Unusual Spikes in Markets Assure Continued Volatility!

Saturday, January 24, 12 noon.

Market reactions to the major happenings of the week were encouraging.

Oil prices continued to fall. The central bank of Switzerland created turmoil in currency markets by taking surprise action to remove the cap on its currency without any advance hints or warnings to markets. Concerns about the threat of global deflation increased. Fourth quarter U.S. earnings continued to be mixed, with disappointing reports sending the offending stocks to the woodshed.

But the ECB came through finally with QE stimulus for the crumbling euro-zone. And that’s all that mattered. Markets rose in advance of the meeting, particularly in Europe, and continued their enthusiasm when the ECB came through.

Great stuff. But the enthusiasm has many global markets outside the U.S. spiked up to very overbought short-term conditions above their 50-day moving averages.

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Such extreme overbought conditions usually result in pullbacks to alleviate the overbought condition.

The situation almost guarantees that brutal short-term volatility will continue.

Yet, it isn’t all countries that are overbought. You have to differentiate.

Some markets are still struggling with the potential resistance at their 50-day m.a.’s.

For instance:

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Other Voices.

Economic historian Barry Eichengreen, MarketWatch interview: “The Swiss National Bank is a small central bank of a small country in the grand scheme of things. If [the SNB] making a surprise move can wrong foot the market so dramatically, imagine what could happen if a big central bank pulled a surprise. . . . . . The cost of a recession in Switzerland and deflation in Switzerland, the SNB having made a serious mistake, has reminded us that financial markets are not as liquid as they have been in the past, and there can be very big market moves as a result of a central bank surprise.”

Associated Press, Jonathan Fahey:  “For the first time since 2009, most Americans are paying less than $2 a gallon for gasoline. Just three months ago experts were shocked when it fell under $3. “It’s crazy," says Michael Noel, an economics professor at Texas Tech University who studies oil and gasoline prices. "But for consumers it’s very, very good."

Reuters, Tim McLaughlin and Svea Herbst-Bayliss: “Venezuela’s deepening economic troubles, and in particular the weakness of the bolivar and restrictive currency controls, have hurt U.S. corporate profits for the fourth quarter of 2014 and are set to inflict further pain this year. In a likely sign of things to come from a number of companies this results reporting season, Ford Motor Co on Friday said it was taking a pre-tax charge of $800 million for its Venezuela business.”

To read my latest newspaper column click here: Central Banks and Economic Reports Keep Bull Market Alive

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation/Deflation’ report there on Monday.

U.S. market yesterday.

Blame it on UPS. A mixed, mostly negative day, most of the loss taking place in the blue chips and Transportation Avg due to the big plunge in UPS stock. Volume was just under 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 141 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.7%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.1%. The DJ Transportation Avg. plunged 1.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.3%.

Gold closed down $6 an ounce at $1,295 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.9%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 1.4%.

Asian markets closed up in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.5%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 1.4%. China closed up 0.3%. Hong Kong closed up 1.3%. India closed up 0.9%. Indonesia closed up 0.9%. Japan closed up 1.0%. Malaysia closed up 1.0%. New Zealand closed up 0.5%. Singapore closed up 1.2%. South Korea closed up 0.8%. Taiwan closed up 1.1%. Thailand closed up 2.4%.

European markets closed up sharply again yesterday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.7%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 2.0%. France’s CAC closed up 1.9%. Belgium closed up 1.4%. Denmark closed up 1.2%. Finland closed up 2.3%. Greece closed up 6.2%.  Ireland closed up 2.1%. Italy closed up 0.2%. Netherlands closed up 1.5%. Norway closed up 0.6%. Portugal closed up 0.5%. Spain closed up 0.7%. Switzerland closed up 2.0%.

Global markets for the week. 

A positive week after three straight down weeks, about how it’s been going for the last year or so, a couple of weeks up, followed by a couple of weeks down, followed by – - – - -.

Big gains in Europe for second straight week, first in anticipation of ECB action, and then in response to it after it happened.

THIS WEEK (Jan. 23)
DJIA 17672 +0.9%
S&P 500 2051 +1.6%
NYSE 10788 +1.2%
NASDAQ 4757 +2.7%
NASD 100 4278 +3.3%
Russ 2000 1188 +1.0%
DJTransprts 8981 +2.5%
DJ Utilities 648 +1.1%
XOI Oils 1,319 +3.0%
Gold bull. 1,295 +1.4%
GoldStcks 78.33 -1.5%
Canada 14779 +3.3%
London 6832 +4.3%
Germany 10649 +4.7%
France 4640 +6.0%
Hong Kong 24,850 + 3.1%
Japan 17511 +3.8%
Australia 5468 +3.6%
S. Korea 1936 +2.5%
India 29278 +4.1%
Indonesia 5323 +3.4%
Brazil 48775 -0.5%
Mexico 42649 +3.0%
China 3512 -0.7%
LAST WEEK (Jan. 16)
DJIA 17511 -1.3%
S&P 500 2019 -1.2%
NYSE 10660 -0.5%
NASDAQ 4634 -1.5%
NASD 100 4142 -1.7%
Russ 2000 1176 -0.8%
DJTransprts 8764 -1.1%
DJ Utilities 640 +2.8%
XOI Oils 1,281 - 1.6%
Gold bull. 1,277 +4.4%
GoldStcks 79.52 +4.4%
Canada 14309 -0.5%
London 6550 +0.8%
Germany 10167 +5.4%
France 4379 +4.8%
Hong Kong 24,103 + 0.8%
Japan 16864 -1.9%
Australia 5278 -3.0%
S. Korea 1888 -1.9%
India 28121 +2.4%
Indonesia 5148 - 1.3%
Brazil 49,016 +0.4%
Mexico 41,402 -2.3%
China 3538 +2.8%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Jan. 9)
DJIA 17737 -0.5%
S&P 500 2044 -0..7%
NYSE 10711 -1.1%
NASDAQ 4704 -0.5%
NASD 100 4213 -0.4%
Russ 2000 1185 -1.1%
DJTransprts 8858 -2.6%
DJ Utilities 623 +0.3%
XOI Oils 1,302 - 3.5%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.9%
GoldStcks 76.17 +8.0%
Canada 14384 -2.5%
London 6501 -0.7%
Germany 9648 -1.2%
France 4179 -1.7%
Hong Kong 23919 + 0.3%
Japan 17197 -1.5%
Australia 5440 +0.5%
S. Korea 1924 -0.1%
India 27458 -1.5%
Indonesia 5216 - 0.5%
Brazil 48840 +0.7%
Mexico 42384 +0.6%
China 3442 +1.6%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a very heavy week for important economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, the first report on 4th quarter GDP, etc. And of course the Fed’s next FOMC meeting. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my latest newspaper column click here: Central Banks and Economic Reports Keep Bull Market Alive

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter from Wednesday is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation/Deflation’ report there on Monday.

I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

Non-Subscribers:

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**** End of Today’s post*****

The ECB Came Through on Stimulus for the Eurozone.

Tuesday, January 22, 9:25 a.m.

In last Saturday’s blog I said this week will be important in defining whether this is just another short-term pullback, whether it may have already ended, or whether it is possibly the beginning of something more serious.

So far it’s been encouraging.

And global markets, particularly in Europe, have been anticipating that it would be.

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So far this week:

China’s market has bounced back fully from its 7.7% mini-crash Sunday night.

There has been little further fallout from the surprise decision last week by Switzerland’s central bank to remove the cap from its currency.

And now we have the highly anticipated decision this morning from the European Central Bank to launch a new round of QE stimulus. And it did come through.

The expectation had grown in recent days that the program would be 50 billion euros of QE purchases per month beginning in March. The announced program is for 60 billion euros a month beginning in March and continuing through September of 2016.

Markets don’t seem to know quite how to react. Pre-open indicators in the U.S. shot up to an anticipated 160 point rise by the Dow, and then pulled back to being up 50 points, about where they were prior to the announcement, and then back up into triple-digits.

Europe’s market reaction has been positive but quite subdued.

There has also been little reaction by gold.

There is a question of whether it is the positive surprise the headline number of 60 billion a month indicates, since the number apparently is the total of QE purchases, including those that were already underway in previous ECB actions.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

A hotline, and the new issue of the newsletter from last evening are in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. )

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

A positive day with some minor volatility. Volume on the high side of average with 0.75 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 39 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.5%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.6%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.5%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.9%.

Gold closed down $1 an ounce at $1,293 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 1.2%.

European Markets closed up again yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.9%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 1.6%. The German DAX closed up 0.4%. France’s CAC closed up 0.9%. Belgium closed up 0.6%. Denmark closed up 0.2%. Finland closed up 1.1%. Greece closed down 2.4%.  Ireland closed up 1.1%. Italy closed up 1.6%. Netherlands closed up 0.7%. Norway closed up 1.0%. Portugal closed up 2.0%. Spain closed up 0.5%. Switzerland closed down 2.1%.

Asian Markets closed up some last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed up 0.4%. China closed up 0.8%. Hong Kong closed up 0.7%. India closed up 0.4%. Indonesia closed up 0.7%. Japan closed up 0.3%. Malaysia closed up 0.9%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. South Korea closed down 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.5%. Taiwan closed up 0.5%. Thailand closed up 1.5%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are positive this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.5%. The German DAX is up 0.6%. France’s CAC is up 1.3%. Belgium is down 0.1%. Denmark is down 0.2%. Finland is up 1.2%. Greece is up 0.1%. Ireland is up 0.3%. Italy is up 1.9%. Netherlands is up 0.5%. Norway is up 0.4%. Portugal is up 1.0%. Spain is up 1.8%. Switzerland is down 1.5%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Gold is up $6 an ounce at $1,299 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a holiday shortened week and a light week for important economic reports, but they will include Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on the holiday Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was the Housing Market Index, measuring the sentiment of home-builders. It ticked down fractionally from 58 in December to 57 in January.

Yesterday’s only report was that new housing starts were up 4.4% in December, lifting the starts for the full year of 2014 to 1.01 million, the best year since 2007.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 10,000 last week to 307,000. The four-week moving average rose by 6,500 to 306,500. Still to come is the PMI Mfg Index, which will be released at 9:45 am.

And from Europe the ECB came through with the expected massive QE stimulus package. The expectation had grown in recent days that the program would be 50 billion euros per month for the next year. The announced program is for 60 billion euros. It has markets in Europe and pre-open futures moving higher in the U.S., more so in the U.S. than in Europe.

Our pre-open indicators were somewhat positive and have become somewhat more so.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 70 points or so in the early going.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

A hotline, and the new issue of the newsletter from last evening are in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. )

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

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This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Pressure Increases on ECB.

Tuesday, January 20, 9:25 a.m.

In a recent newspaper column I said The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half.

The pressure on the ECB to provide a massive QE stimulus program for the 18-nation euro-zone received a further boost this morning with another downward revision of its forecasts for global economic growth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

And China reported this morning that the world’s second largest economy grew only 7.4% in 2014, its slowest growth in 24 years.

I said on Saturday’s blog that this week will be important in defining whether this is just another short-term pullback in the U.S. market, whether it may have already ended, or whether it is possibly the beginning of something more serious.

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Most importantly,

1. We’ll find out more about the fallout from the Swiss shock to currency markets when it unexpectedly lifted the cap on its currency last week.

2. Whether the ECB will launch a massive QE stimulus package for the euro-zone, and if so how large it will be, and how markets will react to it.

3. Whether the pause in the oil price plunge last week was just a pause, or perhaps a sign of a bottom.

4. And 4th quarter earnings reports will continue.

So far:

1. There seems to be little additional fallout from the action of Switzerland’s central bank.

2. There has been further evidence, making it almost a sure thing that the ECB will announce a massive QE type stimulus package for the euro-zone at its meeting on Thursday. Expectations are for a 550 billion euro program. The question now seems to be whether markets will consider that enough. And if they are disappointed, will the ECB come back quickly with more.

If you recall, in September 2012 when the U.S. Fed announced QE3, the initial program was to run only for the four months until the end of 2012. The market was disappointed and sold off some. The Fed then came back with much more on December 12, 2012, with its $trillion a year ‘QE to infinity’ program of $85 billion a month to run through 2013, and perhaps longer. And then the market was satisfied and took off.

It was encouraging that European markets were up Friday and yesterday, and are up again today, indicating they are satisfied so far with the expectations for the ECB plan.

3. Unfortunately, last week’s pause in the oil price plunge seems to have been short-lived with oil prices down again so far this week.

4. The pace of fourth quarter earnings releases will pick up this week.

It still remains that this will be an important week, but so far so good.

Meanwhile, we will just continue to follow our intermediate-term indicators.

Other Voices. 

Felix Zulauf, quoted from Barron’s annual roundtable: ‘2015 Will Be A Trader’s Dream, But an Investor’s Hell’.  “The U.S. stock market hasn’t declined by 10% for the past three and a half years. Extreme readings of investor sentiment reflect a lot of complacency, which usually makes a market vulnerable. A lot of multinational growth stocks are extended on the upside, and cyclicals are extended on the downside. Usually, this situation ends in a big correction. I expect a decline of 15% or so moving into the spring. It could be worldwide, and probably triggered by earnings disappointments in the U.S., due to the strong dollar. I assume central-bank monetary policy will get even easier in the face of this decline.”

Wall Street Journal: “Fed Officials Still on Track to Raise Rates Later This Year. Federal Reserve officials are staying on track to start raising short-term interest rates later this year, even though long-term rates are going in the other direction amid new investor worries about weak global growth, falling oil prices and slowing consumer price inflation.”

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow (in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. )

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

The U.S. stock market was closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

European Markets closed up again yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 1.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.5%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.4%. Belgium closed up 0.8%. Denmark closed up 2.4%. Finland closed up 1.8%. Greece closed up 2.7%.  Ireland closed up 0.9%. Italy closed up 1.2%. Netherlands closed up 0.5%. Norway closed up 2.1%. Portugal closed up 0.8%. Spain closed up 1.2%. Switzerland closed up 3.2%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 0.8%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.1%. China closed up 1.5%. Hong Kong closed up 0.9%. India closed up 1.9%. Indonesia closed up 0.3%. Japan closed up 1.8%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.8%. Singapore closed up 0.8%. Taiwan closed up 0.9%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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NOTE: To gain access call our subscription office at 1-386-943-4081 (week-days only). If you can afford two cups of coffee a week you can afford the cost of 25.95 a month ($6.50 a week). For that you also receive the full Street Smart Report advisory service (newsletter, hotlines, in depth mid-week reports on stocks, gold ,bonds, etc.). Or to subscribe online click here:https://streetsmart.securesites.net/order.html


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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up again this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 0.9%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 0.7%. The German DAX is up 0.1%. France’s CAC is up 1.4%. Belgium is up 0.5%. Denmark is up 0.5%. Finland is up 0.8%. Greece is down 0.1%. Ireland is up 0.2%. Italy is up 1.2%. Netherlands is up 0.9%. Norway is up 0.1%. Portugal is up 0.5%. Spain is up 1.7%. Switzerland is up 1.0%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is down 4.0% at $446.72.

Gold is up $10 an ounce at $1,287 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week will is a holiday shortened week and a light week for important economic reports, but they will include Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports on the holiday Monday.

The only report this morning will be the Housing Market Index, measuring the sentiment of home-builders. It will be released at 10 a.m.

Our pre-open indicators are positive.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 50 points or so in the early going.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow (in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. )

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

Has Pullback Ended or Hardly Begun?

Saturday, January 17, 12:15

A third straight down week. Five straight down days before yesterday’s rally. Ugly.

Yesterday’s strong rally was encouraging. But all the major indexes remain beneath their 50-day moving averages, and it takes more than one day to indicate an upside reversal.

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And although the intraday volatility, downside reversals, and triple-digit daily plunges, have been nerve-wracking, as of Thursday’s close the pullback had only amounted to 4.7% for the S&P 500. So it could well have further to go on the downside and still only be another minor short-term pullback.

Yet yesterday was an encouraging way to end the week.

The Dow was up 1.1%. For our subscribers the day was more positive, with all our holdings beating the Dow, with gains of 1.3%, 1.3%, 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.9%, and 3.2%, and still holding 20% in cash with our eye on a couple of other promising areas.

We need more of the same, and should get it if and when the pullback ends. There are encouraging signs.

I said in my newspaper column last weekend that The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half

And there were increasing signs this week that the ECB is preparing a substantial QE stimulus package that will be announced at its January 22 meeting next week.

Major European markets, closer to the situation than we are in the U.S., seem to believe it, with their strong bounce-back rallies this week, in spite of the turmoil in currency markets created by Switzerland’s surprise lifting of the cap on its currency, and the resulting 13% plunge in its stock market.

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Next week will be important.

Next week will be important in defining whether this is just another short-term pullback, whether it may have already ended, or whether it is possibly the beginning of something more serious.

We’ll find out more about the fallout from the Swiss shock to currency markets.

Next week will also bring the answer as to whether the ECB will launch a QE stimulus package for the 18-nation Eurozone, and if so how large it will be, and how markets will react to it.

We will see whether the pause in the oil price plunge this week was just a pause, or perhaps a sign of a bottom.

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And 4th quarter earnings reports will continue. Reports this week from the major banks were disappointing.

For us, we will simply continue to follow our intermediate-term indicators on the U.S. and global stock markets, bonds, and gold.

Other Voices.

The Fiscal Times, Anthony Mirhaydari: ‘The Bond Market is Warning Of Huge Trouble Ahead’. Something odd is happening in the government bond market. Interest rates are pricing in a debt-deflation cataclysm. How else can you explain that the U.S. 30-year bond yield hit a record low of 2.4% Wednesday. Or that Japanese and German 10-year yields are plumbing record lows? Or that five-year yields of bonds issued by Eurozone safe havens Finland, Germany and Switzerland are in outright negative territory? Something is very wrong here.”

Barron’s, Shuli Ren: Oil Prices May be Bottoming. The International Energy Agency today (Jan. 16) lowered its 2015 forecast for non-OPEC productions and said that the “tide will turn.” HSBC also had a report out today saying “we are seeing leading indicators of weak prices starting to drive the market rebalancing that OPEC is seeking to achieve.” Fingers crossed and let’s hope the worst is over.”

To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth Market Signals Update (stocks, bonds, gold) from Wednesday evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday!

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: We recently updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.

U.S. market yesterday.

Finally a positive day after five straight downers. Volume increased to 0.95 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed up 190 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 1.4%. The Nasdaq closed up 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 1.9%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 1.3%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.0%.

Gold closed up $12 an ounce at $1,277 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.5%.

Bonds (TLT) closed down 1.3%.

Asian markets closed down in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.6%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed up 1.2%. Hong Kong closed down 1.0%. India closed up 0.2%. Indonesia closed down 0.8%. Japan closed down 0.9%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed down 1.1%. South Korea closed down 1.4%. Taiwan closed down 0.3%. Thailand closed down 0.4%.

European markets closed up yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed up 0.5%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed up 0.8%. The German DAX closed up 1.4%. France’s CAC closed down 1.9%. Belgium closed down 1.1%. Denmark closed up 0.1%. Finland closed up 1.3%. Greece closed down 1.8%.  Ireland closed up 0.5%. Italy closed up 2.2%. Netherlands closed up 1.8%. Norway closed down 0.1%. Portugal closed up 1.3%. Spain closed up 0.6%. Switzerland plunged 6.0%.

Global markets for the week. 

A third straight down week for U.S. market, but a nice bounce in major European markets on expectations of stimulus action by the ECB at its meeting next week.

THIS WEEK (Jan. 16)
DJIA 17511 -1.3%
S&P 500 2019 -1.2%
NYSE 10660 -0.5%
NASDAQ 4634 -1.5%
NASD 100 4142 -1.7%
Russ 2000 1176 -0.8%
DJTransprts 8764 -1.1%
DJ Utilities 640 +2.8%
XOI Oils 1,281 - 1.6%
Gold bull. 1,277 +4.4%
GoldStcks 79.52 +4.4%
Canada 14309 -0.5%
London 6550 +0.8%
Germany 10167 +5.4%
France 4379 +4.8%
Hong Kong 24,103 + 0.8%
Japan 16864 -1.9%
Australia 5278 -3.0%
S. Korea 1888 -1.9%
India 28121 +2.4%
Indonesia 5148 - 1.3%
Brazil 49,016 +0.4%
Mexico 41,402 -2.3%
China 3538 +2.8%
LAST WEEK (Jan. 9)
DJIA 17737 -0.5%
S&P 500 2044 -0..7%
NYSE 10711 -1.1%
NASDAQ 4704 -0.5%
NASD 100 4213 -0.4%
Russ 2000 1185 -1.1%
DJTransprts 8858 -2.6%
DJ Utilities 623 +0.3%
XOI Oils 1,302 - 3.5%
Gold bull. 1,223 +2.9%
GoldStcks 76.17 +8.0%
Canada 14384 -2.5%
London 6501 -0.7%
Germany 9648 -1.2%
France 4179 -1.7%
Hong Kong 23919 + 0.3%
Japan 17197 -1.5%
Australia 5440 +0.5%
S. Korea 1924 -0.1%
India 27458 -1.5%
Indonesia 5216 - 0.5%
Brazil 48840 +0.7%
Mexico 42384 +0.6%
China 3442 +1.6%
PREVIOUS WEEK (Jan. 2)
DJIA 17832 -1.2%
S&P 500 2058 -1.4%
NYSE 10830 -1.4%
NASDAQ 4726 -1.7%
NASD 100 4230 -2.0%
Russ 2000 1198 -1.4%
DJTransprts 9098 -1.1%
DJ Utilities 621 -2.2%
XOI Oils 1,349 - 1.2%
Gold bull. 1,188 -0.7%
GoldStcks 70.51 +3.1%
Canada 14753 +1.0%
London 6547 -0.9%
Germany 9764 -1.6%
France 4252 -1.0%
Hong Kong 23857 + 2.2%
Japan 17450 -2.1%
Australia 5415 +0.9%
S. Korea 1926 -1.1%
India 27887 +2.4%
Indonesia 5242 + 1.5%
Brazil 48512 -3.2%
Mexico 42114 -2.1%
China 3389 +2.5%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a holiday shortened week and a light week for important economic reports, but they will include Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, etc. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my latest newspaper column click here:  Gold Rally Has Technical And Fundamental Support

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth Market Signals Update (stocks, bonds, gold) from Wednesday evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out next Wednesday!

NON-SUBSCRIBERS: We recently updated the sample issue of our newsletter to a later issue you may find interesting.

I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

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**** End of Today’s post*****

Upside Volatility Needed.

Thursday, January 15, 9:31 a.m.

As I noted on Saturday’s blog, whipsawing volatility can create a market decline by itself, as investors withdraw from the market to the safety of the sidelines ‘until it sorts itself out’, creating a downdraft from either increased selling, or a lack of buying (or both).

And if such a decline involves days of straight triple-digit declines, panic tends to set in.

The result can be a correction regardless of bullish or bearish surrounding conditions.

And such an outcome is threatening.

011515a

The number of downside reversal days lately, (the bearish pattern of morning strength giving way to afternoon selling) was bad enough. The ‘outside reversal day’ on Tuesday (where the market is first up higher than the previous day’s intraday high, and then reverses to lower than the previous day’s intraday low), and then downside follow through yesterday, added to the precarious position.

It’s not that the pullback has amounted to that much. The S&P 500 is only down 4% from its peak. The problem is the whipsawing volatility and scary downside reversals creating the potential for panic selling.

However, there were some hopeful signs yesterday in the afternoon upturn when, although still closing down, the Dow recovered half of its earlier losses by the close, and in the sizable last hour rally in oil prices.

Those hopeful signs continued overnight and into this morning, in the very positive markets in Asia overnight, in Europe this morning, and in the price of oil.

However, as we have seen on too many days lately, a positive market in the morning these days does not always translate into a positive day by the close. 

So we shall see.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half 

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market. 

Another triple-digit down day for the Dow. But rest of market was not as negative. Volume increased to 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 186 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.5%. The small stock Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.9%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 1.1%.

Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,230.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

Bonds (TLT) closed up 0.8%.

European Markets closed down sharply yesterday.

The Europe Dow closed down 1.8%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE closed down 2.4%. The German DAX closed down 1,2%. France’s CAC closed down 1.6%. Belgium closed down 1.1%. Denmark closed down 1.0%. Finland closed down 1.2%. Greece closed down 1.0%.  Ireland closed down 1.0%. Italy closed down 1.6%. Netherlands closed down 1.3%. Norway closed down 1.3%. Portugal closed up 1.4%. Spain closed down 1.2%. Switzerland closed down 0.9%.

Asian Markets closed up last night.

The Asia Dow closed up 1.2%. Among individual countries:

Australia closed down 0.4%. China closed up 3.5%. Hong Kong closed up 1.0%. India closed up 2.7%. Indonesia closed up 0.6%. Japan closed up 1.9%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed down 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.1%. Singapore closed up 0.4%. Taiwan closed down  0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are up quite strongly this morning.

The Europe Dow is up 1.4%. Among individual countries:

The London FTSE is up 1.1%. The German DAX is up 1.4%. France’s CAC is up 1.7%. Belgium is up 0.7%. Denmark is up 0.1%. Finland is up 0.6%. Greece is down 0.2%. Ireland is up 0.7%. Italy is up 2.2%. Netherlands is up 1.1%. Norway is up 1.0%. Portugal is up 0.6%. Spain is up 0.7%. Switzerland is plunging 9.2%.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

Oil is up $1.15 a barrel at 49.63.

Gold is up $16 an ounce at $1,251 an ounce.

This week’s Economic Reports:

This week is a a fairly quiet week for important economic reports, but they include Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book and several others. To see the full list and times click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s report were the Small Business Optimism Index rose again in December, rising to 100.4 form 98.1 in November. And the Labor Department’s JOLTS Report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), showed job openings were up again in November, up 2.9% to 4.97 million, the largest number in almost 14 years.

Yesterday’s reports were that new mortgage applications surged up 49% last week from the week earlier, as mortgage rate plunged to 3.75%. It was led by a 66% increase in applications to refinance existing mortgages, but applications for home purchase mortgages were also up sharply, 23.6%.  However, Retail Sales unexpectedly fell 0.9% in December, and the World Bank cut its 2015 global growth forecast yet again, this time down to 3.0% from the last forecast of 3.4%. And Fed’s Beige Book found modest or moderate economic growth in most of its 12 regions, but acknowledged that the drop in oil prices has slowed growth in energy-rich regions like Texas. It said that on balance lower oil prices should boost consumer spending and be a plus for the economy.

This morning’s reports are that new weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly jumped by 19,000 last week to 316,000, the highest level since September. The four-week m.a. rose by 6,750 to 298,000. The Producer Price Index was down 0.3% in December, mostly due to the plunge in gasoline costs. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by a slim 0.1%. And the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index improved from -1.2 in December to +10.0 in January. Still to come is the Fed’s Phila Mfg Index, which will be released at 10 a.m.

Our pre-open indicators have improved since the reports, or more likely in reaction to positive markets in Asia overnight and in Europe today.

Our Pre-open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 50 points or so in the early going.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  The ECB Will Be a Big Factor in 2015′s First Half 

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:

In addition to the charts and analysis in the subscribers area of this blog, there is an in-depth markets report (stock market, bonds, gold) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

Non-Subscribers:

If you haven’t done so yet, check out our new bull market/bear market indicator (BBMI) by clicking here: Market Timing Strategy

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

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  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

 **** End of Today’s post*****

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