up 1.3%. Denmark closed up 1.0%. Finland closed up 2.3%. Greece closed up 3.7%. Ireland closed up 1.7%. Italy closed up 3.9%. Netherlands closed up 1.6%. Norway closed up 1.1%. Portugal closed up 2.5%. Spain closed up 3.0%. Switzerland closed up 1.0%.


Global markets for the week. 

A mixed week globally. Big gains in Europe, Brazil & Mexico. Not as much in the U.S., and losses in much of Asia. Resource-rich Canada had a nice week on the bounce in oil. 

THIS WEEK (Nov. 21)
DJIA 17810 +1.0%
S&P 500 2063 +1.2%
NYSE 11025 +1.3%
NASDAQ 4712 +0.5%
NASD 100 4251 +0.6%
Russ 2000 1172 - 0.1%
DJTransprts 9094 +0.4%
DJ Utilities 596 +1.7%
XOI Oils 1,485 +3.3%
Gold bull. 1,200 +0.9%
GoldStcks 73.77 +4.2%
Canada 15111 +1.8%
London 6750 +1.4%
Germany 9732 +5.2%
France 4347 +3.4%
Hong Kong 23437 -2.7%
Japan 17357 -0.8%
Australia 5292 -2.6%
S. Korea 1964 +1.0%
India 28334 +1.0%
Indonesia 5112 +1.2%
Brazil 56084 +8.3%
Mexico 44633 +2.9%
China 2603 +0.3%
LAST WEEK (Nov. 14)
DJIA 17634 +0.4%
S&P 500 2039 +0.4%
NYSE 10880 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4688 +1.2%
NASD 100 4224 +1.5%
Russ 2000 1173 unchg
DJTransprts 9061 +1.3%
DJ Utilities 586 -2.8%
XOI Oils 1,438 -2.4%
Gold bull. 1,189 +1.1%
GoldStcks 70.82 +2.6%
Canada 14843 +1.0%
London 6654 +1.3%
Germany 9252 -0.4%
France 4202 +0.3%
Hong Kong 24087 +2.3%
Japan 17490 +3.6%
Australia 5433 - 1.6%
S. Korea 1945 +0.3%
India 28046 +0.6%
Indonesia 5049 +1.2%
Brazil 51772 -2.7%
Mexico 43371 -2.8%
China 2595 +2.5%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Nov. 7)
DJIA 17573 +1.1%
S&P 500 2031 +0.6%
NYSE 10864 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4632 +0.1%
NASD 100 4160 +0.1%
Russ 2000 1173 unchg
DJTransprts 8949 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 603 +1.0%
XOI Oils 1,473 -0.8%
Gold bull. 1,176 +0.4%
GoldStcks 69.04 +6.4%
Canada 14690 +0.5%
London 6567 +0.3%
Germany 9291 -0.4%
France 4189 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,550 -1.9%
Japan 16880 +2.9%
Australia 5522 +0.3%
S. Korea 1939 -1.3%
India 27868 Unchd
Indonesia 4987 -2.0%
Brazil 53222 -2.6%
Mexico 44614 -0.9%
China 2532 -0.1%


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For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week, a holiday-shortened week, will be a heavy week for U.S. economic reports crowded into the first three days, including a revision to 3rd quarter GDP, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.


To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

There is an important hotline from yesterday morning and the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday, is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.


Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Global Economic Picture Worsens Further.

Thursday, November 20, 9:25 a.m.

The Markit PMI Indexes for November are out for a number of countries this morning, and almost all were worse than the consensus forecasts.

These reports from some of America’s largest trading partners are not good news for the U.S. Just three weeks ago it was reported that the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly surged up 7.6% in September, on a big drop in exports to trading partners Europe, China, and Japan.

From the looks of these November PMI reports the export situation for the U.S. has probably worsened since that trade deficit report for September. 

This morning’s reports show that in the euro-zone, the overall PMI Index fell to 51.4 in November, a 16-month low. The PMI Mfg Index fell to 50.4, while the PMI Services Index fell to 51.3. All three are still above the 50 demarcation that separates expansion from recessionary contraction, but just barely. Leading indicators look like the picture will not improve anytime soon since the new orders index fell below 50.

It isn’t just the small emerging markets of the euro-zone, but its largest economies.

Germany’s PMI fell from 51.4 in October to 50.0 in November, a 16-month low. In France, the PMI Index, already in contraction below 50, at 48.5 in October, fell further, to 47.6 in November.

In China, the PMI Mfg Index fell to a six-month low of 50.0 in November from an already worrisome 50.4 in October.

In Japan, which just reported that its economy unexpectedly declined officially into a recession with its 3rd quarter GDP negative for the second straight quarter, the PMI Index ticked down to 52.1 from 52.4 in October.

Can U.S. consumers pick up the slack from declining export sales?

Other Voices: 

Jeremy Grantham, CEO GMO International Wealth Management firm: “My personal fond hope and expectation is still for the market to run deep into bubble territory, which starts at 2,250 on the S&P 500 in our data, before crashing, as it always does. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help.”

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Yet another quiet non-volatile day, at least for the blue chips. The Dow closed unchanged. Volume was average at just over 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 2 points, not measureable as a percentage. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.5% The Russell 2000 closed down 1.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed unchanged.

Gold closed down $14 an ounce at $1,182 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.6%.

European Markets  closed mixed yesterday.

The London FTSE closed down 0.2%. The German DAX closed up 0.2%. France’s CAC closed up 0.1%. Belgium closed up 0.3%. Denmark closed up 0.5%. Finland closed down 0.4%. Greece surged up 4.2%.  Ireland closed up 1.1%. Italy closed up 0.1%. Netherlands closed up 0.2%. Norway closed up 0.3%. Portugal closed down 0.1%. Spain closed down 0.5%. Switzerland closed up 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed mostly down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.9%. China closed up 0.1%. Hong Kong closed down 0.1%. India closed up 0.1%. Indonesia closed down 0.7%. Japan closed up 0.1%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed down 0.6%. Taiwan closed up 1.3%. Thailand closed down 0.6%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down quite sharply this morning.

The Europe Dow is down 0.8%. The Stoxx Europe 600 is down 0.7%.

The London FTSE is down 0.7%. The German DAX is down 0.7%. France’s CAC is down 1.2%. Belgium is down 0.8%. Denmark is down 0.3%. Finland is down 0.1%. Greece is down 0.2%. Ireland is down 0.1%. Italy is down 1.4%. Netherlands is down 0.5%. Norway is down 0.6%. Portugal is down 1.2%. Spain is down 1.9%. Switzerland is down 0.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $0.26 a barrel, at $74.76

Gold is up $9 an ounce at $1,191 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a fairly heavy week for U.S. economic reports, including Industrial Production, the Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. . To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Monday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index improved from 6.2 in October to 10.2 in November, just a tick below the consensus forecast for 10.5. But national Industrial Production unexpectedly declined 0.1% in October, versus the consensus forecast of a rise of 0.2%.

Tuesday’s reports were the Producer Price Index, which unexpectedly rose by 0.2% in October. The consensus forecast was for a decline of 0.1% due to declining oil and energy prices. The Housing Market Index, measuring homebuilder sentiment, improved from 54 in October to 58 in November, its highest level in 9 years, when home prices and sales were in the last bubble.

Yesterday’s report was that new housing starts fell 2.8% in October led by a 15.5% decline in volatile multi-unit apartments. Starts for single family homes increased by 4.2%.

This morning’s reports so far are that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 2,000 to 291,000 last week. The four-week m.a. ticked up by 1,750 to 287,500. And the Consumer Price Index was flat in October, versus the consensus forecast for a fractional decrease of 0.1%. The core rate, which excludes the cost of food and energy, was up 0.2%.

Still to come are the PMI Mfg Index (9:45 am), and the Phila Fed’s Mfg Index, Existing Home Sales, and Leading Economic Indicators, which will be released at 10 a.m.

The early morning indicators have been somewhat negative all night and remain so on the back of global market declines.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 70 points or so in the early going.

I’ll be back with the next post on Saturday morning, as usual later than on the week-days, probably around 12 noon.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from yesterday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Where did the volatility go?

Tuesday, November 18, 9:25 a.m.

Until mid-October, this year had been a year of unusual volatility.

Just a month ago I was noting the wild volatility of 18 triple-digit closes by the Dow in 24 trading days, 7 to the upside, 11 to the downside. Ten of those triple-digit moves were more than 200 points, and as much as 334 points, in one direction or the other. And that didn’t count the wild intraday volatility of several hundred points from low to high, or high to low, even on days when the close was not triple-digits.

But over the last month it has been all to the upside almost in a straight line.

111814a

And now, as MarketWatch is pointing out this morning, “The S&P 500 has logged five straight sessions without a daily price change of more than 0.1%. That ties the record for the most ever, dating back to 1928, according to investment strategist Walter Murphy.”

Walter Murphy chimed in with a tweet saying, “The other three times the S&P had such a string of low volume, it was at or near an intermediate-term top – 1956, 1965, 1969.”

Japan is now in a recession. 

The economy of the world’s 3rd largest economy is now officially in another recession.

Japan’s GDP growth unexpectedly plunged to negative 1.6% on an annualized basis in the 3rd quarter, after a serious contraction of 7.3% in the 2nd quarter. It is being blamed primarily on the increased national sales tax instituted in April, when the tax was raised from 5% to 8%.

In reaction to the news that his nation is now back in recession, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says the government will delay the next tax increase scheduled for October, 2015, for an additional 18 months.

Other Voices: 

Bloomberg News: “JP Morgan Chase told clients to dump U.S. equities in favor of their European counterparts. The brokerage firm cut its rating on U.S. stocks to underweight, similar to a sell recommendation, from the equivalent of a buy, while reversing the call for euro-area equities. The lag of euro stocks versus the U.S. has now made them too cheap to ignore according to JP Morgan strategists.”

Sergio M. Focardi, visiting professor of quantitative finance, Stony Brook University, “When you see markets grow at five times the growth of the economy, clearly we are in a bubble scenario. But one has to be careful in making bursting statements. There’s still a possibility that the Fed and government can steer the economy toward a soft landing.”

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow afternoon in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Yet another quiet non-volatile day. While the rest of the market closed down, the blue chips closed up very fractionally. The Dow was up as much as 40 points and down as much as 30 points, and closed up 13 points or less than 0.1%. Volume was less than 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 13 points or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 1 point, also less than 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed unchanged. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.3% The Russell 2000 closed down 0.8%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.3%.

Gold closed down $3 an ounce at $1,186 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 0.3%.

European Markets mostly closed up yesterday.

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.6%. France’s CAC closed up 0.6%. Belgium closed up 0.2%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed down 0.1%. Greece closed down 1.0%.  Ireland closed up 0.7%. Italy closed up 1.3%. Netherlands closed up 0.5%. Norway closed down 0.2%. Portugal closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 1.6%. Switzerland cl5sed up 0.1%.

Asian Markets closed mixed last night.

Australia closed down 0.3%. China closed down 0.7%. Hong Kong closed down 1.1%. India closed down 0.1%. Indonesia closed up 1.0%. Japan closed up 2.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed up 1.2%. Singapore closed up 0.8%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed up 0.8%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up again this morning.

The London FTSE is up 0.4%. The German DAX is up 1.3%. France’s CAC is up 0.8%. Belgium is up 0.7%. Denmark is up 0.5%. Finland is up 0.8%. Greece is up 2.6%. Ireland is up 0.3%. Italy is up 1.0%. Netherlands is up 0.8%. Norway is up 1.0%. Portugal is up 0.7%. Spain is up 1.2%. Switzerland is up 0.6%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down $0.78 a barrel, at $74.93

Gold is up $10 an ounce at $1,196 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will be will be a fairly heavy week for U.S. economic reports, including Industrial Production, the Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. . To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Yesterday’s reports were that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index improved from 6.2 in October to 10.2 in November, just a tick below the consensus forecast for 10.5. But national Industrial Production unexpectedly declined 0.1% in October, versus the consensus forecast of a rise of 0.2%.

This morning’s report so far is that the Producer Price Index was unexpectedly up 0.2% in October. The consensus forecast was for a decline of 0.1% due to declining oil and energy prices. Still to come is the Housing Market Index, measuring homebuilder sentiment, which will be released at 10 am.

The PPI report had no effect on the pre-open indicators, which have been basically flat all morning.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 10 points or so at the open, meaningless as to direction.

I’ll be back with the next post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow afternoon in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

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 **** End of Today’s post*****

U.S. market is overbought and sentiment needs cooling off.

Saturday, November 15, 9:00 am.

The U.S. stock market remains very overbought short-term above 50-day moving averages, to a degree that almost always brings at least a short-term pullback.

111514c 

111514b

And investor sentiment as measured by the weekly poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) was at 52.7% bullish the previous week, above the warning zone of 50% bullish, with the bearish percentage beneath 20%.

And this week’s poll showed an additional jump in investor bullishness from 52.7% to 57.9%, while bearishness remained below 20% at 19.3%. Needs cooling off.

‘nuff said.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.

U.S. market yesterday.

Yet another quiet non-volatile day. The Dow was up as much as 12 points, down as much as 39, and closed down 18 points, or 0.1%. Volume was just under 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 18 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 closed unchanged. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.1%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.3%.

Gold surged up $28 an ounce to $1,190 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.2%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.5%.

Australia closed up 0.2%. China closed down 0.3%. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 0.1%. Japan closed up 0.6%. Malaysia closed down 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. South Korea closed down 0.8%. Taiwan closed up 0.1%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

European markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 0.1%.

The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.1%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed unchanged. Denmark closed down 0.4%. Finland closed down 0.6%. Greece closed up 0.8%. Ireland closed down 0.7%. Italy closed up 1.0%. Netherlands closed up 0.1%. Norway closed up 1.6%. Portugal closed up 0.1%. Spain closed up 0.1%. Switzerland closed down 0.4%.

Global markets for the week. 

A mixed week globally, but mostly positive. 

THIS WEEK (Nov. 14)
DJIA 17634 +0.4%
S&P 500 2039 +0.4%
NYSE 10880 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4688 +1.2%
NASD 100 4224 +1.5%
Russ 2000 1173 unchg
DJTransprts 9061 +1.3%
DJ Utilities 586 -2.8%
XOI Oils 1,438 -2.4%
Gold bull. 1,189 +1.1%
GoldStcks 70.82 +2.6%
Canada 14843 +1.0%
London 6654 +1.3%
Germany 9252 -0.4%
France 4202 +0.3%
Hong Kong 24087 +2.3%
Japan 17490 +3.6%
Australia 5433 - 1.6%
S. Korea 1945 +0.3%
India 28046 +0.6%
Indonesia 5049 +1.2%
Brazil 51772 -2.7%
Mexico 43371 -2.8%
China 2595 +2.5%
LAST WEEK (Nov. 7)
DJIA 17573 +1.1%
S&P 500 2031 +0.6%
NYSE 10864 +0.2%
NASDAQ 4632 +0.1%
NASD 100 4160 +0.1%
Russ 2000 1173 unchg
DJTransprts 8949 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 603 +1.0%
XOI Oils 1,473 -0.8%
Gold bull. 1,176 +0.4%
GoldStcks 69.04 +6.4%
Canada 14690 +0.5%
London 6567 +0.3%
Germany 9291 -0.4%
France 4189 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23,550 -1.9%
Japan 16880 +2.9%
Australia 5522 +0.3%
S. Korea 1939 -1.3%
India 27868 Unchd
Indonesia 4987 -2.0%
Brazil 53222 -2.6%
Mexico 44614 -0.9%
China 2532 -0.1%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Oct. 31)
DJIA 17390 +3.5%
S&P 500 2018 +2.8%
NYSE 10844 +2.5%
NASDAQ 4630 +3.3%
NASD 100 4158 +2.9%
Russ 2000 1173 +4.9%
DJTransprts 8755 +2.2%
DJ Utilities 597 +2.3%
XOI Oils 1,485 +2.1%
Gold bull. 1,171 -4.8%
GoldStcks 64.88 -14.5%
Canada 14613 +0.5%
London 6546 +2.5%
Germany 9326 +3.8%
France 4233 +2.5%
Hong Kong 23,998 +3.0%
Japan 16413 +7.3%
Australia 5505 +2.0%
S. Korea 1964 +2.0%
India 27865 +3.8%
Indonesia 5089 +0.3%
Brazil 54628 +5.2%
Mexico 45027 +3.1%
China 2534 +5.2%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

NOTE: To gain access subscribe online click here: https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html or call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.).

In the premium content area this morning: Charts and signals on the U.S. stock market, gold, and bonds, signals (long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term), and analysis of each.


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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a fairly heavy week for U.S. economic reports, including Industrial Production, the Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, there is an in-depth Mid-Week Markets update from Wednesday, in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. And the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday

I’ll be back with the next blog post Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

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